
在近代历史的任何时刻,未来似乎都未曾如此充满不确定性。在美国各地,那些外观平淡无奇的巨大数据中心内,一种新秩序的人工智能正在成形。我们被告知,在未来几年,它们可能开启一个丰饶时代,将人类从地球上抹去,或是介于两者之间的某种结局。你或许会好奇,做人的含义是否即将发生改变。你或许也会有更切身的疑问——比如关乎个人财务。
At no point in recent history has the future seemed so uncertain. All across America, in cavernous data centers with blank facades, a new order of AIs is taking form. We are told that in the coming years, they may usher in an age of abundance, wipe us clean off the Earth, or something in between. You may wonder whether it will soon mean something different to be human. And you may have more practical questions, too—about your personal finances, for instance.
在华尔街,量化分析师们已经在勾勒可能出现的经济情景,但普通民众同样想知道:只要他们(以及他们的钱)还存在,他们该如何处置自己的财富?
On Wall Street, the quants are already sketching out the likely economic scenarios, but normal people also want to know: What should they be doing with their money, so long as they (and their money) continue to exist?
设想最乐观的AI丰饶情景。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊预言的“压缩的21世纪”科学研究成果真正实现了。智能机器没有毁灭我们,而是治愈了我们的癌症。它们超乎常人的生产力将大多数商品和服务的价格推向接近零。我们发现自己置身于难以想象的奢华茧房之中。我曾问过OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥特曼,这个未来会是什么样子。他告诉我,太阳能机器人将以微不足道的成本为我们建造任何设计的房屋。无人会无家可归,更遑论挨饿。以今天的标准衡量,人人都将非常富有。
Imagine the rosiest AI-abundance scenario. The “compressed 21st century” of scientific research prophesied by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei actually materializes. Instead of killing us, the intelligent machines cure our cancers. Their superhuman productivity drives the price of most goods and services to near zero. We find ourselves encased in cocoons of unimaginable luxury. I once asked Sam Altman, OpenAI’s CEO, what this future might look like. He told me that solar-powered robots would build us any house of our design for a trivial cost. No one would go unsheltered, let alone hungry. By today’s standards, everyone would be very rich.
在这样的世界里,选择最佳财务策略不再关乎生存,但财富层级依然存在。人们可能会争夺经济学家弗雷德·赫希所谓的“位置性商品”——即那些价值取决于别人没有的稀缺物品。一些研究表明,住房在层级中位居榜首。即使如奥特曼所言,建筑问题将得到解决,地段依然至关重要。加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉海岸或曼哈顿西村适合建设的地块只有那么多。
Choosing the best financial strategy in a world like that won’t be an existential concern, but there will still be different levels of wealth. People might vie for what the economist Fred Hirsch called positional goods—scarce stuff whose value depends on other people not having it. Some research suggests that housing ranks highest in the hierarchy of these goods. Even if, as Altman told me, construction will be a solved problem, location is everything. There are only so many buildable lots along California’s Santa Barbara coast or in Manhattan’s West Village.
如果你能买到,现在就买下一块,并囤积那些可验证稀缺的收藏品。如果你已经很富有,就去苏富比拍卖行买下那枚法贝热彩蛋和那具霸王龙骨架。如果你不富有,至少留住你的棒球卡。
Get one now, if you can, and stock up on collectibles that are verifiably rare. If you’re already rich, buy that Fabergé egg and that T. rex skeleton at Sotheby’s. And if you aren’t rich, at least save your baseball cards.
当然,我们未必能迎来人工智能乌托邦。前布鲁金斯学会研究员莫莉·金德描述过一种“混乱的中间阶段”情景:在进入一个更稳定的人工智能未来之前,会经历一段深度的就业动荡和经济混乱。即便是衣食无忧的白领也可能遭遇一系列财务危险。你可能首先注意到的是不再涨薪。你的老板——以及老板的老板——可能会因历史性的经济不确定性而推迟退休。
Of course, we may not get an AI utopia. Molly Kinder, a former Brookings Institution fellow, has described a “messy middle” scenario where a stretch of profound job disruption and economic chaos precedes a more settled AI future. Even comfortable white-collar workers could encounter a gantlet of financial dangers. The first thing you might notice is that you’re no longer getting raises. Your boss—and their boss—may respond to the historic level of economic uncertainty by pushing back their retirement.
