10:23pm GMT There is still no outright winner in Israel’s critical general election.

With more than 85 per cent of ballots counted after Tuesday’s vote, initial results suggest that neither the bloc led by the Likud Party of incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, is likely to win enough seats to form the next government.

Next week, Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, will invite the candidate he believes has the greatest chance of forming a governing coalition to do so.

If they fail, the most probable solution may be another election, a process that could drag on for months. Until then, Mr Netanyahu’s government will cling to power in a caretaking role. So what needs to happen to break the impasse?

Opposition bloc governs with Arab party support Mr Eisenkot, a former military chief whose son was killed in the Gaza war, technically has the clearest path, but it’s unstable.

If the numbers hold, his anti-Netanyahu opposition bloc may attempt to form a coalition and agree to govern with the Arab parties.

The two Arab parties gained a record 19 seats on election night – spurred on by an unprecedented turnout from Israel’s Arab communities, who make up roughly one-fifth of the country and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

The most likely outcome in this scenario is that one Arab party sits in the coalition and the other supports from outside.

Ra’am, a conservative Islamist faction led by Mansour Abbas, with around seven seats, has said it would join a coalition, but the larger Arab bloc has said it would only give “safety net” support from outside, effectively creating a minority government.

The main Jewish parties will be reluctant to form a government that relies on a partnership with predominantly Arab parties. Yair Golan, head of the centre-Left Democrats, is the only Jewish leader advocating this outcome. Such a coalition would be extremely fragile, particularly on issues surrounding Gaza and the West Bank.

National unity government led by Netanyahu Many see a unity government as the most realistic option. It would mean that some of the parties, though sworn enemies, could be persuaded to join forces.

“That’s what everybody’s watching for, and where the horse trading is now beginning,” said Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute.

Yousef Jabareen, a Palestinian candidate for the Joint List party, reacts to exit polls. Arab parties appear to have secured 19 seats in the election However, this would require parties to break election promises.

This will become more likely if Donald Trump pressures Mr Netanyahu to bring rivals into government and push out his far-Right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. If Mr Eisenkot agrees, he would be breaking his pledge to push Mr Netanyahu out of government.

On Tuesday, Mr Eisenkot said he would do “everything possible to form a Zionist government” that represents “all Israeli citizens equally” after an election in which Israelis voted “against Benjamin Netanyahu remaining as prime minister”. The incumbent prime minister would also probably claim the first turn in a rotation, as leader of the largest party.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, casts his vote with his wife Ayala on Tuesday Mr Eisenkot could sell it as a security-driven moment of national healing, Ms Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said.

Even if Mr Eisenkot pursued a coalition of parties that voted for an alternative to Mr Netanyahu, he would be breaking another of his pledges, which was not to rely on Arab parties.

What wins out will depend on how he thinks it will land with the Israeli public, Ms Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said.

Netanyahu-led majority with Right-wing opposition parties Mr Netanyahu may attempt to persuade the Right-wing parties in Mr Eisenkot’s bloc to peel off and join his coalition.

But as the opposition bloc was united by their shared refusal to sit in government with Mr Netanyahu, the political manoeuvring will focus on the personal, rather than traditional Left vs Right debates, Ms Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said.

The two leaders most likely to defect are Naftali Bennett, former prime minister and joint head of the Beyachad party, who has fiercely argued in favour of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the Right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party.

Both share many of Mr Netanyahu’s hawkish views and have worked as his advisers in the past.

Mr Eisenkot is a former military chief whose son was killed in the Gaza war However, both Mr Bennett and Mr Lieberman have campaigned for Netanyahu to be ousted, accusing him of corruption, abuses of power and a willingness to cut deals with extremists to remain as prime minister.

Mr Netanyahu’s last government relied on the Orthodox Haredi parties, so any defection from other opposition-bloc parties would require the prime minister to make trade-offs and break promises. As a last resort, it could come down to a new election.

“[It’s] not an impossible scenario,” said Ms Kurtzer-Ellenbogen. “It’s a long route ahead.”Many would see this as a win for Mr Netanyahu, as it would allow him to remain as prime minister until the new elections take place – which could drag on for months.

People spray sparkling wine as they celebrate early exit poll results in Tel Aviv Analysts have warned it could also lead to voter fatigue, lower Arab turnout and fewer Israelis returning from overseas to vote. Some 70,000 people flew home this time.

In his election night speech, Mr Eisenkot warned it “would be a mistake to hold another election” after such a high voter turnout. Some 78 per cent of voters cast ballots, the highest since 1999, according to election authorities.

Several Right-wing parties that missed the 3.25 per cent threshold may also drop out, therefore further shifting votes towards the Likud bloc.

This would not be the first time either. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 because of repeated deadlocks between Mr Netanyahu and his rivals.