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以色列阿拉伯人如今成为造王者,已准备好赶内塔尼亚胡下台Israel’s Arabs are now kingmakers and they’re ready to oust Netanyahu

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阿拉伯裔以色列政治活动家、莫萨瓦中心主任贾法尔·法拉赫 游说人士透露,以色列的阿拉伯政党将告知以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格,他们将支持以色列前参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派锡安主义阵营组建新政府。

Jafar Farah, an Arab-Israeli political activist and director of the Mossawa Center Credit Eyal Warshavsky for The Telegraph Paul Nuki in Haifa 7:09pm GMT Israel’s Arab parties will tell Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, that they will support the Zionist opposition bloc in forming a new Israeli government, according to a leading lobbyist.

莫萨瓦中心主任贾法尔·法拉赫向《每日电讯报》表示,他预计“联合名单”和“拉姆党”都将推荐前以色列国防军参谋长加迪·艾森科特担任总理,从而取代本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。法拉赫曾作为“联合名单”候选人参选,直到竞选期间退选。莫萨瓦中心是一个为以色列阿拉伯公民权益发声的倡导团体。

Jafar Farah told The Telegraph he expected both the Joint List and Ra’am to recommend that Gadi Eisenkot the former IDF chief of staff, become prime minister, ousting Benjamin Netanyahu Mr Farah is director of the Mossawa Centre, an advocacy group for Arab citizens of Israel. He stood as a Joint List candidate until he withdrew during the campaign.

周二的以色列大选陷入僵局,两大犹太裔阵营均无法单独组建政府。

The Israeli election produced a stalemate on Tuesday, with neither of the two main Jewish blocs large enough to form a government.

内塔尼亚胡阵营赢得53个席位。艾森科特领导的主要反对派阵营赢得48个席位。

Mr Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats. Mr Eisenkot’s main opposition bloc won 48.

相比之下,两个阿拉伯政党——“联合名单”和“拉姆党”支持率激增,根据周五的计票结果,在议会中共赢得19个席位,使他们成为亲内塔尼亚胡阵营和反内塔尼亚胡阵营之间潜在的“关键少数”。

In contrast, the two Arab parties – the Joint List and Ra’am – saw support surge and won 19 seats in the parliament, according to the count on Friday, making them potential kingmakers between the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs.

现在各党派必须会面、讨价还价,并寻求组队方式,在120席的以色列议会(克内塞特)中凑齐至少61个席位。

Now parties must meet, bargain and seek a way to team up for at least 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

“联合名单将推荐艾森科特成为总理候选人,”法拉赫告诉《每日电讯报》。“也许[阿拉伯民族主义政党]‘巴拉德党’的三个席位会拒绝,但其他人大概率会推荐。”他补充说,他认为“联合名单”还将“坐下来谈判”,就艾森科特为任何正式加入其政府的政党设定的四项原则与犹太裔反对派阵营进行磋商,这些原则包括承诺以色列作为犹太和民主国家的性质,以及承认哈马斯为恐怖组织。

“The Joint List will recommend Eisenkot to become the candidate for prime minister,” Mr Farah told The Telegraph. “Maybe the three seats of [the nationalist Arab party] Balad will refuse, but the others will probably recommend.”He added that he thought the Joint List would also “sit and negotiate” with the Jewish opposition bloc over the four principles Mr Eisenkot has set out for any party to formally join with it in government, which include commitment to Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organisation.

加迪·艾森科特在首批出口民调公布后,向支持者挥舞以色列国旗并发表讲话。 Noam Galai/Getty Images“将会有谈判……也许在不久的将来秘密进行,他将派代表坐下来谈判……公开场合,也许只有在(总理)推荐程序之后才会发生,”他说。

Gadi Eisenkot waves an Israeli flag as he addresses supporters after the first exit polls Noam Galai/Getty Images“There will be negotiation … secretly maybe in the near future, he will send his representatives to sit and talk … Publicly, maybe it will happen only after the recommendations,” he said.

法拉赫先生是莫萨瓦中心的主任,该中心是以色列阿拉伯公民的权益倡导枢纽,也是阿拉伯-以色列政治中的重要参与者。

Mr Farah is director of the Mossawa Center, the advocacy hub for Arab citizens of Israel and an important player in Arab-Israeli politics.

在竞选前夕,他是“联合名单”的高层候选人,该名单由其同事优素福·贾巴林领导,但他在15年前涉嫌对待女性不当的旧闻重提后退出了竞选。

In the run-up to the election, he was a senior candidate on the Joint List, led by his colleague Yousef Jabareen but withdrew after reheated allegations over his treatment of women dating back 15 years resurfaced.

