
朱莉娅·弗兰克尔 耶路撒冷——以色列前军方首脑立场鹰派、性格内敛、不事雕琢,但他有可能击败总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。
JULIA FRANKEL JERUSALEM — Hawkish, reserved and unpolished, Israel’s former military chief has a viable chance of unseating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
他名叫加迪·艾森科特。尽管周二选举的选票仍在清点中,但他领导的中间派政党“亚沙尔”与其他反对派盟友如果能够与阿拉伯人领导的政党联手,他们通往执政的道路最为清晰,不过要实现这一点可能颇为困难。
His name is Gadi Eisenkot. And while the votes from Tuesday’s election are still being counted, his centrist party, Yashar, along with other opposition allies, have the clearest path to power if they can join forces with Arab-led parties, though pulling it off may prove difficult.
对于这位66岁的人来说,这是一段非凡的攀升历程。他由摩洛哥犹太移民抚养长大,他的儿子在最近的加沙战争中阵亡。但这对一个在以色列艰难复杂的组阁传统中相对缺乏历练的人来说,也是一项重大挑战。
It has been a remarkable climb for the 66-year-old, who was raised by Moroccan-Jewish immigrants, and whose son died fighting in the latest war in Gaza. But it’s also a major challenge for a man relatively untested in Israel’s hardscrabble tradition of coalition building.
他曾指挥以色列一些最艰难的战时战役,如今他要面对的是内塔尼亚胡,后者一次又一次地展现出在以色列残酷政治世界中近乎不可思议的生存能力。
The commander of some of Israel’s most difficult wartime battles, now he is up against Netanyahu, who has shown, time and time again, an almost uncanny ability to survive the cutthroat world of Israeli politics.
尽管如此,周二晚间初步出口民调显示内塔尼亚胡将遭遇重大失败时,艾森科特欣喜若狂且意志坚定。“我们创造了历史!”他在特拉维夫的讲台上高声喊道。
Nevertheless, Eisenkot was ecstatic and determined late Tuesday as initial exit polls suggested a big loss for Netanyahu. “We have made history!” he bellowed from a podium in Tel Aviv.
“数百万以色列人已经受够了谎言、失败、分裂和煽动的文化,”艾森科特说。“今晚标志着一个进程的开始,这个进程必须导向组建一个犹太复国主义政府。”以色列选举委员会周三公布的初步结果显示,总理所属政党随后领先,但未获得明显多数。艾森科特的联盟——由中右翼和更自由派人士混合组成——以微弱差距位居第二,但需要与阿拉伯人领导的政党合作才能获得绝对多数。
“Millions of Israelis have had enough of the culture of lies, of failure, of division and incitement,” Eisenkot said. “Tonight marks the beginning of a path that must lead to the formation of a Zionist government.”Preliminary results from Israel’s elections commission on Wednesday have since shown the prime minister’s party pulling ahead, but without a clear majority. Eisenkot’s coalition — a mix of center-right and more liberal figures — are a close second but would need to partner with Arab-led parties for an outright majority.
在以色列政治中,更高的得票数并不会自动转化为政治胜利,组建联盟的能力才是关键。
In Israeli politics, where higher vote counts don’t automatically translate into political victories, the ability to amass a coalition is key.
初步结果显示,内塔尼亚胡或艾森科特的联盟阵营均未达到组建多数政府所需的61个席位;当地媒体预测,利库德党及其盟友获得53个席位,亚沙尔党及其盟友获得48个席位,阿拉伯领导的政党获得19个席位。
Emerging results indicated that neither Netanyahu’s nor Eisenkot’s coalition blocs would reach the 61 seats needed for a majority; local media projected 53 seats for Likud and allied parties, 48 for Yashar and allied parties and 19 for Arab-led parties.
内塔尼亚胡及其利库德党的许多成员已排除与少数派阿拉伯政党合作,而艾森科特没有排除。
While Netanyahu and many members of his party, Likud, have ruled out working with minority Arab parties, Eisenkot has not.
这些政党主要由巴勒斯坦穆斯林和基督徒组成,在周二的选举中取得了历史性表现。如果艾森科特能说服他们加入他的联盟,他就能获得足够席位,在以色列议会(议会)中组建多数政府。
The parties, composed mainly of Palestinian Muslims and Christians, made a historic showing at the polls in Tuesday’s election. If Eisenkot can convince them to join his coalition, he could gain enough seats to form a majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
阿拉伯政党联合名单领导人尤瑟夫·贾巴林呼吁建立“真正平等”的犹太-阿拉伯伙伴关系,以帮助推翻内塔尼亚胡政府,此前阿拉伯领导的政党在选举中表现强劲。
Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List of Arab parties, is calling for a “true and equal” Jewish-Arab partnership to help oust Netanyahu’s government after a strong showing by Arab-led parties.
与阿拉伯政党结盟,艾森科特可能会失去联盟中更右翼成员的支持,使他的阵营从另一侧面临危险。
By partnering with Arab parties, Eisenkot could lose the support of more right-wing members of his coalition, endangering his bloc from the opposite flank.
为防止此类倒戈,他的党要求以色列的阿拉伯政党公开信奉某些原则:以色列是一个犹太和民主国家,以以色列独立宣言为指导;哈马斯是一个恐怖组织,应当被解除武装并被摧毁;以及,极端正统派犹太人和以色列巴勒斯坦公民不再应免除以色列的强制性兵役。
In a bid to prevent such defections, his party has asked Israel’s Arab parties to publicly profess certain principles: that Israel is a Jewish and democratic state, guided by the Israeli declaration of independence; that Hamas is a terrorist organization that should be disarmed and demolished; and that ultra-Orthodox Jews and Palestinian citizens of Israel must no longer be exempt from Israel’s mandatory military draft.
