Japan’s push to expand industrial and port cooperation with Bangladesh could transform the South Asian country into a regional trade gateway, analysts say, connecting markets in Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific while diversifying Dhaka’s economic ties.

The plan was announced during Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s official visit to Japan this week. Rahman welcomed Tokyo’s pledge of US$6 billion in investment over the next five years, which could help revive an economy hit by energy shortages and reduce its heavy reliance on garment exports.

“Our ambition is clear: to turn this friendship between our two nations into a powerful engine of economic growth, opportunity and shared prosperity,” Rahman said on Tuesday at a joint press conference in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Rahman is on a four-day official visit to Japan from October 26 to 29.

Analysts noted that Dhaka’s push for Japanese investment aligned with the goals of its new government, elected earlier this year, to gain greater strategic autonomy by looking beyond its traditional reliance on China and India.

“More importantly, they want to diversify and seek investments,” said Sreeradha Datta, a professor of international affairs at O.P. Jindal Global University in India. “They have not been able to diversify from [reliance on] the ready-made garments sector.”“They are probably looking at Japan as a trustworthy investment partner,” she added.

Bangladesh is struggling to revive its pre-pandemic growth, as an energy crisis sparked by Middle East supply disruptions has exacerbated its industrial woes. The International Monetary Fund has projected the country’s gross domestic product growth at 3.2 per cent for the 2026-27 financial year, down from an earlier forecast of 4.3 per cent made in April.

A joint statement by Takaichi and Rahman said the two countries would upgrade their 2014 Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt Initiative, known as Big-B, into a broader “Big-B for Shared Prosperity” framework aimed at safeguarding their economic autonomy and addressing geopolitical risks.

The initiative centres on Bangladesh’s Matarbari deep-sea port. Developed with heavy investment from Japan, the port’s capacity to handle large commercial ships is expected to boost Dhaka’s export logistics while offering maritime access to neighbouring landlocked markets, including India’s northeastern states via Tripura.

“India is more than happy that Bangladesh expands its partnership with Japan. India believes Japan will not do anything in the region that is not in India’s interest,” Datta said, adding that New Delhi is unlikely to view Dhaka’s push for strategic autonomy as a threat.

“Rahman’s visit to Japan is probably a bigger message to China than India,” she added.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Delhi-based think tank the Global Trade Research Initiative, said the port expansion was unlikely to hurt China.

“Japan’s investment could reduce Bangladesh’s reliance on any single partner and strengthen its bargaining power. But China will remain an important supplier of machinery and goods, while India’s geography makes it central to regional trade and transportation,” Srivastava said.

While Delhi might welcome projects that improved access to its northeast, Beijing might take a more cautious view of Tokyo’s growing influence amid strained Sino-Japanese ties, he said.

India is a major supplier of essential commodities and raw materials to Bangladesh – including cotton yarn, petroleum products and engineering goods – while China has been a key financier and construction partner for infrastructure, from bridges and rail networks to power stations.

Ties between Tokyo and Dhaka have been advancing in recent years. In 2023, the two countries upgraded ties to a “strategic partnership”, followed by an economic partnership agreement in February that lowered tariff barriers.

Jamus Lim, an associate professor of economics at ESSEC Business School, said Bangladesh remained a credit-constrained developing country that would welcome foreign investment from Japan, particularly as it was likely to be viewed as “economically and politically neutral”.

He noted that Japan had a long history of extending financial support across Asia under what is known as the “flying geese model”, where a lead economy drives regional development that is sequentially followed by others.

Maritime security cooperation has expanded alongside trade. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Monday that notes were exchanged for a 2.12 billion yen (US$13.4 million) grant to supply the Bangladesh coastguard with patrol vessels for maritime surveillance and search-and-rescue operations in the Bay of Bengal.

“Dhaka’s best approach is to make the commercial case clearly: stronger ports, more factories and wider market access,” Srivastava said. “That would help it attract investment while preserving room to make its own strategic choices.”Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based geopolitical analyst, said that while Tokyo gained by developing a key trade corridor bridging South and Southeast Asia, Japanese cooperation could not replace regional dependencies, such as cross-border energy imports from India. “They will have to balance things carefully,” Debsarkar said.

Debsarkar noted that heated rhetoric over the past year regarding access to India’s northeastern states – connected to the Indian mainland via the narrow Siliguri Corridor, or “Chicken’s Neck” – sparked backlash and triggered security debates in Delhi. Tensions flared following the ousting of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India after being toppled in mass student protests over two years ago.

For Delhi, the silver lining of Rahman’s Japan visit was the prospect Tokyo could convince Dhaka to maintain close cross-border ties that benefit regional development, Debsarkar added.