周二投票结束后,贾巴林先生表示:“我们已准备好并愿意铺平道路,推动内塔尼亚胡政府下台。” 优素福·贾巴林,本周阿拉伯主导的“联合名单”政治联盟领袖 AFP /AHMAD GHARABLI拉阿姆党是两个阿拉伯-以色列政党中较为社会保守和宗教化的一个,已经表明将加入犹太反对派阵营。

In the wake of the vote on Tuesday, Mr Jabareen said: “We are ready and willing to pave the way for the Netanyahu government’s removal.”Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Arab-led Joint List political alliance this week AFP /AHMAD GHARABLI Ra’am, the more socially conservative and religious of the two Arab-Israeli parties, has already indicated it would join the Jewish opposition bloc.

然而,规模较大的“联合名单”立场较为模棱两可,其左翼领导人倾向于将原则置于务实之上。

However, the position of the larger Joint List has been more ambiguous, its leftist leaders prone to put principle ahead of pragmatism.

在最终结果公布前几小时,内塔尼亚胡及其利库德集团放大了未经证实的指控,声称阿拉伯主导政党可能在外国势力协助下“窃取”了选举。

In the hours before final results were announced, Mr Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties had“stolen” the election potentially with foreign assistance.

联合名单承受压力 如今,随着其选民基础面临来自该国强硬右翼的公开种族主义,“联合名单”正承受越来越大的压力,必须带来实质性变革。

Joint List under pressure Now, with its voter base facing open racism from the country’s hard right, the Joint List is under mounting pressure to deliver real change.

《每日电讯报》周五在以色列北部的混合城市海法和阿克尔,采访了十多位阿拉伯-以色列选民。

The Telegraph talked to more than a dozen Arab-Israeli voters in the mixed cities of Haifa and Acre towards the north of Israel on Friday.

所有受访者均表示,希望阿拉伯政党加入犹太反对派组建多数派政府。且所有人都表示,他们首先视自己为阿拉伯-以色列公民,而非巴勒斯坦人——“就像在英格兰的第二代或第三代印度裔一样”,一位受访者说道。

All said they wanted the Arab Parties to join the Jewish opposition to form a majority government. And all said they saw themselves as Arab-Israeli citizens first, rather than Palestinians – “just like a second or third generation Indian does in England”, said one.

40岁的哈利德是一家国际航运公司的经理,他说自己投票给拉姆党,因为对联合名单最著名的议员艾哈迈德·提比感到厌倦。

Khaled, 40, a manager for an international shipping company, said he had voted for Ra’am having grown tired of Ahmad Tibi, the Joint List’s most prominent parliamentarian.

“提比什么也没做。只会喊‘占领!占领!’”,他说。“占领不会照顾我们。那是一艘早已远航的船。”

“Tibi has done nothing. Just shouting, ‘occupation! occupation!’”, he said. “Occupation does not take care of us. It’s a ship that sailed a long time ago”.

联合名单党的艾哈迈德·提比与家人一起在大选中投票 REUTERS/Ammar Awad 《每日电讯报》采访的大多数人表示,他们面临“日常歧视”,但认为政治合作是改善生活的最佳途径。

Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List party with his family votes during the national election REUTERS/Ammar Awad Most of those The Telegraph talked to said they faced “daily discrimination” but thought political cooperation was the best way to improve their lives.

阿拉伯裔以色列社区的暴力犯罪问题、阿拉伯城镇民用基础设施的改善,以及阿拉伯裔以色列公民获得建设权的能力,是他们的优先关注事项。

The issues of violent crime in Arab-Israeli communities, improved civil infrastructure in Arab towns and the ability for Arab-Israeli citizens to get building rights were their priorities.

并非所有人都投票给阿拉伯政党。38岁的拉米是来自海法的基督教阿拉伯裔以色列医疗工程师,他说自己投票给了前以色列总理纳夫塔利·贝内特,后者属于反对派变革阵营。

Not all voted for Arab parties. Rami, 38, a Christian Arab-Israeli medical engineer from Haifa, said he had voted for Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli prime minister who is part of the opposition change bloc.

“我投了贝内特,我朋友投了艾森科特。我们在这里是阿拉伯人的少数派,但这里的大多数阿拉伯人希望阿拉伯政党与犹太复国主义者坐在一起”,他说。

“I voted for Bennett and my friend voted for Eisenkot. We are a minority of the Arabs here, but most of the Arabs here want the Arab parties to sit with the Zionists”, he said.

和其他人一样,他补充道:“前进的最佳方式是大家共同努力。正如我批评阿拉伯政党中的一些人不支持以色列左翼一样,我指责以色列右翼不与阿拉伯政党打交道。如果你不想让阿拉伯人进入政府,你以为事情会怎么改变?”

