达，项目辛迪加 | 2026年10月27日巴西的浮动汇率、高额外汇储备、强劲的大宗商品出口以及主要以本币计价的债务，降低了其发生国际收支危机的风险。尽管如此，总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦治下财政状况的持续恶化，将带来高昂的国内代价。
By Gene Frieda, Project Syndicate | October 27, 2026 Brazil’s floating exchange rate, high foreign-exchange reserves, strong commodity exports, and debt denominated predominantly in its own currency reduce its exposure to a balance-of-payments crisis. Nonetheless, continued fiscal deterioration under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will carry high domestic costs.
伦敦——巴西有一个令人遗憾的习惯：总是令人失望。尽管该国拥有非凡的自然资源禀赋，其增长轨迹却颇似巴西人所说的“鸡飞”：短暂扑腾一下，然后不可避免地跌回地面。总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦意外再次当选，加大了再次令人失望的风险。
LONDON—Brazil has an unfortunate habit of disappointing. Despite the country’s exceptional natural-resource endowment, its growth trajectory resembles what Brazilians call the flight of a chicken (voo de galinha): a brief flutter followed by an inevitable fall back down to Earth. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise re-election raises the risk of another letdown.
到2030年卸任时，卢拉担任总统的时间将达到16年（非连续）。如今，在经历了近四年的宽松财政政策之后，巴西的公共财政已经岌岌可危。公共部门债务已从2023年占GDP的73.8%上升至预计2026年底的86.6%。
By the time he leaves office in 2030, Lula will have occupied the presidency for 16 (non-consecutive) years. Today, Brazil’s public finances are already precarious, following nearly four years of loose fiscal policy. Public-sector debt has risen from 73.8% of GDP in 2023 to a projected 86.6% by the end of 2026.
要将债务稳定在这一水平，需要持续保持至少相当于GDP 1.5%的基本财政盈余。然而，巴西今年的基本财政赤字预计约为GDP的0.5%。政府的财政目标不包括某些会增加借款需求的支出。经经济周期和临时财政措施调整后，国际货币基金组织估计，巴西2026年的结构性基本赤字约为潜在GDP的1.3%。
Stabilizing debt at this level would require a sustained primary fiscal surplus of at least 1.5% of GDP. Instead, Brazil is expected to run a primary deficit of around 0.5% of GDP this year. The government’s fiscal targets exclude some expenditure that contributes to borrowing requirements. Adjusting for the economic cycle and temporary fiscal measures, the International Monetary Fund puts Brazil’s structural primary deficit at an estimated 1.3% of potential GDP in 2026.
如果不进行财政调整，巴西的债务在未来四年可能再增加10个百分点。但没有任何迹象表明卢拉会推行必要的改革。在竞选的最后几周，他承诺了额外的福利、补贴和减税措施，当地估计这些措施在2027年可能耗费GDP的0.4%至0.6%。一些措施无需新立法即可实施，但持续为其提供资金将需要议会达成一致。
Without fiscal adjustment, Brazil’s debt could increase by another ten percentage points over the next four years. But there is no sign Lula will pursue the necessary changes. In the final weeks of the campaign, he promised additional benefits, subsidies, and tax relief that local estimates suggest could cost 0.4–0.6% of GDP in 2027. Some measures can be implemented without new legislation, but their continued financing will require parliamentary agreement.
政府的“支出上限”已全部分配完毕，新的支出需要相应的削减、额外收入或进一步突破其财政框架的例外。这些都不容易。国会中有20多个政党代表，近年来扩大了其在预算分配中的影响力。议员们有强烈的动机捍卫现有福利，并花掉任何额外资源。
With the government’s “expenditure ceiling” already fully allocated, new spending requires offsetting cuts, additional revenues, or further exceptions to its fiscal framework. None will be easy. Congress, with more than 20 parties represented, has expanded its influence over budget allocations in recent years. Legislators have strong incentives to defend existing benefits and spend any additional resources.