他们可能停止招聘初级员工。你的职场晋升阶梯可能缩减为寥寥几级。你将花费越来越多的工作时间审查人工智能的输出结果。深夜下班回家路上,你会琢磨机器智能何时也能接管你的监督工作。
They may stop hiring entry-level workers. Your corporate ladder may shrink down to a few rungs. You’ll spend more and more of your workday reviewing AI output. On your way home at night, you’ll wonder when machine intelligence will be able to do your monitoring work, too.
在这种情况下,你依然背负着房贷、学费,或许还要赡养年迈父母。你不想动用退休账户来弥补亏空,因为中年正是你的 401(k) 计划和 Roth IRA(罗斯个人退休账户)享受复利增长的黄金期。而且如果你提前领取社会保障金,就会被锁定在较低的福利水平——如果 AI 最终真的像 AI 大亨们承诺的那样延长了你的寿命,这将是一个极具风险的举动。所以你可能只能硬撑着,压低开支,随时准备搬迁,想尽办法在一个个就业“救生筏”之间跳跃,直到被淘汰的那一刻到来。
In this scenario, you’ll still have a mortgage, tuition bills, and perhaps elderly parents to care for. You won’t want to tap your retirement accounts to make up for any shortfalls, because your middle years are prime compounding time for your 401(k) and Roth IRA. And if you claim Social Security early, you’re locked in at a lower benefit—a dicey move if AI eventually ends up extending your life, as the AI kingpins have promised. So you may just have to hold on, keeping your expenses low and being ready to relocate on short notice, anything to keep hopping from one employment life raft to another before obsolescence sets in.
这听起来很严峻,但情况可能更糟。设想这样一种情形:AI 引发了一场前所未有的财富创造盛宴,却只惠及极少数持有创建 AI 公司大量股权的人。其他所有人可能被永久归入底层阶级,这正是硅谷部分人士所担忧的。如果你认为这将是我们的未来,不妨设法跻身那批“被选中者”行列——如果不能通过联姻,就尽量把更多资金转入领头前沿实验室的股份。
That may sound grim, but things could be worse. Imagine the scenario in which AI triggers an unprecedented wealth-creation event, but only for the relative few who have significant equity in the companies that created it. Everyone else might be relegated to a permanent underclass, as some in Silicon Valley have come to fear. If you think this will be our future, try to join the elect, if not by marriage, then by shifting as much money as possible into shares in the leading frontier labs.
但这可能很难,因为至少目前 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 仍是私营公司,在二级市场买到它们的股票并不容易。事实上,这些公司的股权已变得极其抢手,以至于加利福尼亚州索诺马县的一位房主在售房时提出,若买家能用 Anthropic 股份支付,便给予 50 万美元折扣。
But that may be difficult, because at least for now, OpenAI and Anthropic are still private companies. Buying their stock on the secondary market is not easy. Equity stakes in these companies have become so desirable, in fact, that one home seller in Sonoma County, California, offered a $500,000 discount to buyers who could pay in Anthropic shares.
你还需要确保选对投资公司,并买入足以产生影响的大额股份。如果超级智能学会快速自我改进,前沿实验室之间的竞争可能呈现赢家通吃的局面,而它们目前的相对位置周周都在变化。时机选择构成另一项挑战。前OpenAI研究员、对冲基金Situational Awareness创始人利奥波德·阿申布伦纳决定押注那些无论哪家实验室获胜都可能受益的公司。
You’ll also need to make sure you pick the right company in which to invest, and purchase a large enough stake for it to matter. If a superintelligence learns to improve itself rapidly, the race among the frontier labs might be winner-takes-all, and they currently jostle for position from week to week. Timing presents another challenge. Leopold Aschenbrenner, the former OpenAI researcher who founded the hedge fund Situational Awareness, decided to bet on companies that are likely to benefit no matter which lab wins.
他可能入场过猛、过早。今年早些时候,他的基金一度上涨逾400%,但随后在市场回调中,其公开股票投资组合迅速缩水逾三分之二,他被迫在一笔交易中抛售了大部分持仓。
He may have gone in too strong and too early. His fund was up more than 400 percent earlier this year, but then during a market dip, his public-equity portfolio quickly lost more than two-thirds of its value, and he was forced to sell the bulk of it in a single trade.