Like others, he added: “The best way forward is for everyone to work together. Just as I criticise some in the Arab parties for not giving support to the Israeli left, I blame the Israeli right for not dealing with the Arab parties. If you don’t want the Arabs in government, how do you think things will change?”Ibrahim, 71, a former professional football player who was sitting with friends in a shisha bar in the historic old town of Acre, said the scale of the Arab turnout at the election had made “the whole Arab-Israeli population feel good” and predicted “even more will come to vote” if there was another election.

71岁的易卜拉欣是一名前职业足球运动员,当时正和朋友们在阿克古城历史老城区的一家水烟吧里坐着。他说,阿拉伯选民在大选中的投票规模让“整个阿拉伯裔以色列人口感到振奋”,并预测“如果再有一次选举,会有更多人出来投票”。

He, too, urged cooperation. “We hope they will join together. The Jews are good people. The problem is the current government and the religious extremists”.

他也敦促合作。“我们希望他们能联合起来。犹太人是好人。问题在于现任政府和宗教极端分子。”

Only one Arab-Israeli The Telegraph talked to said he had not voted.

《每日电讯报》采访的阿拉伯裔以色列人中,只有一人表示自己没有投票。

“We are a minority under discrimination; elections can change nothing”, said Mohammed, 42, a boat skipper from Acre.

“我们是受歧视的少数群体;选举什么也改变不了”,来自阿克的42岁船长穆罕默德说。

“What do Arabs here want? We want to live like humans. In the last weeks Channel 14 made voting for us feel like a crime. If you vote you are a terrorist”.

“这里的阿拉伯人想要什么?我们想像人一样生活。在过去几周里,第14频道让我们投票感觉像犯了罪。你要是投票,你就是恐怖分子。”

His friend Khaled agreed that if an Israeli-Arab voiced their opinion “too loudly”, they could “go to jail”, but believed it was safe to vote.

他的朋友哈立德同意这种看法,认为如果以色列阿拉伯人“过于大声地”表达意见,可能会“进监狱”,但他相信投票是安全的。“我认为投票是正确的事,也是带来改变的最好办法,”他说。

“I think to vote is the right thing and the best thing to make change,” he said.

艾森科特的四项合作条件 艾森科特先生表示,如果他能组建政府,打算“代表所有以色列人”。

Eisenkot’s four conditions for cooperation Mr Eisenkot has said he intends to “represent all Israelis” if he is able to form a government.

虽然他反对派阵营中的几位成员已表示不会与阿拉伯政党同台共事,但艾森科特已提出一套可能达成协议的方案。

And while several of the members of his opposition bloc have said they will not sit with the Arab parties, Mr Eisenkot has laid out a formula for a possible deal.

他说,他将与任何承诺支持四项关键原则的政党合作:“承认以色列为一个致力于平等的犹太、民主和自由国家;承诺遵守以色列《独立宣言》的价值观;所有以色列公民强制服役——军事、国民或民事服役;以及承认哈马斯为恐怖组织,并承认有义务摧毁其在加沙地带的军事能力和统治权力。”

He says he will sit with any party that commits itself to supporting four key principles: “recognition of Israel as a Jewish, democratic and liberal state committed to equality; commitment to the values of Israel’s Declaration of Independence; mandatory service for all Israeli citizens – military, national or civilian; and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organisation and of the obligation to destroy its military capabilities and governing power in the Gaza Strip”.

莫萨瓦中心的法拉先生,与联合名单相关的其他人一样,本能地对这些“非常聪明的前提条件”感到反感。

Mr Farah of the Mossawa Center, like others associated with the Joint List, instinctively prickles at these “very smart preconditions”.

他说,这并非因为这些条件本身一定难以接受,而是因为它们被设定为旨在“让阿拉伯政党难堪”的前提条件。

This is not because they are necessarily hard to agree with but because they are framed as a precondition intended to “embarrass” the Arab parties, he said.

他指出,所有议会成员已经被要求承认以色列为犹太国家并支持《独立宣言》,以任何形式支持哈马斯也是非法的。

All members of the Knesset are already required to recognise Israel as a Jewish state and support the Declaration of Independence, and support for Hamas in any form is illegal, he noted.

他补充说,这些要求还掩盖了许多对阿拉伯裔以色列选民至关重要的细节,最显著的是在“法律面前人人平等”以及让阿拉伯裔以色列人普遍服役的“实际操作”方面。

He added that the requirements also masked a lot of detail that was important to Arab-Israeli voters, most notably in the areas of “equality in law” and the “practicalities” of enabling universal service for Arab-Israelis.

他说:“在基布兹,他们有自己的机构来开展公民服务。极端正统派犹太人也是……我们希望我们的孩子去服务,在社区里、在医院里,但我们没有机构……只有2%的补贴给了阿拉伯民间社会组织。”

“In the kibbutzim they have their institutions to do civil service. Also the Ultra Orthodox… We want our children to go to service, in the communities, in hospitals but we don’t have the institutions… only 2 per cent of the subsidies is given to Arab civil society organisations,” he said.

