
以色列大选无明显赢家:出口民调预测内塔尼亚胡所在政党将赢得最多席位,但对手阵营“将更大且仍可能将其赶下台” 随着今晚以色列大选投票结束,本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的政治前途悬而未决。
No clear winner in Israeli general election: Exit polls predict Netanyahu's party to win most seats but rival bloc 'will be bigger and could still oust him' Benjamin Netanyahu's political future hangs in the balance as polls closed tonight in the Israeli election.
早期出口民调显示,这位77岁领导人的利库德集团将继续成为该国议会中最大政党。
Early exit polls suggest the 77-year-old's Likud party will remain the largest in the country's parliament.
然而,出口民调显示两大对手阵营均未获得足以组建政府的席位,以色列面临新的不确定性。
However, Israel faces fresh uncertainty after exit polls suggested neither of the two main rival blocs had secured enough seats to form a government.
根据第12频道的出口民调,反对内塔尼亚胡的犹太主导政党预计将在120席的克内塞特(议会)中赢得52席,略微领先于支持总理的政党预计获得的50席。
According to Channel 12’s exit poll, Jewish-led parties opposed to Netanyahu are projected to win 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, narrowly ahead of the 50 seats expected to go to parties backing the Prime Minister.
两大阵营均远低于组建多数政府所需的61席,这引发了艰难的联合政府谈判和长期政治僵局的前景。2019年至2022年间,以色列举行了五次大选,外界担心这一局面重演。
Both camps remain well short of the 61 seats required for a majority, raising the prospect of difficult coalition negotiations and a prolonged political stalemate. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five elections and there are fears of a repeat.
同样反对内塔尼亚胡的阿拉伯主导政党——拉阿姆党和联合名单——预计将获得创纪录的18席,可能在以色列的政治未来中发挥关键作用。最终结果取决于官方计票结果,预计将在未来几天揭晓。
Arab-led parties, Ra'am and Joint list which also oppose Netanyahu, are projected to secure a record 18 seats, potentially giving them a key role in Israel’s political future. A final outcome dependent on the official results is expected in the coming days.
此次大选被广泛视为对内塔尼亚胡自2023年哈马斯领导的10月7日袭击以来的领导力,以及此后动摇中东的战争的一次公投。
The election is widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership since the Hamas-led October 7 attacks of 2023, as well as the wars which have since shaken the Middle East.
周二,创纪录的74%以色列人出来投票,投票率创下1974年有记录以来的新高,当时公民在赎罪日战争(对埃及和叙利亚)后进行投票。
A record 74 per cent of Israelis turned out to vote on Tuesday, marking a high since records began in 1974 when citizens voted following the Yom Kippur war against Egypt and Syria.
投票日当天,内塔尼亚胡敦促支持者投出神圣一票,称这是“紧急情况”,关乎“生死存亡”。
Throughout the day, Netanyahu urged his supporters to cast their votes, calling it an 'emergency' and a 'matter of life and death'.
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡今日在耶路撒冷接受拍摄 内塔尼亚胡的主要对手、前军方首长加迪·艾森科特在特拉维夫接受拍摄 选民在特拉维夫庆祝早期出口民调结果 有妇女开香槟庆祝,其他人则跳舞欢呼 他的利库德集团请求将投票时间延长至该国截止时间晚上10点(格林威治标准时间晚上8点)之后,但一个委员会最终拒绝了这一请求,称“目前的情况不足以证明延长投票时间的合理性”。
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pictured in Jerusalem today Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, is pictured in Tel Aviv Voters are pictured celebrating the results of early exit polls in Tel Aviv Women were seen popping bottles of champagne while others danced and shouted His Likud party requested that voting be extended beyond the country's 10pm [8pm GMT] deadline, but a committee ultimately refused this, saying 'the current circumstances do not justify an extension'.
以色列人投票给政党,随后各政党结成联盟以组建多数派联合政府。在120席的议会(即克内塞特)中,从未有单一政党赢得61席的绝对多数。
Israelis vote for parties, which then form alliances to create a majority coalition. No single party has ever won a 61-seat majority in the 120-member parliament, or Knesset.
全天全国情绪高涨,一名耶路撒冷选民对《每日邮报》表示:“这至关重要,从未像现在这样关键。”她说自己来自尼里姆基布兹,该基布兹在10月7日遭到袭击。
Emotions were running high throughout the country today with one voter in Jerusalem telling the Daily Mail: 'This is critical, and it's never been as critical.' She said she had come from kibbutz Nirim, which was attacked on October 7.
