巴西利亚,10月30日电——巴西总统卢拉·达席尔瓦连任不足一周,其政府成员和工人党(PT)成员已就可能出台的更严厉开支措施划定“红线”,凸显了在其政治基本盘抵制下遏制巴西不断攀升债务的挑战。
BRASILIA, Oct 30 - Less than a week after Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's re-election, members of his government and Workers Party (PT) are drawing red lines around potential tougher spending measures, underscoring the challenge of slowing Brazil's rising debt amid resistance from his political base.
“这个问题(财政调整)没有讨论过,正在讨论,当然也不会在我们党团内部讨论,”制度关系部长若泽·吉马良斯在卢拉当选两天后对记者表示。
"That issue (fiscal adjustment) was not discussed, is not being discussed, and certainly is not being discussed within our caucus," Institutional Relations Minister Jose Guimaraes told reporters two days after Lula's election victory.
“削减开支的承诺输掉了大选,”总统秘书长吉列尔梅·布洛斯周四在社交媒体上写道,主张任何调整应仅依靠削减国会预算指定拨款和税收优惠。
"The pledge of spending cuts lost the election," Presidential Secretary-General Guilherme Boulos wrote on social media on Thursday, arguing that any adjustment should rely solely on reducing Congress budget earmarks and tax breaks.
同一天,工人党执行委员会发表声明称,开支控制不应以牺牲穷人为代价。
The same day, the PT's executive committee issued a statement saying controls on spending should not come at the expense of the poor.
这些言论加剧了投资者的担忧,他们期盼看到迹象表明卢拉的下届政府将应对国债飙升问题。在卢拉执政期间,国债已上升逾11个百分点,达到国内生产总值(GDP)的82.9%,财政不确定性推高了政府借贷成本。
The comments have fueled concerns among investors hoping for signs that Lula's next administration will tackle national debt that has climbed more than 11 percentage points during his presidency to hit 82.9% of gross domestic product, as fiscal uncertainty drives up government borrowing costs.
“市场反应的原因是政府缺乏紧迫感,未展示其打算如何应对债务上升,”前财政部秘书、ASA宏观经济主管杰弗森·比滕库特表示。
"The reason for the market reaction is the government's lack of urgency in showing how it intends to address rising debt," said Jeferson Bittencourt, former Treasury secretary and head of macroeconomics at ASA.
这场辩论凸显了卢拉面临的困难:他在试图提出可信的财政计划时,不能疏远帮助他赢得惊人胜利的选民群体。
The debate highlights the difficulties facing Lula as he tries to present a credible fiscal plan without alienating constituencies that helped secure his surprising victory.
关注焦点也转向了谁将在这样的背景下领导巴西财政部,以及此人是否拥有足够政治资本克服内部阻力以压缩开支。
Attention has also turned to who will lead Brazil's finance ministry against such backdrop and whether that person will have the political capital to overcome internal resistance to rein in spending.
一位政府消息人士称,收紧巴西财政框架仍在考虑之中,但补充说,此举需要卢拉批准。
Tightening Brazil's fiscal framework remains under consideration, a government source said, though adding that such a move would require Lula's approval.
目前,政府经济团队提出了一个更为温和的调整方案,将目标锁定在政府主要财政平衡目标的中点——明年实现相当于国内生产总值(GDP)0.5%的盈余,而不是财政框架容忍区间下限、即 GDP 的正负 0.25 个百分点。
For now, the government's economic team has proposed a more modest change, targeting the midpoint of the government's primary balance goal, a surplus of 0.5% of gross domestic product next year, rather than the lower end of the fiscal framework's tolerance band of 0.25 percentage point of GDP on either side.