周五,阿拉伯裔以色列人在阿克老城。尽管如此,法拉补充说,如果艾森科特和反对派阵营邀请,阿拉伯政党将会“谈判”。

Israeli Arabs at the old city of Acer on Friday Nevertheless, the Arab parties would “negotiate” if invited to do so by Mr Eisenkot and the opposition bloc, Mr Farah added.

“我们当然会参与。谈判的前提条件就是谈判的前提条件。[但]会有谈判的。”

“We will be engaged, of course. Preconditions for negotiations are preconditions for negotiation. [But] there will be negotiation”.

法拉最终表示,他对组建阿拉伯-以色列联合政府并不乐观,并指出来自右翼的抵制极其强烈。

Ultimately, Mr Farah said he was not optimistic a joint Arab-Israeli government could be formed, noting resistance from the right was extreme.

“我不确定艾森科特会有勇气……我认为他会知道自己可能会被杀害……以拉宾在1992年[原文如此]被杀害的那种方式被杀害。”

“I am not sure that Eisenkot will be brave … I think he will know he could be killed … killed in the way that Rabin was killed in ’92 [sic]”.

预计将举行示威活动 预计周六晚上将在全国各地举行多场示威活动,支持组建犹太-阿拉伯政府。

Demonstrations expected Several demonstrations were expected across the country on Saturday night in support of the formation of a Jewish-Arab government.

“团结一致”组织的领导人——一个犹太-阿拉伯草根运动——表示,集会将在特拉维夫、耶路撒冷,以及贝尔谢巴、海法和泰伊贝举行。

Leaders from the Standing Together group, a Jewish-Arab grassroots movement, said rallies would be held in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, as well as in Beersheba, Haifa and Tayibe.

组织者说:“抗议者要求阵营领导人承认他们的胜利,并基于犹太-阿拉伯伙伴关系组建政府。”

“Protesters are demanding that the bloc’s leaders recognise their victory and form a government based on Jewish-Arab partnership,” the organisers said.

他们补充道:“投票支持变革的犹太-阿拉伯多数也必须体现在下一届政府中。”

“The Jewish-Arab majority that voted for change must also be reflected in the next government,” they added.

“阿拉伯人的选票与犹太人的选票价值完全相同,阿拉伯公民必须成为塑造国家未来的全权合作伙伴。”

“Arab votes are worth exactly as much as Jewish votes, and Arab citizens must be full partners in shaping the country’s future”.

阿拉伯-以色列联盟并非组建新一届以色列政府的唯一可能。如果中右翼政党同意合作,一个“民族团结”的犹太复国主义政府也是一种可能。

An Arab-Israeli coalition is not the only possibility for forming a new Israel government. A Zionist government of “national unity” is also a possibility should the centre-right parties agree to cooperate.

最大的障碍是内塔尼亚胡本人,因为犹太反对派阵营的四个政党将其整个竞选活动都建立在将他赶下台的基础上。现在与他达成协议极其困难。

The biggest obstacle here is Mr Netanyahu himself, as the four parties of the Jewish opposition bloc constructed their entire campaign around removing him from power. To agree a deal with him now would be difficult in the extreme.

内塔尼亚胡也有自己的选择。他将试图说服反对派阵营的右翼加入他,或者——更有可能的是——试图阻挠新政府的组建,迫使再次举行选举。

Mr Netanyahu also has options. He will try to convince the right wing of the opposition bloc to join him or - more likely – attempt to block the formation of a new government and force another election.

他和他的利库德集团继续开展运动,通过将阿拉伯政党描绘成反以色列激进分子,甚至是“恐怖分子”,来使其失去合法性。

He and his Likud party have continued its campaign to delegitimise the Arab parties by portraying them as anti-Israeli radicals, even “terrorists”.

他们还指控阿拉伯政党存在大规模选民舞弊——中央选举委员会迄今已驳回了这一指控。

They have also alleged widespread voter fraud by the Arab parties – something the Central Elections Committee has so far rejected.

法拉被问及最可能的结果时表示,在内塔尼亚胡正在进行的贪腐审判结束之前——可能在明年春天——少数派反对派阵营有可能在阿拉伯政党的非正式支持下组建政府。

Asked for his best bet, Mr Farah said it was possible that a minority opposition bloc would be formed with informal support from the Arab parties until Mr Netanyahu’s ongoing trial for corruption ended, perhaps in the spring.

“如果‘比比’在2027年被定罪,那么他们将组建一个民族[犹太]政府,”他说。

“If there will be conviction of Bibi in ’27, then they will create a national [Jewish] government,” he said.

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