在内塔尼亚胡的票仓、靠近黎巴嫩边境的基里亚特-什莫纳,一名男子踢倒并撕毁了总理主要对手、前军方首长加迪·艾森科特的海报。
In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the border with Lebanon, a man kicked and tore down a poster of the prime minister's leading rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
在特拉维夫,一些2023年哈马斯领导的袭击中遇难者的家属和前人质的家属举行了默哀仪式。
In Tel Aviv, some families of those killed in the Hamas-led 2023 attack and families of former hostages held a moment of silence.
“记住所有声音已消逝的人,”马帕尔·亚当的母亲约娜·亚当说,马帕尔·亚当在袭击中遇难。
'Remember all those whose voices are no more,' said Yona Adam, the mother of Mapal Adam, who was killed.
在耶路撒冷一所学校设立的投票站,一些人表示他们投票是为了改变,另一些人则表示只信任内塔尼亚胡能保障他们的安全。“10月7日的事不怪他,”预备役军人尼西姆·科恩说。
At a polling station set up in a Jerusalem school, some said they were voting for change while others said they only trusted Netanyahu to keep them secure. 'He's not responsible for October 7,' said Nisim Cohen, a reservist.
他补充说,他希望内塔尼亚胡赢得大选,并继续在加沙、黎巴嫩以及与伊朗的战争,直到以色列人能安然入睡。
He added that he wants Netanyahu to win the election and continue the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and with Iran until Israelis can sleep peacefully.
85岁的退休人员齐波拉·贝内特也表示,她将投票给内塔尼亚胡,“因为他有经验带领国家度过许多艰难时期”,并称赞他获得美国支持,补充道:“他是一个不怕采取行动的人。”
Zipporah Bennett, an 85-year-old retiree, also said she was voting for Netanyahu 'because he has had the experience of navigating the country through a lot of difficult seasons', praising his support from the US and adding: 'He's a man who's not afraid to take action.'
65岁的耶路撒冷选民亚历山德拉说:“我想要我们国家的变革。我想要一个良好的民主中间派政府。”约有730万人有资格投票,数十万年轻人首次投下选票。调查显示,他们绝大多数认同自己为中间偏右或右翼。
Alexandra, a 65-year-old voter in Jerusalem, said: 'I want change in our country. I want a good democratic centrist government.' Some 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, with hundreds of thousands of young people casting their ballot for the first time. Surveys show they overwhelmingly identify as centre-Right or Right-wing.
据估计,数万名以色列人从国外飞回国内投票,这场选举被视为决定其国家未来性质的关键时刻。
Tens of thousands of Israelis are estimated to have flown in from abroad to vote in an election seen as crucial to deciding the future character of their country.
58岁的房地产经纪人乌里尔·布兰德勒在投票前一天于耶路撒冷表示:“我认为这是以色列国历史上最重要的选举日之一。”他表达了对变革的期盼。
'I think this is one of the most important election days in the history of the state of Israel,' Uriel Brandler, a 58-year-old real estate agent, said from Jerusalem the day before the vote, saying he hoped for change.
周二,以色列人投票率创下74%的纪录,为1974年有记录以来的最高水平。以色列定居者在基里亚特阿尔巴定居点的一所作为投票站的学校排队投票。人们在以色列乌姆法赫姆的一个投票站准备投票。内塔尼亚胡在耶路撒冷投票后,呼吁以色列人“以正确的方式投票”。
A record 74 per cent of Israelis turned out to vote on Tuesday, marking a high since records began in 1974 Israeli settlers line up to vote at a school serving as a polling station during Israel's general election in the settlement of Kiryat Arba People prepare to vote at a polling station in Umm al-Fahm, Israel Netanyahu, who was seen casting his vote in Jerusalem, called on Israelis to vote 'the right way'.
内塔尼亚胡的主要对手艾森科特在投票开始时已在奥法基姆与选民会面,该社区是10月7日哈马斯领导的武装分子袭击以色列南部社区之一。艾森科特在加沙战斗中失去了儿子和两个侄子。
Eisenkot, Netanyahu's top rival, was up and meeting voters as polls opened in Ofakim, one of the communities in southern Israel that was attacked by Hamas-led militants on October 7. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews to combat in Gaza.
此次探访很可能旨在提醒选民注意以色列历史上最致命武装袭击前的安全失误,以及内塔尼亚胡拒绝成立国家调查委员会调查这些失误。
The visit was likely aimed at reminding voters of the security failures ahead of the deadliest militant attack on Israel in its history, and of Netanyahu's refusal of a state commission of inquiry into them.