此外，巴西的税负占GDP的32.4%，对于新兴经济体来说已经异常高。过去两年，国会一再抵制政府的增税努力，而新当选的立法机构右翼色彩明显更浓。
Furthermore, at 32.4% of GDP, Brazil’s tax burden is already unusually high for an emerging economy. Congress has repeatedly resisted the government’s revenue-raising efforts over the past two years, and the newly elected legislature is substantially more right wing.
卢拉面临的选择是：主动调整财政政策，还是等待金融市场迫使他出手。推迟的政治动机相当大。前总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫在2014年连任后试图收紧财政，结果疏远了部分政治基础，也未能阻止她在2016年被弹劾。卢拉可能更愿意让市场压力为不受欢迎的措施提供政治理由。但市场有动机试探这种不情愿，提高借贷成本，并可能迫使以后进行更痛苦的调整。
Lula faces a choice between adjusting fiscal policy proactively or waiting for financial markets to force his hand. The political incentive to delay is considerable. Former President Dilma Rousseff’s attempt at fiscal tightening following her 2014 re-election alienated parts of her political base and failed to prevent her impeachment in 2016. Lula may prefer to let market pressure provide the political justification for unpopular measures. But markets have an incentive to test that reluctance, raising borrowing costs and potentially forcing a more painful adjustment later.
新国会也将考验巴西的制度。在未来四年里，卢拉可以提名最高法院11名法官中的4名替代人选，并填补央行理事会全部九个席位。这些任命都需要参议院确认。历史上，这不过是形式而已，但参议院在4月拒绝了卢拉的最高法院提名人豪尔赫·梅西亚斯——这是自1894年以来首次此类拒绝——表明橡皮图章式确认的日子可能已经结束。
The new Congress will also test Brazilian institutions. Over the next four years, Lula can nominate replacements for four of the Supreme Court’s 11 justices and fill all nine seats on the central bank’s governing board. These appointments all require Senate confirmation. Historically, this has been little more than a formality, but the Senate’s rejection of Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, Jorge Messias, in April—the first such rejection since 1894—suggests that the days of rubber-stamp confirmations may be over.
这两个机构都将承受日益加剧的政治紧张。最高法院将裁决围绕行政权力、国会支出权和受宪法保护的支出的分歧。央行将面临压力，被迫配合一种政治体系似乎不愿纠正的财政状况。
Both institutions will be subject to intensifying political tensions. The Supreme Court will adjudicate disagreements over executive authority, congressional spending powers, and constitutionally protected expenditure. The central bank will face pressure to accommodate a fiscal position that the political system appears unwilling to correct.
这种压力已经显现。央行由卢拉任命的总裁加布里埃尔·加利波洛在选举前抵制更快的降息，令执政党部分人士不满。卢拉现在有机会重塑央行领导层。然而金融市场却朝相反方向运行：卢拉获胜后，利率期货开始定价重新收紧，而非选举前预期的降息。政治要求降息与市场要求收紧政策之间的冲突，可能成为对央行独立性的重大考验。
This pressure is already evident. The central bank’s Lula-appointed governor, Gabriel Galípolo, frustrated elements of the ruling party by resisting faster interest-rate cuts before the election. Lula now has an opportunity to reshape the bank’s leadership. Yet financial markets have moved in the opposite direction: following Lula’s victory, interest-rate futures began pricing renewed tightening, rather than the cuts expected before the election. The conflict between political demands for lower rates and market demands for tighter policy could become a major test of the bank’s independence.
自2021年获得运营独立性以来，通胀在近三分之二的月份里超过央行目标区间上限。财政可信度恶化可能推高通胀预期和实际利率，同时削弱本币。由此对银行体系造成的压力也在加大，不良贷款已经在上升。进一步货币紧缩可能加剧信贷损失并制约放贷。
Inflation has exceeded the upper bound of the central bank’s target range for nearly two-thirds of the months since it was granted operational independence in 2021. Deteriorating fiscal credibility could raise inflation expectations and real interest rates, while weakening the currency. The resulting pressure on the banking system is also growing, with non-performing loans already rising. Further monetary tightening could aggravate credit losses and constrain lending.
