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中国家庭现在赡养的老年人数量超过抚养的儿童China's families are now supporting more old people than kids

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2026年10月18日,在中国浙江省湖州,重阳节期间,老年居民在社区照料中心品尝长寿面,志愿者陪伴在侧。Elderly residents taste longevity noodles while volunteers accompany them at a community care center during the Double Ninth Festival, also known as Chongyang Festival, on October 18, 2026 in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province of China.

最新数据标志着一个重大里程碑,北京正努力应对人口老龄化问题。

The latest figures mark a major milestone as Beijing grapples with an ageing population.

中国政府表示,中国家庭首次出现需要赡养的老年人数量超过儿童的情况。

By Osmond Chia Families in China are for the first time supporting more elderly people than children, the country's government has said.

上周发布的官方数据显示,去年中国老年抚养比与劳动年龄人口之比升至23%,超过了儿童抚养比的22%。

Official data released in the last week show the ratio of China's dependent elderly people compared to the working age population rose to 23% last year, overtaking the figure for children, which stood at 22%.

这些数据受到密切关注,因为它们能反映中国劳动力萎缩将如何影响这个世界第二大经济体以及全球整体增长。

The numbers are closely watched for signs of how China's shrinking workforce will impact both the world's second largest economy and global growth as a whole.

分析人士称,最新数据标志着一个重要里程碑,中国正面临人口老龄化问题,这可能对家庭、养老金和医疗支出产生影响。

The latest figures mark a significant milestone as China grapples with an ageing population that could have implications for families, pensions and healthcare spending, analysts say.

近年来,中国一直在为老年人口比例不断上升做准备,同时鼓励年轻一代结婚、鼓励夫妻多生孩子。

China has been preparing for a growing proportion of elderly people in recent years, while urging younger generations to get married and for couples to have more children.

中国国家统计局的最新数据显示,目前中国65岁及以上人口超过2.23亿,占全国总人口的近16%。与此同时,14岁及以下儿童约有2.13亿。

The latest data from China's National Bureau of Statistics show there are now more than 223 million people in China aged 65 and above, accounting for nearly 16% of the country's total population. At the same time there are about 213 million children aged 14 and under.

官方没有随统计数据发布评论。但中国官方媒体《环球时报》写道,中国“进入中度老龄化社会”是多种因素共同作用的结果,包括“过去出生人口规模”和更长的预期寿命。

No official commentary was published with the statistics. But Chinese state-controlled news outlet Global Times wrote that the nation's "entry into a moderately ageing society" is the result of a mix of factors, including the "size of past birth cohorts" and longer life expectancy.

该报称,这一转变可能给养老金、医疗和长期护理系统带来额外压力,同时也为迎合老年消费者的所谓“银发经济”创造机遇。

The shift could place added strain on pension, healthcare and long-term care systems, while also creating opportunities in the so-called silver economy that caters to older consumers, the newspaper said.

《环球时报》援引一位研究人员的话说:“这反映的是人口发展的历史趋势,而非短期现象。”

"It reflects a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon," Global Times quoted one researcher as saying.

香港科技大学的斯图尔特·吉特尔-巴斯滕教授表示,这一人口结构变化具有“象征意义”,可能意味着更多公共支出将从家庭和学校转向养老金和医疗保健。

The demographic shift is "symbolic" and could suggest more public spending will move from families and schools to pensions and healthcare, said Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten from The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

新加坡国立大学社会学讲师穆峥表示,这也可能对中国的雄心构成挑战,因为它可能限制经济增长以及民众的消费能力。

It may also pose a challenge to the country's ambitions, as it could limit its economic growth as well as people's spending power, said National University of Singapore sociology lecturer Mu Zheng.

中国的出生率多年来一直在下降。Birth rates in China have been falling for years now

中国人口老龄化是多种因素共同作用的结果,包括快速城市化以及颇具争议的独生子女政策的影响,该政策从1980年实施至2015年底。

China's ageing population has been driven by a mix of factors, including rapid urbanisation and the effects of the controversial one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to the end of 2015.

这项旨在控制中国人口快速增长的战略,据中国政府估计,自实施以来已避免了约4亿例出生,不过这一数字存在争议。

The strategy, designed to keep China's rapid population growth under control, is estimated by the country's government to have prevented about 400 million births since it began, though this number has been contested.

穆峥表示,该政策在人口缩减中发挥了关键作用,这意味着支撑日益增多的老年亲属的年轻人变少了。

The policy played a key role in shrinking the population and means there are fewer younger people to support a growing number of elderly relatives, Mu said.

但尽管放宽了家庭生育数量的限制,北京一直难以说服夫妇多生孩子,出生率降至历史低点。

But despite easing restrictions on the size of families, Beijing has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, with birth rates hitting historic lows.

穆峥表示,其他促成因素包括性别角色的变化、生活成本上升以及教育水平提高对生育率造成的压力。

Other contributing factors include changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels that have put pressure on fertility rates, Mu said.

北京在今年早些时候公布的五年经济规划中,将进一步支持老年人列为措施的一部分。

Beijing made further support for older people a part of the measures in its five-year economic blueprint that was announced earlier this year.

对养老金领取者的财政补助在中国政府支出中所占比重日益增大。官方数据显示,截至2025年底,超过5300万老年人领取高龄津贴和补贴。

Financial help for pensioners has been a growing part of Chinese government spending. More than 53 million elderly people were receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025, according to official figures.

《环球时报》指出,许多进入老年阶段、出生于20世纪50年代至70年代的人,收入普遍高于前几代人,购买力更强,也更健康。

The Global Times noted that many people entering old age who were born between the 1950s and the 1970s have generally higher incomes compared to previous generations, stronger purchasing power and are healthier.

抚养比被广泛用于衡量人口老龄化程度,但也受到一些专家质疑,认为其范围过于有限。

The dependency ratio is widely-used to measure ageing populations but it has also been questioned by some experts who argue that its scope is too limited.

吉特尔-巴斯滕表示,使用该统计指标有“剥夺老年人主体性”的风险——他指出,许多老年人被错误地描述为受抚养人。他补充说,该指标也没有考虑到医疗条件的改善。

Gietel-Basten said the use of the statistics risks "taking agency away" from older people - many of whom he says have been misrepresented as dependants. It also does not take into account improvements to healthcare, he added.

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