特拉维夫 —— 以色列周二晚间大选的早期计票结果显示，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的阵营与由丧子退役将军、中右翼“雅夏尔党”领袖加迪·艾森科特领导的“变革”联盟势均力敌。艾森科特的阵营略微领先内塔尼亚胡的阵营。但以色列复杂的联合组阁谈判 —— 以及内塔尼亚胡老练的政治手腕 —— 使他重新掌权的可能性依然存在。
TEL AVIV — Early returns in Israel’s election Tuesday evening showed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc neck and neck with the “Change” coalition headed by the bereaved retired general and leader of the center-right Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot’s grouping is slightly edging out Netanyahu’s bloc. But Israel’s complicated coalition negotiations — and Netanyahu’s sharp politicking — leave open the possibility he could return to power.
一个重大进展是阿拉伯政党的预计席位，早期民调指向共计18个席位。如果它们达成联合协议，可能成为让艾森科特阵营获得执政多数的关键。这场选举被广泛视为对内塔尼亚胡的公投，是哈马斯2023年10月7日发动毁灭性恐怖袭击、引发加沙、黎巴嫩、伊朗及其他战线长达三年战争以来的首次投票。周二的投票率为1999年以来最高，截至当地时间晚间8点，以色列730万合格选民中有74.3%参与投票 —— 远超2022年的70%参与率。
A major development was projected seats for Israel’s Arab parties, with early polls pointing to 18 combined seats. They could prove decisive in giving Eisenkot’s bloc a ruling majority, if they come to a coalition agreement. The election is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, as the first vote since Hamas’s devastating terrorist attack on Oct. 7, 2023, that set up three years of war in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and other fronts. Voter turnout Tuesday was the highest since 1999, with 74.3 percent of Israel’s 7.3 million eligible voters participating as of 8 p.m. local time — blowing past the participation rate of 2022 at 70 percent.
以色列没有缺席投票制度，估计有7万名以色列人返回国内投票。分析人士称，完整结果可能要到周三才会完全明朗。以色列议会“克内塞特”要求在总共120个席位中获得61席多数。以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格将授权他认为最有机会组建政府的政党主导联合谈判；该党不一定非要是克内塞特席位最多的政党。获授权的党魁将有28天时间组建联合政府，可申请14天延期。
Israel does not have absentee voting and an estimated 70,000 Israelis returned to the country to cast their ballots. The full results will likely come into complete focus Wednesday, analysts said. Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, requires a 61-seat majority out of the total 120 seats. Israeli President Isaac Herzog will tap the party he views as having the best chance to form a government to lead coalition talks; it doesn’t necessarily need to be the party with the largest number of Knesset seats. The party leader tapped will have 28 days to form a coalition with a possible 14-day extension.
若努力失败，赫尔佐格可给另一位党魁组建联合政府的机会，期限同样为28天。若各党陷入僵局，还有其他应变机制。以色列新政府的最终组建可能需要数周时间。
If those efforts fail, Herzog can give another party leader a chance to form a coalition, with a 28-day timeline. There are other contingencies if the parties remain deadlocked. The final formation of Israel’s new government could take weeks.
