特朗普总统越来越多地将矛头指向穆斯林政治人物和社区，试图在选举日前的最后冲刺阶段动员其基本盘。
President Trump has increasingly singled out Muslim politicians and communities in a bid to rally his base in the final push before election day.
为何重要：特朗普的言论可能会在势均力敌的选战中激发部分共和党选民的投票热情，但这一策略也可能疏远那些认为这些言论是在散布恐惧或具有歧视性的人。
Why it matters: Trump's comments could energize some Republican voters in close races, but the strategy could alienate those who see the rhetoric as fearmongering or discriminatory
新闻驱动：特朗普周一在密歇根州为共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯举行的集会上发表讲话，其中多次抨击民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的穆斯林信仰。
Driving the news: Trump's Monday appearance at a Michigan rally for GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers included several barbs at Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim faith.
- 特朗普暗示埃尔-赛义德构成安全威胁，称：“他将是唯一一位在获准进入参议院之前必须通过金属探测器的参议员。”
• Trump suggested that El-Sayed posed a security threat, saying, "He would be the only senator that will have to go through a metal detector before he's allowed to go into the Senate."
- 他还称埃尔-赛义德为“圣战分子”，毫无根据地声称这位参议员候选人想在密歇根州推行伊斯兰教法，并再次指控他与穆斯林兄弟会有联系。
• He also called El-Sayed a "jihadist," baselessly claimed the Senate candidate wants to impose sharia law in Michigan, and again accused him of having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
- 埃尔-赛义德多次否认与极端组织有联系，也没有任何证据表明他与穆斯林兄弟会有关联。他的竞选团队未回应置评请求。
• El-Sayed has repeatedly denied ties to extremist groups, and no evidence has emerged linking him to the Muslim Brotherhood. His campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
言外之意：共和党政治顾问丹尼斯·达尔诺伊告诉Axios，特朗普的言论在密歇根州“无论从哪个方向来说都不会真正改变局势”，因为当地选民此前已经听过类似的话。
Between the lines: Republican political consultant Dennis Darnoi told Axios that Trump's rhetoric "doesn't really move the needle one way or the other" in Michigan, where voters have heard similar language before.
- 达尔诺伊说，这一策略可能会“激发和动员”特朗普的基本盘。但这也可能让那些在初选中支持埃尔-赛义德对手黑利·史蒂文斯的犹太裔和黑人民主党人，在11月不愿支持他。
• Darnoi says the strategy could "energize and mobilize" Trump's base. But it could also discourage Jewish and Black Democrats who backed El-Sayed's primary opponent, Haley Stevens, from supporting him in November.
- “这并不总是关乎获胜，但如果你能尽量缩小自己的败选幅度，然后进入更多共和党选区，鼓动投票率、拉大自己的胜选优势，那么你就能赢下一场非常胶着的全州选举。”
• "It's not always about winning, but if you can minimize the size of your loss and then go into more Republican areas and gin up your turnout and gin up your margin of victory, then you can win a very close statewide race."
数据说话：密歇根州立大学周一发布的一项民调显示，约38%的密歇根州可能选民表示，他们不太可能支持一位穆斯林候选人。
By the numbers: About 38% of Michigan likely voters said they would be less likely to support a Muslim candidate, according to a Michigan State University poll released Monday.
- 但58%的人表示，候选人是否是穆斯林不会有什么影响，而52%的人表示，特朗普的背书会让他们更不可能支持某位政客。
• But 58% said a candidate's being Muslim would make no difference, while 52% said a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to support a politician.
他们这么说：特朗普和共和党的一些人“选择将偏执和种族主义”作为他们的选举策略，“因为他们没有其他信息可以拿来竞选”，穆斯林公共事务委员会负责政策与项目的副总裁哈里斯·塔林对Axios表示。
What they're saying: Trump and some in the GOP "have chosen to use bigotry and racism" as their election strategy "because there's no other message they're able to run on," Haris Tarin, vice president of policy and programming at the Muslim Public Affairs Council, tells Axios.
- 他补充说，选民或政客是否同意埃尔-赛义德的政策并不重要，“所有这些都可以辩论。但他们选择不辩论这些问题。他们选择在人们心中灌输恐惧，散布谎言，纯粹的谎言。”
• He added that it doesn't matter if voters or politicians agree with El-Sayed's policies, "all of that is up for debate. But they've chosen not to debate the issues. They've chosen to instill fear in people, promote lies, pure lies."
- 塔林预测，这些攻击将“对美国穆斯林以及全体美国人产生相反的效果”。
• Tarin predicted the attacks would have "an opposite effect for both American Muslims and Americans in general."
另一方：一位白宫发言人在发给Axios的电子邮件声明中表示，“特朗普总统正在揭露那些煽动分裂、欺诈自己社区并持续制造暴力的激进极端分子。”
The other side: A White House spokesperson told Axios in an emailed statement that "President Trump is calling out the radical extremists stoking division, defrauding their communities, and perpetuating violence."
- “总统将继续毫无歉意地为美国的伟大而战，并毫无歉意地揭露像阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·穆罕默德·埃尔-赛义德这样的极端分子。”
• "The President will continue to unapologetically fight for American greatness and call out extremists like Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed without apology."
拉远来看：特朗普并非个例。今年已有数名共和党议员发表反穆斯林言论。
Zoom out: Trump isn't alone. Several Republican lawmakers have made anti-Muslim comments this year.
- 特朗普还多次针对索马里裔美国人和众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔（民主党-明尼苏达州），此前还称索马里移民是“垃圾”。索马里人主要信奉伊斯兰教。
• Trump has also repeatedly targeted Somali Americans and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), and previously called Somali immigrants "garbage." Somalis predominantly practice Islam.
温和派和独立人士是否会中招，或者这些攻击是否会在美国穆斯林和其他选民中适得其反。
Whether moderates and independents take the bait, or whether the attacks backfire with Muslim Americans and other voters.