路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦总统及其经济顾问在讨论巴西的财政计划时，一个警示性的故事反复浮现：迪尔玛·罗塞夫在2014年赢得连任后突然转向紧缩政策，这一转变随后导致她的支持率暴跌，不到两年后她便遭到弹劾。
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his economic advisers debate Brazil’s fiscal plans, one cautionary tale keeps resurfacing: Dilma Rousseff’s abrupt embrace of austerity after winning reelection in 2014, a pivot followed by a collapse in her popularity and her impeachment less than two years later.
罗塞夫在竞选中反对削减开支，却在获胜后收紧财政政策，并任命了一位亲市场的财政部长。尽管仅凭这一逆转并不能解释她的下台，但这段经历在12年后仍是塑造卢拉财政政策取向的创伤性记忆。这也是迄今为止最明确的信号，表明这位81岁的左翼领导人在他的第四个也是最后一个总统任期内，绝不会削减社会支出。
Rousseff had campaigned against spending cuts, only to tighten fiscal policy after her victory and appoint a market-friendly finance minister. While that reversal alone does not explain her downfall, the episode remains a traumatic memory shaping Lula’s approach to fiscal policy 12 years later. It is also the clearest sign yet that the 81-year-old leftist will do anything but slash social spending in his fourth and final presidential term.
相反，他们在会议上讨论的计划涉及渐进式财政调整，目标是到卢拉四年任期结束时实现占国内生产总值1.5%的基本预算盈余——该指标不包括利息支付。这一数字低于投资者的期望，也将排除他们的一些最大诉求，包括终止最低工资实际增长以及为公共支出增长设定更低上限。
Instead, the plans discussed in their meetings involves a gradual fiscal adjustment that aims for a primary budget surplus — which excludes interest payments — of 1.5% of gross domestic product by the end of Lula’s four-year term. That figure is short of what investors want and will leave out some of their biggest demands, including the end of real minimum wage increases and a lower limit for public spending growth.
参与当前与总统讨论的人士表示，在卢拉看来，现在急剧转向财政紧缩将削弱正是让这位左翼领导人重新掌权的政治纲领，并有可能疏远支持者。而且，据知情人士透露，卢拉不想以这样的方式结束总统任期：在最后几年做了罗塞夫被指控的事情——在选举中背叛选民。
People involved in the current discussions with the president say that, in Lula’s view, a sharp fiscal turn now would undercut the very platform that returned the leftist leader to power and risk alienating supporters. And, according to people with knowledge of the matter, Lula doesn’t want to end his presidency as someone who in his final years did what Rousseff was accused of: an electoral betrayal of voters.
目前正在讨论的主要财政提案将允许政府扩大联邦预算中可能受到支出冻结影响的部分。在实践中，这一机制将赋予卢拉政府更大的灵活性来控制支出，并确保其达到预算目标。
The main fiscal proposal currently under discussion would allow the government to expand the portion of the federal budget that could be subject to spending freezes. In practice, that mechanism would give Lula’s administration more flexibility to control expenditures and ensure it meets its budget targets.
其中一位人士表示，政府还打算提高社会项目的效率，并控制那些增速超过巴西财政框架允许范围的支出。
The government also intends to improve the efficiency of social programs and to rein in expenditures that are growing faster than what’s allowed under Brazil’s fiscal framework, one of the people said.
但投资者正强烈要求政府采取行动，目前巴西的名义预算赤字徘徊在GDP的10%附近，公共债务攀升至创纪录水平。在竞选期间，卢拉通过燃料补贴和信贷等措施额外支出数十亿美元，加剧了该国的财政前景。到目前为止，他还没有表现出要以市场希望的方式扭转方向的迹象。
But investors are clamoring for action as Brazil’s nominal budget deficit hovers near 10% of GDP and public debt climbs to a record. During his campaign, Lula aggravated the nation’s fiscal outlook by spending billions of dollars extra on measures including fuel subsidies and credit. As of now, he has given no sign of reversing course in a way that markets want.
总统坚持走与市场不同的方向，再加上已经在讨论中的计划，加剧了他自己团队中一些成员的担忧，即他只会加深投资者之间的不信任。他们的观点是，如果财政状况恶化，那么巴西的通胀预测将会上升，经济增长预测将会下降。
The president’s insistence on going a different direction from markets, coupled with the plans that are already under discussion, have fueled fears among some of his own team members that he’ll only exacerbate mistrust among investors. The view is that, if the fiscal picture worsens, then Brazil’s inflation forecasts will rise and economic growth projections will fall.
周日决选后市场重新开盘时，投资者的担忧暴露无遗。周一巴西资产暴跌，雷亚尔走弱，基准的Ibovespa股票指数暴跌，互换利率飙升，卢拉的胜利令那些曾预计政府和财政方向都会发生变化的观察人士感到震惊。
Investor worries were laid bare when markets reopened after Sunday’s runoff. Brazilian assets cratered on Monday, with the real weakening, the benchmark Ibovespa stock index plunging and swap rates surging as Lula’s win shocked observers who had expected change in both government and fiscal direction.
巴西总统府拒绝就本文置评。周二，现任财政部长达里奥·杜里甘表示，政府将确保其遵守财政目标方面不存在不确定性。
Brazil’s presidential palace declined to comment on this story. On Tuesday, current Finance Minister Dario Durigan said the government will ensure there’s no uncertainty about its adherence to fiscal goals.
“总统的政府致力于财政责任和稳定，”他说，并补充说新措施将很快宣布。
“The president’s government is committed to fiscal responsibility and stability,” he said, adding that new measures will be announced soon.
投资者现在将目光投向卢拉为其下一任期选择的财政部长，以寻找有关其经济政策方向的新线索。总统尚未表明他计划任命谁，这让市场猜测谁将负责实施他的财政议程。
Investors are now looking to Lula’s choice of finance minister for his next term for fresh clues about the direction of his economic policy. The president has yet to indicate who he plans to appoint, leaving markets guessing who will be in charge of implementing his fiscal agenda.
卢拉盟友讨论的人选中包括拉斐尔·丰特莱斯，现任东北部皮奥伊州州长，他在卢拉竞选决选期间崭露头角，成为一位有影响力的人物。这位前州财政秘书以财政纪律著称，一些盟友认为，他既能缓解投资者担忧，又能保持与卢拉政治议程的一致性。杜里甘已成为与金融市场沟通的关键中间人，也可能留任。
Among the names being discussed by Lula’s allies is Rafael Fonteles, currently governor of the northeastern state of Piauí, who emerged as an influential figure in the president’s campaign during the runoff. A former state finance secretary with a reputation for fiscal discipline, Fonteles is seen by some allies as a person who could help ease investor concerns while remaining aligned with Lula’s political agenda. Durigan, who has become a key intermediary with financial markets, could also remain in the post.