尽管面临国际社会对加沙死亡人数的批评，以色列人普遍认为对哈马斯的战争是必要且正义的，但该国在国内问题上却面临深刻分歧。艾森科特的儿子和侄子在10月7日后于加沙与哈马斯作战时阵亡，他与在恐怖袭击后经历挣扎和巨大损失的选民产生了共鸣。无论内塔尼亚胡还是艾森科特获胜，以色列的外交政策都可能保持相对稳定，双方都反对建立巴勒斯坦国，并支持以色列在与伊朗支持的真主党战斗中继续占领黎巴嫩南部。
While Israelis largely view the war against Hamas as necessary and justified in the face of international criticism over the death toll in Gaza, the country is grappling with deep divisions on domestic issues. Eisenkot, whose son and nephew died fighting against Hamas in Gaza after Oct. 7, connected with voters who struggled and experienced immense loss following the terrorist attack. Whether Netanyahu or Eisenkot prevail, Israel’s foreign policy is likely to remain relatively stable, with both parties opposed to a Palestinian state and supportive of the continued Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon amid the fight against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
两人都对伊朗采取强硬立场。美国正在准备打击方案，以在下周本国中期选举后恢复对伊朗的军事打击。以色列退役上校、与艾森科特关系密切的科比·马罗姆表示，他的目标将继续是推翻伊朗政权。“如果特朗普和以色列计划再次升级对伊朗的行动，必须规划得好得多，”他告诉《国会山报》。在向《国会山报》描述他们对下届政府的期望时，“变革”是选民的共同呼声。
Both take a hawkish stance against Iran. The U.S. is preparing strike options to renew military attacks against Iran after its own midterm elections next week. Kobi Marom, a retired colonel in the Israeli military who is close to Eisenkot, said his goal will remain regime change in Iran. “If Trump and Israel are planning another escalation of Iran, it must be planned much better,” he told The Hill. “Change” was a common refrain among voters who spoke to The Hill, when describing what they were looking for in their next government.
“10月7日后，这个国家极其需要变革，”73岁的以色列裔美国人亚伦·阿德勒周二在耶路撒冷卡塔蒙社区投票时说。阿德勒列举了选民去投票时考虑的首要问题：最引人注目的是艾森科特的竞选承诺，即启动对10月7日的官方调查，并解决极端正统派免除兵役和国民服役的问题——这被批评为对在加沙、黎巴嫩和约旦河西岸战役中服役的公民及其家庭造成了极端负担。
“The country needed a change after Oct. 7, badly,” said Aaron Adler, 73, an Israeli American voting Tuesday in Jerusalem’s Katamon neighborhood. Adler recited a list of the top issues voters considered going to the polls: most notably Eisenkot’s campaign promises to launch an official investigative inquiry into Oct. 7 and address the ultra-Orthodox’s exclusion from the military and national service — criticized as an extreme burden on the citizens who are serving in Israel’s campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank, and their families.
阿德勒表示，如果内塔尼亚胡最终胜出，他将接受再过几年内塔尼亚胡的统治。“我们会继续生活，这是我们的国家，我们热爱它，”他说。
Adler said he’ll deal with another few years with Netanyahu, if he emerges on top at the end of the day. “We’ll keep living, this is our country, we love it,” he said.
“我们还得和比比再过几年，反正没人能活到永远，”他补充道，用的是内塔尼亚胡的昵称。卡塔蒙的其他选民表达了类似情绪，投票给承诺加入艾森科特执政联盟的政党。43岁的托梅尔·拉姆同样在卡塔蒙投票，他把票投给了中左翼政党民主党。该党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰表示，他将与艾森科特组建联盟以增强席位，阻止内塔尼亚胡重掌大权。
“We’ll live for another few years with Bibi, nobody lives forever,” he added, using Netanyahu’s nickname. Other voters in Katamon expressed similar sentiments, voting for parties that promised to join Eisenkot in a governing coalition. Tomer Ram, 43, also voting in Katamon, cast his ballot for the center-left party The Democrats. Yair Golan, the party’s head, has said he’d join a coalition with Eisenkot to strengthen the numbers and block Netanyahu from coming back to power.
