巴西利亚10月26日电 - 分析人士称，巴西八旬总统卢拉·达席尔瓦在其最后一个任期的第一天起就面临艰难的斗争，他的计划受到经济逆风和右翼国会的制约。
BRASÍLIA, Oct 26 - Brazil's octogenarian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva faces an uphill battle from day one of his final term, analysts say, with his plans hemmed in by economic headwinds and a right-wing Congress.
作为巴西历史上最年长的总统，卢拉在首轮投票失利后，于周日在决选中意外击败参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，以51.8%的得票率赢得创纪录的第四个任期，距其81岁生日仅两天。
Already the country's oldest president, Lula overcame a first-round loss to pull off a surprise runoff victory against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro on Sunday, securing 51.8% of votes and a record fourth term just two days before his 81st birthday.
他在赢得自己称之为最后一次选举后，将于1月5日就职，在一个自2002年他首次当选以来已大幅右倾的国家中继续掌权。“财政政策是他最大的挑战”“卢拉表明他仍是其时代的主导政治人物，但他更弱了，”智库国际政策中心的迈克尔·安·帕尔伯格说。
He will take office on January 5 after winning what he has said was his last election, hanging on to power in a country that has swung dramatically to the right since his first electoral victory in 2002. FISCAL POLICY 'HIS BIGGEST CHALLENGE' "Lula has shown that he still is the dominant political figure of his era, but he is weaker," Michael Ahn Paarlberg of the Center for International Policy think tank said.
巴西新一届国会是该国1980年代重返民主以来最保守的国会，博索纳罗的政党及其盟友在两院均享有多数席位。
Brazil's incoming Congress is its most conservative since the country's return to democracy in the 1980s, with Bolsonaro's party and its allies enjoying majorities in both chambers.
圣保罗热图利奥·瓦加斯基金会国际关系教授奥利弗·斯滕克尔说：“他从一开始很可能就是跛脚鸭”，并预测卢拉将难以建立联盟以通过其大部分议程。
"He's likely to be a lame duck from the start," said Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor at Sao Paulo's Getulio Vargas Foundation, who predicted Lula would struggle to build a coalition to pass much of his agenda.
分析人士称，截至周一上午，博索纳罗——前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗之子——尚未认输，卢拉面临国会中不承认其胜利的对手。
As of Monday morning, Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, had yet to concede, and Lula faced the prospect of adversaries in Congress who do not recognize his win, analysts said.
此外，过去十年来，国会已积累了对政府支出的重大控制权，这可能会挫败卢拉维持其标志性福利计划的承诺。
In addition, Congress has amassed significant power over government spending in the past decade, which could frustrate Lula's promises to maintain his signature welfare programs.
与此同时，政府预测明年经济增长仅为2.3%，加上高利率和公共债务已增至GDP的82%以上（为疫情以来最高水平），财政挑战进一步加剧。
Meanwhile, his government forecasts meager 2.3% economic growth next year, adding to fiscal challenges worsened by high interest rates and public debt that has grown past 82% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic.
“从宏观经济大局来看，形势并不乐观，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员莫妮卡·德博莱说。
"On the broad macroeconomic outlook, things are not looking great," Monica de Bolle, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said.
她说，一个敌对的国会“将使得很难推动任何改革通过国会，甚至难以管理预算”。
A hostile Congress "will make it very hard to push any reform through Congress and even try to manage the budget," she said.
卢拉承诺确保最低工资涨幅高于通胀，这与日益增长的控制债务压力相冲突。卢拉的助手们也已发出信号，称他将继续推动削减税收优惠，但议员们一再抵制增加实际税负的措施。
Lula's promises to ensure minimum wage increases remain above inflation are among those that clash with growing pressure to get debt under control. Lula’s aides have also signaled he will keep pushing to curtail tax breaks, but lawmakers have repeatedly resisted measures that raise the effective tax burden.
“财政政策仍然是卢拉面临的最大经济挑战，”Pantheon Macroeconomics首席拉美经济学家安德烈斯·阿巴迪亚说，因为不断增长的强制性支出和高昂的利息成本，留给削减赤字的空间很小。
"Fiscal policy remains Lula's biggest economic challenge," said Andres Abadia, chief Latin American economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, as growing mandatory spending and high interest costs leave little room to cut deficits.
分析人士表示，经济危机甚至可能引发卢拉遭弹劾，有人将其与巴西2014-2016年危机相比较，那场危机随后导致卢拉的盟友、时任总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫被弹劾。
Analysts said an economic crisis could even spur Lula's impeachment, with some drawing comparisons to Brazil's 2014-2016 crisis, which preceded the impeachment of Lula's ally Dilma Rousseff.
“我认为，针对卢拉的弹劾运动现在就开始了，”曾参与前总统博索纳罗首次竞选活动、并与其子身边人士有过交谈的政治学家保罗·克雷默说。
"I think the campaign for Lula's impeachment begins now," said Paulo Kramer, a political scientist who worked on former President Bolsonaro's first campaign and has spoken to people close to his son.
投资者周一早盘反应紧张，在重新评估卢拉执政下巴西的财政前景后，抛售巴西资产，导致其大幅下跌。
Investors reacted nervously on Monday morning, sending Brazilian assets sharply lower as markets reassessed the country's fiscal outlook under Lula.
参议院成绊脚石 分析人士称，国会有可能阻挠或拖延卢拉对最高法院和中央银行等关键机构要职的人事任命。
SENATE STUMBLING BLOCK Congress is likely to block or slow Lula's appointments to key roles in institutions such as the Supreme Court and the central bank, analysts say.
巴西利亚咨询公司Arko Advice合伙人卢卡斯·德阿拉戈说，自巴西重返民主以来，行政分支将首次与参议院明显对立。
For the first time since Brazil returned to democracy, the executive branch will be clearly at odds with the Senate, Lucas de Aragao, a partner at Brasilia-based consultancy Arko Advice, said.
阿拉戈补充道：“卢拉在众议院仍有一定谈判空间，可通过给中间派政党更多空间来达成交易，但在参议院，他将不得不逐项讨价还价，并调整立法议程以迎合反对派的意愿。”
"Lula will have some room to negotiate in the lower house by giving centrist parties more space, but in the Senate he will have to bargain issue by issue and adjust his legislative agenda to fit what the opposition wants," Aragao added.
博尔索纳罗在新一届参议院的盟友也誓言要弹劾大法官亚历山大·德莫赖斯，将他们与一个强大司法部门长期以来的斗争升级，该司法部门经常与卢拉站在一起，阻挠关键的右翼立法，并在从原住民权利到互联网等各个方面塑造政策。
Bolsonaro's allies in the incoming Senate have also vowed to impeach Justice Alexandre de Moraes, escalating their long-running fight with a powerful judiciary that has often aligned with Lula, blocking key right-wing legislation and shaping policy on everything from Indigenous rights to the internet.