以色列周五公布的两项民意调查——这是选举临近时法律允许的最后一次民调——预测，现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的集团将在120席的议会中获得50个席位，而由加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派阵营将获得52个席位，周二将举行议会选举。
Two opinion polls published Friday in Israel – the last legally allowed as elections loom – projected 50 seats for incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 52 for the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot, ahead of Tuesday’s parliamentary elections.
公共广播电台KAN和私营的第12频道在投票前四天发布了这两项调查。两项调查对两大阵营的总席位数显示相同，但在各政党的席位分配上存在差异。
Public broadcaster KAN and private Channel 12 released the surveys four days before the vote. Both showed identical totals for the two main camps, but differed on how seats were distributed among parties.
根据第12频道的民调，艾森科特的正直党将赢得22个席位，紧随其后的是内塔尼亚胡的利库德党，获得20个席位，前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特的在一起党获得14个席位。
Eisenkot’s Yashar party would win 22 seats, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 20, and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Together party with 14, according to Channel 12’s poll.
由国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔领导的犹太力量党、由阿维格多·利伯曼领导的以色列我们的家园党，以及由亚伊尔·戈兰领导的民主党，各自预计将赢得8个席位。
Jewish Power, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir; Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman; and the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, were each projected to win eight seats.
宗教犹太复国主义—泽胡特联盟预计将获得9个席位，沙斯党7个席位，犹太经文妥拉统一党8个席位，阿拉伯统一名单5个席位。
The Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance was projected to get nine seats, Shas seven, United Torah Judaism eight, and the United Arab List five.
该民调预测哈达什-塔阿尔联盟将获得8个席位，亨德尔-泽莱卡联盟将获得4个席位。
The poll gave Hadash–Ta’al eight projected seats and the Hendel–Zelekha alliance four.
根据第12频道的阵营细分，艾森科特的阵营将获得52个席位，内塔尼亚胡的集团50个席位，阿拉伯政党14个席位，亨德尔-泽莱卡联盟4个席位。
According to Channel 12’s bloc breakdown, Eisenkot’s camp would get 52 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, Arab parties 14, and the Hendel–Zelekha alliance four.
KAN的民调也预测艾森科特的政党将获得22个席位，利库德党20个席位，贝内特的政党14个席位，与第12频道对三大最大政党的调查结果一致。
KAN’s poll also projected 22 seats for Eisenkot’s party, 20 for Likud, and 14 for Bennett’s party, matching Channel 12’s findings for the three largest parties.
民主党、以色列我们的家园党、犹太力量党和犹太经文妥拉统一党各将获得8个席位，沙斯党和宗教犹太复国主义—泽胡特联盟各获得7个席位。
The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Jewish Power, and United Torah Judaism would each get eight seats, with Shas and the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance seven apiece.
哈达什、塔阿尔和巴拉德的联合名单将获得9个席位，阿拉伯统一名单为5个席位。预备役党和经济党各将获得4个席位。
The joint slate of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad would get nine seats, with the United Arab List at five. The Reservists party and the Economic Party would each get four.
KAN同样将内塔尼亚胡的集团定为50个席位，艾森科特的阵营为52个席位。
KAN likewise put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats and Eisenkot’s camp at 52.
主要调查结果：
- 宗教锡安主义与Zehut联盟的差异：在KAN的民意调查中，该联盟获得了7个席位；而在Channel 12的调查显示，该联盟获得了9个席位。
Prominent difference The most prominent difference between the surveys concerned the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance, which would get seven seats in KAN’s poll compared with nine in Channel 12’s.
- 阿拉伯政党联盟的席位预测： KAN预测阿拉伯政党联盟将获得9个席位，而Channel 12的调查显示Hadash–Ta’al联盟将获得8个席位。
KAN also projected nine seats for the joint Arab slate, compared with eight for Hadash–Ta’al in Channel 12’s survey.
- 各政党席位变化：内塔尼亚胡领导的阵营在KAN的民意调查中席位减少了1个（从上周的51个降至48个），而艾森科特领导的阵营席位保持不变（仍为52个）。
In KAN’s poll, Netanyahu’s bloc fell one seat from 51 the previous week, while Eisenkot’s camp remained unchanged at 52. Likud and Yashar each lost one seat, while Bennett’s party gained two, reaching 14.
利库德党和Yashar党各自失去了1个席位，而本内特领导的政党则增加了2个席位，目前拥有14个席位。
On suitability for prime minister, KAN found Netanyahu and Bennett tied at 38% for the first time since late August.
- 总理人选的民意： KAN的调查显示，内塔尼亚胡和本内特的支持率首次持平（均为38%）；在之前的调查中，内塔尼亚胡的支持率仍高于本内特（38%对34%）。
Netanyahu had led Bennett 38% to 34% in the previous survey. In a separate matchup, Eisenkot got 44% support compared with Netanyahu’s 38%.
在单独的对比中，艾森科特的支持率为44%，内塔尼亚胡的支持率为38%。
Against Bennett, Eisenkot got 35%, compared with Bennett's 22%, while 43% considered neither suitable to lead the government.
当被问及“谁更适合担任总理”时，35%的受访者认为艾森科特更合适，而本内特的支持率为22%；另有43%的受访者认为两人都不适合领导政府。
On turnout, 71% of respondents said they were certain they would vote. The figure reached 80% among opposition supporters and 75% among supporters of governing coalition parties.
- 投票意愿： 71%的受访者表示肯定会投票；在反对党支持者中，这一比例高达80%，而在执政联盟的支持者中为75%。
The survey also found that 36% of voters had not definitively decided which party to support, up from 30% in the previous poll.
- 选民投票意向： 36%的受访者尚未确定支持哪个政党（这一比例较上次调查上升了30%）。
Security perception On security, 58% rated Israel’s situation as poor, compared with 37% who described it as good.
- 对以色列安全局势的看法： 58%的受访者认为以色列的安全局势不佳，37%的人认为情况良好；在反对党支持者中，这一比例上升至73%，而在执政联盟的支持者中为28%。
The proportion describing the security situation as poor reached 73% among opposition supporters and 28% among governing coalition supporters.
- 对不同政治结果的偏好：如果艾森科特领导的阵营获胜但未能获得61个席位，27%的受访者支持组建联合政府，27%的人希望重新举行选举；另有26%的受访者支持由反对党组成的少数派政府（前提是阿拉伯政党不参与投票反对该政府）。
Asked about their preferred outcome if Eisenkot’s camp finished ahead of Netanyahu’s without reaching 61 seats, 27% favored a unity government and another 27% preferred fresh elections. A further 26% supported a minority government formed by the change camp, with Arab parties abstaining from voting against it.
在执政联盟的支持者中，47%的人希望重新举行选举，而在反对党支持者中，45%的人支持组建少数派政府。
Among supporters of the governing coalition, 47% preferred another election, while 45% of opposition supporters backed a minority government.
民调显示，两大阵营都无法单独获得组建政府所需的61个议会席位多数。
The polls indicated that neither main camp would secure the 61-seat parliamentary majority needed to form a government on its own.
以色列法律规定，从选举日前一个星期五结束到投票站关闭，禁止公布新的选举民调结果。
Under Israeli law, publishing new election poll results is prohibited from the end of the Friday preceding Election Day until polling stations close.
以色列民主研究所表示，该限制于2007年采用，旨在防止选举前夕通过民调传播误导性信息和操纵公众舆论。
The Israel Democracy Institute says the restriction was adopted in 2007 to prevent misleading information and manipulating public opinion through polls shortly before elections.