巴以双方在以色列大选中取得的重大进展，对以色列主流反对阵营构成了紧迫而根本性的挑战：要么与阿拉伯裔以色列人合作，要么将本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的政治生存路线图交给他。
The big gains made by Palestinian parties in Israel’s general election pose an urgent and fundamental challenge to the country’s mainstream opposition: either cooperate with Arab Israelis or hand Benjamin Netanyahu a roadmap to political survival.
在周二出口民调公布后，反对阵营领导人加迪·艾森科特宣布这是“以色列犹太民族多数”的胜利，但真正的结果看起来远比这复杂得多。
In the wake of Tuesday’s exit polls, the leader of the opposition bloc, Gadi Eisenkot, declared them a victory for “Israel’s Zionist national majority” but the real outcome looks as if it will be far more complex than that.
新议会与旧议会之间最大的变化将是巴勒斯坦政党席位的大幅增加，预计将赢得17至18席，较此前10席大幅上升。这重新划定了以色列政治版图上的斗争界限。阿拉伯裔以色列人不会再轻易被边缘化、被忽视。
The greatest change between the new Knesset and the old will be the dramatically increased representation of Palestinian parties, which are projected to win 17 to 18 seats, up from 10. That redraws the battle lines on Israel’s political landscape. Arab Israelis will not so easily be sidelined and ignored.
出口民调显示艾森科特的反对阵营在内塔尼亚胡执政联盟及其支持者之间取得微弱领先，尽管总理利库德集团仍可能是最强单一政党。
The exit polls gave a narrow lead to Eisenkot’s opposition bloc over Netanyahu’s governing coalition and its supporters, though the prime minister’s Likud party could still be the strongest single party.
若实际结果得到确认，这将赋予以色列总统伊扎克·赫尔佐格在组建政府时更大的选择余地。如果某位候选人六周内无法成功组阁，挑战将传递给下一位选项。这可能是一个极其漫长的过程，在此期间内塔尼亚胡的联盟将以看守政府身份继续执政。
If confirmed by actual results, that would give Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, discretion over who he asks first to try to form a government. If one candidate cannot succeed in six weeks, the challenge is passed on to the next option. It could be an extremely long process, and all this time Netanyahu’s coalition would stay on in a caretaker role.
艾森科特将主张自己掌控更大的整体阵营，拥有争取议会多数席位更好的谈判机会。然而，要实现这一点，“变革”阵营的他和他的伙伴们将不得不与巴勒斯坦政治团体坐下来谈判，包括联合名单和拉阿姆（United Arab List的缩写）。
Eisenkot will argue that he commands the bigger overall bloc and has the better chance of negotiating his way to a Knesset majority. To do so, however, he and his partners in the “change” bloc would be obliged to sit down to talk with the Palestinian groupings, the Joint List and Ra’am (an acronym for the United Arab List).
他们可能会发现，与拉姆党及其领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯打交道更容易。阿巴斯曾加入纳夫塔利·贝内特的右翼政府，而贝内特现在是艾森科特阵营中的次要合作伙伴。阿巴斯有一位犹太复国主义副手，他表现出愿意做出政治妥协的态度，并在周二强调说，他的首要任务是“在这次选举中拉下本雅明·内塔尼亚胡、[贝扎莱尔]·斯莫特里赫和[伊塔马尔]·本-格维尔”。
They would probably find Ra’am and its leader, Mansour Abbas, easier to talk to. Abbas has already participated in a right-leaning government of Naftali Bennett, now a junior partner in the Eisenkot bloc. Abbas has a Jewish Zionist deputy, he has shown willingness to make political compromises and stated emphatically on Tuesday that his priority is to “bring down Benjamin Netanyahu, [Bezalel] Smotrich, and [Itamar] Ben-Gvir in this election”.
不过，多数基于出口民调的估计显示，拉姆党是两个巴勒斯坦团体中较小的一个，预计在新一届以色列议会中占7席。即便在艾森科特阵营其他成员同意的情况下达成协议，这些席位是否足以组成一个多数政府仍不清楚。
However, most estimates based on the exit polls show Ra’am as the smaller of the two Palestinian groupings, with seven projected seats in the new Knesset and it is not clear that would be enough, even if a pact was made with the consent of the other members of Eisenkot’s bloc, to produce a majority government.
与预计拥有10个或更多席位的联合名单谈判将更加困难。艾森科特提出了四个条件：承认以色列是一个犹太民主国家；接受以色列《独立宣言》所表达的价值观；接受以色列籍巴勒斯坦公民服兵役，而这些人目前免服兵役；以及谴责哈马斯是恐怖组织。
Negotiations with the Joint List, with 10 or more projected seats, would be tougher. Eisenkot has laid down four conditions: recognise Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accept the values expressed in Israel’s declaration of independence, accept conscription for Palestinian Israeli citizens, who are exempt, and denounce Hamas as a terrorist organisation.
周二，在点票进行之际，联合名单中最大派别——社会主义政党哈达什的总书记阿姆贾德·什比塔表示，艾森科特将无法为联盟谈判强加条件。
Speaking on Tuesday as the votes were being counted, Amjad Shbita, the general secretary of Hadash, the socialist party that is the biggest faction in the Joint List, said Eisenkot would be in no position to impose terms for coalition talks.
“向联合名单强加条件是行不通的，”什比塔说。“我们将平等谈判，因为我们需要彼此。”如果无法与其中一个或两个巴勒斯坦团体达成协议，艾森科特可能会尝试以少数派政府执政，依靠非正式的逐次表决协议来维持新联盟的运转。
“Laying down conditions won’t work with the Joint List,” Shbita said. “We will negotiate as equals because we need each other.”In the absence of an agreement with one or both of the Palestinian groupings, it is possible that Eisenkot could try to govern as a minority government, with informal vote-by-vote agreements that would keep the new coalition afloat.
这将是一个不稳定的解决方案，极有可能导致再次举行大选。这将使内塔尼亚胡有机会在保守派以色列犹太人中间凝聚支持，并宣称他的竞选口号“右翼，还是巴勒斯坦”得到证实，这句口号在希伯来语中押韵。
It would be an unstable solution, making another election more than likely. That would provide Netanyahu the opportunity to rally support among conservative Israeli Jews and claim to have been vindicated in his campaign slogan, “the Right or Palestine”, which rhymes in Hebrew.
内塔尼亚胡在他处于或接近权力顶峰的三十年间曾多次看似落败，但每次都凭借其作为交易撮合者无与伦比的战术技巧东山再起。目前还没有人排除他再次上演惊人政治逃脱的可能性，但这一次，如果他果真卷土重来，他的复活将归功于他公开宣称的政治敌人向他抛出救命稻草，而非跨越以色列深刻的种族鸿沟做出历史性妥协。
Netanyahu has looked beaten before over his three decades at or near the top, and staged a comeback each time with the aid of his unparalleled tactical skills as a dealmaker. No one is yet ruling out another breathtaking political escape but this time, if he does bounce back, he would owe his resurrection to his avowed political enemies for dropping him a lifeline rather than make historic compromises across Israel’s deep racial divide.
周三凌晨在拿撒勒举行的联合名单党胜利庆祝活动上，一名党内官员说：“犹太复国主义反对派将不得不在至上地位和建设民主之间做出选择。”
Speaking from the Joint List victory party in Nazareth in the early hours of Wednesday, one party official said: “The Zionist opposition will have to choose between supremacy and building democracy.”