巴西的浮动汇率、可观的外汇储备和强劲的大宗商品出口，加之其债务主要以本币计价，降低了其遭遇国际收支危机的风险。但这些并不能消除财政恶化带来的国内成本。随着投资者要求为通胀和财政风险获得更高的补偿，借贷成本将上升，使债务动态恶化。持续高企的实际利率会抑制私人投资并削弱增长。
Brazil’s floating exchange rate, substantial foreign-exchange reserves, and strong commodity exports, together with the fact that its debt is denominated predominantly in its own currency, reduce its exposure to a balance-of-payments crisis. But these do not eliminate the domestic costs of fiscal deterioration. As investors demand higher compensation for inflation and fiscal risks, borrowing costs will rise, worsening debt dynamics. Persistently high real interest rates depress private investment and weaken growth.
政治极化使围绕财政约束达成共识变得尤为困难。巴西可能面临一个高通胀、货币疲软、实际利率高企和增长乏力的漫长时期。一如过去，无论巴西这只“鸡”如何拼命扇动翅膀，都无法获得任何升力。
Political polarization makes consensus around fiscal restraint especially difficult. Brazil might face a prolonged period of high inflation, currency weakness, high real interest rates, and mediocre growth. As in the past, the Brazilian chicken will be unable to gain any lift, no matter how hard it flaps its wings.
吉恩·弗里达曾任太平洋投资管理公司全球策略师，现为伦敦政治经济学院高级访问研究员和布鲁盖尔研究所非驻所研究员。
Gene Frieda, a former global strategist at PIMCO, is a senior visiting fellow at the London School of Economics and a non-resident fellow at Bruegel.
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美联储今天成为焦点。投资者等待下午的利率决定以及主席凯文·沃什的新闻发布会，以寻找货币政策走向的线索。
The Federal Reserve takes center stage today. Investors await the afternoon interest-rate decision and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for clues about the path of monetary policy.
石油和通胀仍是主要担忧。能源价格高企和中东供应中断继续使通胀前景复杂化，限制了美联储放松政策的空间。
Oil and inflation remain major concerns. Elevated energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions continue to complicate the inflation outlook, limiting the Fed's room to ease policy.
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AI enthusiasm is lifting global stocks. South Korea's Kospi surged more than 6% after SK Hynix reported a sevenfold increase in quarterly operating profit, while Japanese and Chinese shares also advanced.
大型科技公司的财报将考验这轮AI涨势。Alphabet和微软将在今日收盘后发布财报，投资者希望从中寻找证据，证明巨额AI投资正在产生可持续的回报。今日美国经济数据日历上的重要经济事件。
Big Tech earnings will test the AI rally. Alphabet and Microsoft report after today's close, with investors looking for evidence that massive AI investments are generating sustainable returns. Key Economic Events On today's U.S. data calendar. 2:00 p.m.
美东时间下午2：00——美联储利率决议 预测：3.75%–4.00%（维持不变）| 前值：3.75%–4.00% 市场普遍预计美联储将维持利率不变，关注焦点集中在其对通胀的评估以及进一步收紧政策的可能性上。
ET — Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Forecast: 3.75%–4.00% (Hold) | Previous: 3.75%–4.00% The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, with attention focused on its assessment of inflation and the likelihood of further tightening.
美东时间下午2：30——美联储主席新闻发布会 主席凯文·沃什的讲话将受到仔细审视，以寻找有关12月会议、通胀风险以及利率前景的信号。
2:30 p.m. ET — Federal Reserve Chair Press Conference Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks will be scrutinized for signals about the December meeting, inflation risks and the outlook for interest rates.
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