华盛顿，10月28日电——以色列大选未能产生明确赢家，总统唐纳德·特朗普可能面临长期的不确定性，不知谁将领导华盛顿在中东最亲密的盟友，而他正在整个地区面临来自伊朗和加沙的挑战。
WASHINGTON, Oct 28 - With Israel's election yielding no clear winner, President Donald Trump could face prolonged uncertainty over who will lead Washington's closest Middle East ally as he confronts challenges from Iran and Gaza across the region.
总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼集团在以色列议会中赢得最多席位，但尽管特朗普曾背书支持他对抗由鹰派前军方首长加迪·艾森科特领导的竞争对手政党联盟，该集团周二仍失去了议会多数席位。
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc secured the most seats in Israel's parliament but still lost its parliamentary majority on Tuesday despite Trump having endorsed him against a rival alliance of parties led by hawkish former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.
虽然内塔尼亚胡似乎处于更有利地位，但自2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的袭击以及随后在加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的战争爆发以来，以色列首次大选后，双方均无预期能有一条明确组阁路径。
While Netanyahu seemed in a stronger position, neither side was projected to have an outright path to form a new government after Israel’s first election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the ensuing wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
局面似乎将进入艰难的联合组阁谈判期——甚至可能再次大选——而内塔尼亚胡将以看守身份继续掌权。
The stage appeared to be set for a period of painstaking coalition bargaining – or possibly another election – while Netanyahu remains in power in a caretaker capacity.
选举结果将对美以关系产生影响，美以关系一直由共同对抗伊朗、停滞的加沙和平努力以及美国公众对以色列支持出现侵蚀迹象所主导。
The outcome will have implications for US-Israeli relations, which have been dominated by the joint fight against Iran, stalled Gaza peace efforts and signs of eroding US public support for Israel.
这种不确定性出现在特朗普的敏感时刻，当时他和内塔尼亚胡曾威胁要联手发动新一轮针对伊朗的袭击。
The uncertainty comes at a sensitive moment for Trump, when he and Netanyahu have threatened to join in another round of attacks against Iran.
“以色列政治可能很混乱，”曾在民主党和共和党政府担任中东顾问的亚伦·大卫·米勒说。从美国角度来看，他说，“获得一些明确性固然好，但说起来容易做起来难。” 特朗普更倾向哪种结果？
“Israeli politics can be messy,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser in Democratic and Republican administrations. From the US perspective, he said, "it would be good to get some clarity, but that's easier said than done." WHICH OUTCOME WOULD TRUMP PREFER?
内塔尼亚胡——一位老练的政治幸存者，与特朗普有着数十年的密切但有时动荡的关系——可能再次幸存下来。他是任职时间最长的以色列总理，也是美国总统唯一共事过的一位。
Netanyahu – a consummate political survivor who has had a close but sometimes turbulent relationship with Trump dating back decades – may have survived again. He is the longest-serving Israeli prime minister and the only one the US president has ever worked with.
艾森科特在竞选期间塑造了政治局外人和注重安全的前将军形象，其执政前景虽已黯淡但并未完全熄灭。据悉，他从未与特朗普会面。
Eisenkot, who projected an image as a political outsider and security-minded former general during the campaign, has seen his governing chances dimmed but not extinguished. He is not known to have ever met Trump.
一些分析人士认为，组建一个让内塔尼亚胡继续掌权的广泛团结政府，可能符合特朗普对政治稳定的以色列伙伴的利益。但双方均未表现出走这条路的意愿。
Some analysts say creation of a broad unity government keeping Netanyahu in power might serve Trump's interest in a politically stable Israeli partner. But neither side has shown a willingness to take that path.
当被问及是否会介入组建内塔尼亚胡领导的团结政府的努力时，特朗普周三告诉《Axios》网站，他尚未考虑此事，并补充道：“我会研究一下。” 选举结果对与伊朗的战争意味着什么？
Asked whether he was going to get involved in an effort to form a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump told Axios on Wednesday he hadn't thought about it, adding: "I will take a look." WHAT DOES THE ELECTION MEAN FOR THE WAR WITH IRAN?
首要问题是特朗普可能如何与以色列在对伊战争中打交道，这场战争已震动中东。这场持续八个月的冲突扰乱了全球能源供应，推高了美国汽油价格，并拖低了他的支持率，危及共和党在11月3日中期选举中对国会的控制权。
Topping the list is how Trump might engage with Israel in the war against Iran, which has rocked the Middle East. The eight-month-old conflict has disrupted global energy supplies, pushed up US gasoline prices and driven down his approval ratings, imperiling his Republicans' control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections.
特朗普在10月18日的背书中坚称，他希望内塔尼亚胡继续掌权，以帮助他尽快“完成任务”对抗伊朗。总统在隔夜表示，内塔尼亚胡的表现优于选前民调，做得“非常好”，并称他的背书提振了这位以色列领导人。
Trump, in his October 18 endorsement, insisted he wanted Netanyahu to remain in power to help him soon "finish the job” against Iran. The president said overnight that Netanyahu, who outperformed pre-election polls, had done "very well" and that his backing had boosted the Israeli leader.
