欧洲主权债务担忧开始显现于企业借贷成本中，高盛表示，这可能导致部分企业用于投资或回报股东的现金减少。
Europe's sovereign debt worries are starting to show up in corporate borrowing costs, potentially leaving some companies with less cash to invest or return to shareholders, according to Goldman Sachs.
欧洲企业借款人正面临双向挤压——政府债务收益率上升，以及美国超大规模科技公司债券发行激增，加剧了对资本的竞争。
Corporate borrowers in Europe are being squeezed from two directions — rising yields in government debt and surging U.S. hyperscalers' bond issuance, which is increasing competition for capital.
高盛在10月23日的报告中指出，超大规模科技公司债务发行规模预计将从2026年的2500亿美元增至2027年的4200亿美元，而全球人工智能项目融资规模可能翻倍至3000亿美元，因为科技巨头越来越多地转向债券市场为AI投资建设提供资金。
Hyperscaler debt issuance is set to increase from $250 billion in 2026 to $420 billion in 2027, Goldman Sachs said in an Oct. 23 note, while global artificial intelligence project finance could double to $300 billion as tech giants increasingly turn to bond markets to fund the AI investment build-out.
这发生在全球借贷成本上升的背景下。法国10年期国债（即OAT）收益率于10月21日突破5%，为2002年以来首次。与德国10年期国债的利差次日触及177个基点以上，市场担忧风险向欧洲其他地区蔓延。
That comes against a backdrop of rising borrowing costs globally. Yields on France's 10-year government bonds, known as OATs, moved beyond 5% on Oct. 21 for the first time since 2002. The spread over Germany's 10-year Bunds peaked at more than 177 basis points a day later, amid concerns about spillover risks elsewhere in Europe.
包括美国、英国和日本在内的发达经济体今年也面临类似的借贷压力。
Developed economies including the U.S., the U.K. and Japan have also faced similar borrowing pressures this year.
债务成本上升 随着信贷条件收紧，高盛分析师表示，较高的利息成本开始侵蚀企业利润率。
Debt costs rise With credit conditions tightening, Goldman analysts said higher interest costs are now starting to eat into company margins.
他们指出，自9月初以来，欧洲投资级债券收益率已上升约30个基点至4.4%，相对于主权无风险利率的利差扩大约24个基点至117个基点。
They noted that investment-grade yields in Europe have risen about 30 basis points to 4.4% since the start of September, with spreads to the sovereign risk-free rate widening by some 24 basis points to 117 basis points.
与此同时，高收益借贷成本攀升约90个基点至7%，利差扩大94个基点至354个基点。
At the same time, high-yield borrowing costs have climbed around 90 basis points to 7%, with spreads widening by 94 basis points to 354 basis points.
高盛表示，随着再融资成本稳步上升，斯托克欧洲600指数成分股公司的利息支出占销售额比重已从2022年的1.25%增至1.85%。该行分析师称，这60个基点的增幅已使该期间盈利缩减逾5%。
Interest expense has increased from 1.25% to 1.85% of sales among Stoxx 600 companies since 2022 as refinancing costs have steadily risen, Goldman said. That 60 basis point increase has cut earnings by more than 5% over that period, according to the bank's analysts.
对于债务即将到期或借贷成本随利率重置的公司而言，压力可能会加剧。
The strain could intensify for companies with debt coming due or borrowing costs that reset with interest rates.
“斯托克600指数成分股债务的平均期限约为七年；四分之一必须在未来两年内再融资，另有四分之一为浮利率债务，”高盛分析师表示。
"The average maturity of Stoxx 600 debt is around seven years; one quarter must be refinanced within the next two years and a further quarter is floating-rate debt," Goldman analysts said.
他们指出：“因此，较高利率可能相对较快地传导至约一半的债务。”谁比较脆弱？
"Higher rates could therefore feed through to around half of the debt relatively quickly," they noted.
高盛分析师表示，这使得现金流生成能力弱、定价权有限、近期有再融资需求或拥有大量浮利率债务的公司面临特别大的风险敞口。“收益率上升增加了它们的融资成本，而利差扩大则加剧了面临近期再融资需求公司的压力。”这种压力可能迫使一些管理团队将资产负债表置于现金其他用途之上。
Who is vulnerable? That leaves companies with weak cash generation, limited pricing power, near-term refinancing needs or significant floating-rate debt particularly exposed, Goldman analysts said. "Rising yields increase their financing costs, while wider spreads compound the pressure on those facing near-term refinancing requirements."
分析师称：“因此，管理团队越来越专注于降低杠杆，可能将资金从投资或股东回报中转移出去。”
The pressure could force some management teams to prioritize their balance sheets over other uses of cash.
高盛分析师表示，他们不预期会出现“系统性信用事件”，并指出大宗商品价格缓和、通胀和利率回落，以及2027年增长改善的组合因素，应有助于缓解资产负债表压力。
"Management teams are consequently becoming more focused on reducing leverage, potentially diverting capital away from investment or shareholder returns," the analysts said.
相反，他们将债务成本上升视为部分公司的“日益增强的制约因素”，特别是在盈利动能放缓构成另一逆风之际。
Goldman analysts said they do not expect a "systemic credit event," noting that a mix of easing commodity prices, moderating inflation and interest rates, and improved growth in 2027 should help temper balance-sheet stress.
高盛预计，明年欧洲盈利增幅将不足10%，低于今年的约20%；美国盈利增幅将不足15%，低于今年的30%以上。
Instead, they see the rising cost of debt as a "growing constraint" for some companies, particularly as slowing earnings momentum creates another headwind.
固定收益机会 瑞银蓝湾资产管理市场策略主管迈克·贝尔表示，借贷成本上升不太可能给投资级企业借款人带来重大问题。
Goldman expects earnings to grow by less than 10% in Europe next year, down from about 20% this year, and by less than 15% in the U.S., down from more than 30%.
但他警告称，这一转变增加了投资者在高收益信用债方面更具选择性的必要性。
Fixed income opportunities Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said rising borrowing costs are unlikely to pose a major problem for investment-grade corporate borrowers.
“我们认为，债券收益率上升的主要含义在于，政府债券、投资级企业债、证券化信贷以及精选高收益债券目前提供的收益率，在风险收益比方面相对于股票显得越来越具吸引力，”贝尔在接受CNBC采访时表示。“我们建议多元资产投资者考虑，从当前较高的周期性调整市盈率这一起点出发，他们切实预期美国股票在未来几年能带来怎样的回报，并将这些预期股票回报与固定收益领域各类资产提供的收益率进行对比，”贝尔说。
But he warned that the shift increases the need for investors to be more selective in high-yield credit. "The main implication of higher bond yields in our view is that the yields now available on government bonds, investment grade corporate credit, securitized credit and select high yield credit look increasingly compelling on a risk versus reward basis relative to equities," Bell told CNBC in an "We would encourage multi-asset investors to consider what they realistically expect U.S. equities to deliver over the coming years from the starting point of the currently elevated cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio and compare those expected equity returns with the yields available across the fixed income universe," Bell said.
“当我们这样做时，会让我们认为，与许多发达市场股票相比，固定收益资产开始显得越来越具吸引力。”
"When we do that, it makes us think that fixed income is starting to look increasingly attractive compared with many developed market stocks."