“现任政府是有史以来最差的，不仅在以色列，也许在全世界都是，他们必须被取代，”拉姆说，并补充道，他对可能与艾森科特联合的中右翼保守派团体没有任何意见。这包括由阿维格多·利伯曼领导的以色列我们党，利伯曼曾是内塔尼亚胡的联盟伙伴，2018年因批评政府未果断处理加沙的哈马斯而辞职。纳夫塔利·贝内特领导的团结党也很可能加入艾森科特的联盟，贝内特曾在2021年至2022年短暂担任总理，此前曾为组建反内塔尼亚胡联盟而奔走。
“The current administration is the worst ever, not only in Israel, maybe in the whole world, and they need to be replaced,” Ram said, adding he doesn’t have a problem with any of the center-right conservative groups likely to join with Eisenkot. This includes the Yisrael Beyteinu party headed by Avigdor Lieberman, a one-time Netanyahu coalition partner who resigned in 2018 because he was critical that the government wasn’t dealing decisively with Hamas in Gaza. Also likely to join Eisenkot’s coalition is the Beyachad party headed by Naftali Bennett, who briefly served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, after a previous scramble to form an anti-Netanyahu coalition.
同样在卡塔蒙的42岁选民阿亚·拉埃尔把票投给了贝内特，她说主要考量是贝内特身边围绕着一支她支持的团队。“他们每一个都是真正、真正优秀的人，是杰出的政治家，为我们做了好事。即使我不认同他们的一切观点，他们也是会进入克内塞特、能干实事的严肃人物，”她说。不过，如果艾森科特寻求合作，阿拉伯政党最终可能成为关键少数。
Aya Lael, 42, also in Katamon, cast her ballot for Bennett, saying her main consideration was that Bennett surrounded himself with a team she supports. “Each of them are really, really good people who are great politicians and making good things for us. Even if I don’t agree with everything, they are serious people who will be in the Knesset can do the work,” she said. However, Arab parties could ultimately become kingmakers if Eisenkot pursues their cooperation.
在阿拉伯人占多数的阿布·戈什村，22岁的萨纳德·阿卜杜勒·拉赫曼正鼓励朋友们首次去投票。他形容年轻一代——18岁的首投族——对政治局势更加清醒，投票意愿更强。
In the Arab majority village of Abu Ghosh, 22-year-old Sanad Abed Rahman is encouraging his friends to vote for the first time. He described the younger generation — 18-year-old first-time voters — as more aware of the political situation and motivated to vote.
“人们想要更换这个政府，他们厌倦了它，”他说，并形容针对以色列阿拉伯人和巴勒斯坦人的种族主义与仇恨是他有生以来经历过最严重的。今年22岁的拉赫曼经历了与哈马斯和真主党日益频繁的战争，以及约旦河西岸暴力事件的不断升级。“这种种族主义现在，我以前从未见过，”他说，并特别指名道姓地指出了以色列国家安全部部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔，后者领导着极端民族主义、极右翼宗教政党“犹太力量党”。
“People want to change this government, they’re tired of it,” he said, describing the racism and hatred against Israeli Arabs and Palestinians as the worst he’s ever experienced. At 22, Rahman has lived through increasingly frequent war with Hamas and Hezbollah, and increasing violence in the West Bank. “This racism now, I never saw it before,” he said, pointing specifically at Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s minister of national security who heads the ultra-nationalist, far-right religious party Otzma Yehudit, or “Jewish Power.”
本-格维尔在翻领上佩戴着一个绞索形状的徽章，预计将在以色列议会赢得6至7个席位。他对《时代》杂志表示，希望利用这些席位作为筹码施压内塔尼亚胡，争取一个高级部长职位——极有可能是国防部长。这很可能会进一步使以色列在国际舞台上孤立。因侵犯人权，特别是在约旦河西岸对巴勒斯坦人实施侵略和暴力行为，本-格维尔正受到欧洲制裁。更新于美国东部时间下午6:42
Ben-Gvir, who wears a noose-shaped pin on his lapel, is projected to win 6-7 seats in Israel’s Knesset. And he told Time Magazine he’s hoping to wield his seats as leverage on Netanyahu, calling for a senior portfolio — likely defense minister. That would likely further isolate Israel on the international stage. Ben-Gvir is under European sanctions for human rights abuses, in particular acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Updated 6:42 p.m. EDT