与此同时,强硬派国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本·格维尔佩戴着他标志性的绞索形翻领别针,在西岸定居点基里亚特·阿尔巴投下选票,他的支持者在那里设置了横幅和扩音器。数千名以色列志愿选举观察员已部署在全国各地的投票站,以监督此次选举。
Meanwhile, wearing his trademark noose-shaped lapel pin, hard-Right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir cast his ballot in the West Bank settlement of Kiryat Arba, where his supporters had set up banners and speakers Thousands of volunteer Israeli election observers were in place at polling stations across the country to monitor the election.
埃亚尔·谢尔表示,他自愿加入一个名为“选举卫士”的公民社会团体,因为他想在这场至关重要的投票中发挥作用。
Eyal Sher said he volunteered with a civil society group called Elections Guards because he wanted to play a role in such a critical vote.
“我们有一个腐败的政府,为了保住权力什么都做得出来,”他说。“每一票都很重要,我们要确保程序完好无损。”据以色列中央选举委员会称,超过730万以色列人拥有投票资格,其中包括约33万名在战争阴影下度过高中岁月的年轻以色列人。
'We have a corrupt government that will do anything to stay in power,' he said. 'Every vote counts and we want to make sure the procedures are kept intact.' According to Israel's Central Election Committee, more than 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote, including around 330,000 young Israelis who spent their high school years in the shadow of war.
内塔尼亚胡近二十年来一直是以色列最具主导地位的政治人物,若表现不佳,可能会让这位77岁老人的漫长职业生涯以苦涩的结局收场,并为以色列政治的新时代打开大门。
Netanyahu has been Israel's most dominant politician for nearly two decades, and a poor showing could end the 77-year-old's lengthy career on a bitter note and open the door to a new era in Israeli politics.
若获胜,则将巩固他作为终极政治幸存者的形象。本月早些时候,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普支持内塔尼亚胡连任,但这一迟来的背书对这位利库德集团政治人物而言仍是一个挫折,他曾将自己与这位共和党总统的紧密关系标榜为继续执政的卖点。内塔尼亚胡一直是与宗教和民族主义伙伴组建联盟的大师。
A victory would cement his image as the ultimate political survivor. Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump backed Netanyahu's reelection, but the late endorsement still marked a setback for the Likud politician who had billed his tight ties to the Republican president as a selling point for staying in power. Netanyahu has been a master at forming coalitions with religious and nationalist partners.
艾森科特已承诺成立一个独立的州调查委员会,调查导致此次袭击的安全失误,而内塔尼亚胡政府一直对此予以抵制。
Eisenkot has pledged to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures that led to the attack, something Netanyahu's government has resisted.
试图将总理拉下马的,是一个由艾森科特领导的“亚沙尔”党牵头、从右翼到中左翼的非正式政党联盟——其中包括前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特和亚伊尔·拉皮德,以及资深政治人物阿维格多·利伯曼和左倾的亚伊尔·戈兰。
Seeking to unseat the premier is an informal bloc of parties led by Eisenkot's Yashar and spanning from the Right to the centre-Left - including former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, as well as seasoned politician Avigdor Lieberman and Left-leaning Yair Golan.
艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡均未公开表示将与以阿拉伯人为主的政党名单结盟,这些名单代表约占以色列人口21%的群体,若选情如预期般胶着,它们可能成为左右局势的关键少数。
Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu has publicly said they would partner with the predominantly Arab lists, which represent some 21 percent of Israel's population and who could become kingmakers if the results are as close as expected.
以色列历史上最血腥的一天在竞选中占据显著位置,但关于以色列在加沙的战时行为——这导致国际刑事法院对内塔尼亚胡发出逮捕令——几乎没有任何辩论。
The deadliest day in Israel's history has featured prominently in the campaign, but there has been almost no debate over Israel's wartime conduct in Gaza, which led to an international arrest warrant against Netanyahu.
以色列占领黎巴嫩南部大部分地区和叙利亚部分领土,以及其发动的两场针对伊朗的战争,在以色列人中也获得广泛支持。
Israel's occupation of much of southern Lebanon and parts of Syria, as well as its two wars launched against Iran, also has broad support among Israelis.
候选人反而将重点放在内塔尼亚胡在10月7日安全失职中的角色,以及他试图豁免极端正统派犹太人服兵役、以及2023年被批评者视为对以色列民主制度发动攻击的司法改革上。
The candidates have instead focused on Netanyahu's role in the security breakdown on October 7 as well as his efforts to exempt ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service and a 2023 judicial overhaul seen by critics as an assault on Israel's democratic institutions.