“目前没有一个极端正统派或阿拉伯政党支持这四项原则,”亚沙尔党候选人莉安·波拉克-大卫周二晚上对美联社说。
“There is currently no ultra-orthodox or Arab party that supports these four principles,” Yashar candidate Lian Polak-David said to Associated Press on Tuesday night.
他们必须尽快达成协议,否则将面临另一轮选举的风险。数千名飞往以色列参加第一轮投票的公民可能无法返回参加第二轮投票,阿拉伯政党也可能因投票率下降而受损。
They must reach an agreement soon or risk going to another round of elections. Thousands of citizens who flew into Israel to vote in the first round might be unable to return for a second, and Arab parties would likely suffer from lower turnout, too.
“我们必须迅速行动。这是当务之急,团结我们的人民至关重要,”艾森科特周二晚上在特拉维夫说。
“We must act swiftly. This is the imperative of the hour, and uniting our people is essential,” Eisenkot said Tuesday night in Tel Aviv.
艾森科特的英语磕磕绊绊,出身于工人阶级家庭。他在以色列军队中服役了四十年。他25岁的儿子加尔·梅尔·艾森科特在加沙的战斗中阵亡。
Eisenkot has halting English and comes from a working-class family. He spent four decades in Israel’s military. His 25-year-old son, Gal Meir Eisenkot, was killed in combat in Gaza.
内塔尼亚胡是受过美国教育的精英,因腐败丑闻而声名受损。国际刑事法院正寻求逮捕他。据《国土报》报道,内塔尼亚胡的儿子亚伊尔·内塔尼亚胡是一名播客主播,部分时间住在佛罗里达州,曾使用法定姓名“约纳坦·洪”。
Netanyahu is a U.S.-educated elite, marred by corruption scandals. His arrest is sought by the International Criminal Court. Netanyahu’s son, Yair Netanyahu, is a podcaster who lives part-time in Florida and has used the legal name “Yonatan Hun,” according to Haaretz.
2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列后,艾森科特在内塔尼亚胡的战时内阁中担任观察员。当天,武装分子杀害了1200人,并劫持了251名人质。据加沙卫生部门称,以色列随后在加沙发动战争,已造成超过7.4万名巴勒斯坦人死亡。
After the Hamas attacks on Israel Oct. 7, 2023, Eisenkot took on a role as an observer in Netanyahu’s war Cabinet. That day, the militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage. Israel then launched a war in Gaza that has killed over 74,000 Palestinians, according to the territory’s health ministry.
2024年6月,艾森科特跟随一位同事退出了内阁,他在辞职信中写道,内塔尼亚胡让政治影响决策,损害了以色列实现其战争目标的能力。艾森科特被派往作战的两名侄子也在加沙的战斗中阵亡。
In June 2024, Eisenkot followed a colleague out of the cabinet, writing in his resignation letter that Netanyahu was letting politics influence decision making, harming Israel’s ability to achieve its war goals. Eisenkot’s two nephews who were deployed to combat were also killed fighting in Gaza.
这些个人损失提升了艾森科特在以色列人中的声望,并赋予他公信力——作为一个付出了终极代价的人,他不会无谓地牺牲士兵。
The personal losses raised Eisenkot’s profile among Israelis and gave him credibility as someone who, having paid the ultimate price, wouldn’t needlessly sacrifice soldiers.
艾森科特与反对派中的其他人一样,认为内塔尼亚胡应为10月7日的事件以及未能将战场胜利转化为外交成果负责。他们支持对导致当天哈马斯袭击的失误展开国家调查——而内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直拒绝这一调查。
Eisenkot, like others in the opposition, say Netanyahu should be held accountable for Oct. 7 and the failure to turn battlefield victories into diplomatic achievements. They support launching a state inquiry into the failures that led to the Hamas attacks that day — a probe Netanyahu has long refused.
在以色列极端正统派群体的问题上,艾森科特曾表示,他不会在强制他们也服兵役的立法上妥协。
When it comes to the country’s ultra-Orthodox population, Eisenkot has said he will not compromise on legislation mandating they also serve in the military.
艾森科特并非鸽派。与几乎所有总理的竞争对手一样,艾森科特支持以色列在加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的军事行动。
Eisenkot is no dove. Like nearly all the prime minister’s rivals, Eisenkot has supported Israeli military operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
他表示希望缓和与以色列占领的约旦河西岸巴勒斯坦人的紧张局势,并遵循特朗普的加沙计划。
He says he wants to dial tensions down with the Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and follow Trump’s plan for Gaza.
他支持定居点,但表示会撤离未经授权的定居者前哨。人权组织称,这些前哨是导致针对巴勒斯坦人暴力的主要因素。
He supports settlements, but says he would evacuate unauthorized settler outposts, which rights groups say are the primary drivers of violence against Palestinians.
尽管他有时强调以外交手段应对以色列的安全挑战,但他也被认为是以色列所谓“达希耶主义”的制定者。该主义以贝鲁特南郊真主党武装组织据点所在的达希耶地区命名,是一种军事战略,主张对任何向以色列开火的实体——无论多么弱小或微不足道——使用不成比例的武力。
While at times he has emphasized diplomacy as a way to address Israel’s security challenges, he is also credited with formulating Israel’s so‑called “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” named after the area in Beirut’s southern suburbs where the Hezbollah militant group has a stronghold. It’s a military strategy advocating using disproportionate power against any entity that fires on Israel, no matter how small or insignificant.