特朗普已多次发出信号，称美国和以色列可能在中期选举后重启对伊朗的袭击，一些批评人士（包括以色列国内人士）认为，内塔尼亚胡可能将其视为巩固其看守总理政治地位的一种方式。
Trump has repeatedly signaled that the US and Israel could restart attacks on Iran after the midterms, with some critics, including in Israel, suggesting Netanyahu might see it as a way to bolster his political standing as caretaker prime minister.
曾任美国国家情报副官（负责中东事务）的乔纳森·帕尼科夫表示，如果特朗普决定从目前与以色列地区宿敌的僵局中升级，任何未来的以色列领导层很可能会与特朗普保持一致。
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US national intelligence officer on the Middle East, said any future Israeli leadership would likely be on the same page as Trump if he decides to escalate from the current stalemate with Israel’s regional arch-foe.
“很难想象他们在这一点上会有任何实质性分歧，”现任职于华盛顿大西洋理事会智库的帕尼科夫说。
“It’s hard to imagine any real daylight between them on that point,” said Panikoff, now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
内塔尼亚胡和许多以色列人有时与特朗普存在分歧，是在特朗普在如今陷入停滞的与伊斯兰共和国的谈判中提出让步之时。加沙和平努力将面临何种影响？
Where Netanyahu and many Israelis have sometimes differed with Trump is when he has offered concessions in now-stalled negotiations with the Islamic Republic. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GAZA PEACE EFFORTS?
无论以色列下一届政府如何组建，都没有理由相信会在对巴勒斯坦人的强硬政策上出现任何根本性转变。
No matter how Israel’s next government shapes up, there is little reason to believe there will be any sweeping shift in tough policies toward the Palestinians.
这不利于打破以色列与哈马斯之间的外交僵局，也不利于在加沙战争结束后全面落实特朗普的加沙和平计划。以色列为回应武装分子致命的跨境袭击，夷平了该飞地的大部分地区，并造成数万巴勒斯坦人死亡。
This doesn’t bode well for breaking the diplomatic deadlock between Israel and Hamas and fully implementing Trump’s Gaza peace plan following the war there. Israel, in response to the militants' deadly cross-border attack, leveled much of the enclave and killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.
政府官员私下表达了挫败感，认为内塔尼亚胡表现出顽固态度，坚持要求哈马斯必须先解除武装。
Administration officials have privately expressed frustration over what they see as intransigence by Netanyahu, who has insisted that Hamas must first disarm.
艾森科特在加沙战争中失去了一名儿子和两名侄子，他在竞选期间强调自己的军事资历，同时将自己定位为国内的中间派。他誓言要与内塔尼亚胡的极右翼联盟盟友决裂，但不会与自2023年哈马斯袭击以来更加根深蒂固的强硬安全路线决裂。
Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in the Gaza war, stressed his military credentials while positioning himself as a centrist domestically during the election campaign. He has vowed to break with Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies, but not with the hawkish approach to security that has become more entrenched since the 2023 Hamas attack.
与内塔尼亚胡一样，艾森科特反对巴勒斯坦建国，并表示必须摧毁哈马斯的军事翼。
Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot opposes Palestinian statehood and says Hamas' military wing must be destroyed.
但他承诺防止以色列定居者在被占领的约旦河西岸对巴勒斯坦人实施暴力，内塔尼亚胡政府被指纵容此类行为。近几周，定居者袭击事件招致美国官员批评，他们担心该领土可能成为中东另一个火药桶。关于以色列日益加剧的孤立状况如何？
But he has pledged to prevent violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, which Netanyahu’s government has been accused of tolerating. Settler attacks have drawn criticism in recent weeks from US officials worried the territory could become another Middle East flashpoint. WHAT ABOUT ISRAEL'S GROWING ISOLATION?
即使以色列的政治气候预计还将在一段时间内保持动荡，特朗普可能还得应对民意调查预测的民主党在中期选举中夺取参众两院一个或两个控制权的局面。
Even as Israel’s political climate is expected to remain unsettled for some time, Trump may have to contend with what opinion polls project could be the Democrats' takeover of one or both chambers of Congress in the midterms.
这可能意味着来自民主党人的更大压力——民主党对以色列的支持因其在加沙战争中的行为而骤降，旨在限制数十亿美元的美国援助和武器供应。
That could mean increased pressure from Democrats, whose support for Israel plunged over its conduct in the Gaza war, to curb billions of dollars in US aid and weapons supplies.
特朗普的“MAGA”支持者中也有一些人日益批评以色列，指责其误导了特朗普——特朗普在竞选连任时承诺避免外国军事干预——让他相信伊朗可以轻易被击败。
Some members of Trump’s MAGA base have also become increasingly critical of Israel, accusing it of having misled Trump – who campaigned for a second term on a promise to avoid foreign military interventions – into believing Iran could easily be defeated.
特朗普在六月份接受Axios采访时警告内塔尼亚胡，以色列正面临日益加深的国际孤立，多数分析人士表示，即便出现新政府，这一趋势也可能是不可逆转的。
Trump, in an interview with Axios in June, cautioned Netanyahu about Israel's deepening international isolation, and most analysts say the trend may be irreversible, even with a new government.