即使你选中了率先创造出超级智能AI的实验室,且是那少数暴富的幸运儿之一,你仍将面临政治风险。如果大量民众突然不得不面对终身贫困的前景,他们未必会为你的成功感到欣喜,也不会完全束手无策。只要民主制度存续,他们手中就握有选票。他们可能会向国会议员明确表示,绝不接受低于对AI暴利进行深度再分配的任何方案。
Even if you pick the lab that creates the first superintelligent AI, and you’re one of the lucky few who gets unimaginably rich, you’ll still be subject to political risk. If a lot of people suddenly find themselves reckoning with a lifetime of impoverishment, they might not be delighted by your success, and they won’t be entirely powerless. Provided that democracy survives, they’ll have the vote. They may make clear to their congressional representatives that they’ll accept nothing less than a profound redistribution of the AI windfall.
他们或许会通过一项法案,让《新政》看起来像里根经济学一样温和。(2020年AI治理中心的一份论文敦促AI公司预先承诺进行再分配,以避免这种命运。)该法案可能会对获胜实验室收取的所有AI收入征收高额税,甚至直接将其国有化。
They might pass a bill that makes the New Deal look like Reaganomics. (A 2020 paper by the Centre for the Governance of AI urges AI companies to pre-commit to redistribution to avoid this fate.) This bill might aggressively tax all AI revenue collected by the winning lab or nationalize it outright.
那么,真正糟糕的情景呢?比如人工智能失控,或被用于邪恶目的。如果自动化代理动摇了人类文明的支柱,这可能危及你的净资产以及其他一切。
And what about the really bad scenarios, in which AI goes rogue, or is used for evil purposes? If automated agents give the pillars of human civilization a good shaking, that could imperil your net worth, along with everything else.
本月早些时候,奥特曼表示,拥抱这项技术就意味着要接受“会有一些坏事发生”。桥水基金(Bridgewater Associates)首席投资官格雷格·詹森(Greg Jensen)曾说,未来几年内出现由人工智能引发的“重大金融事故”或“物理灾难”的风险“远高于任何人应当感到舒适的水平”。Anthropic 在其首次公开募股前的最新文件中警告称,此类事故可能造成的损害规模,单一家保险公司甚至可能整个保险行业都难以承担。
Earlier this month, Altman said that embracing this technology means accepting that “some bad things are going to happen.”Greg Jensen, the managing chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, has said that the risk of a “major financial incident run by AI” or “physical disaster” in just the next few years is “way higher than anybody should be comfortable with.”Anthropic’s recent filing in advance of its IPO warned that such an incident could cause harm on a scale that no single insurer, and potentially not even the entire insurance industry, could cover.
专家们早已警告,人工智能可能发起针对金融机构的网络攻击,例如扰乱银行余额,使所有账户记录都受到质疑。一些机构已实施备份系统,以避免此类大规模重置。银行可能会在每晚以标准化、加密的格式记录客户的账户数据,然后将其传输至隔离的归档库。它们还可能与一家“恢复”机构合作,以便在紧急情况下让存款人查看余额并进行取款。
Experts have long warned about the possibility of an AI-led cyberattack on financial institutions, perhaps one that scrambles bank balances, rendering all account records suspect. Some of these institutions have implemented backup systems to avoid a great reset of this kind. Banks may record their customers’ account data every night in a standardized, encrypted format, and then send it over to an air-gapped archive. They may also partner with a “restoration” institution that would allow depositors to see their balances and make withdrawals in case of an emergency.
但未来的人工智能代理也可能找到某种方式来破坏这一系统。震网病毒曾通过U盘跨越物理隔离,而且它是由人类黑客在十多年前设计的。除了保留纸质记录、把钱分散存放在多家银行和券商,并在家中藏一些应急现金——当然是小面额的——之外,面对这类攻击可能并没有真正令人满意的防范手段。黄金也可以是一种选择,而且有一些证据表明,硅谷人士正在大量购买黄金。但黄金难以储存,容易被盗,而且大多数人无法用黄金找零。
But future AI agents could find some way to compromise this system too. Stuxnet crossed an air gap by way of thumb drives, and it was designed by human hackers more than a decade ago. There may be no truly satisfying hedge against this kind of attack beyond keeping paper records, spreading money across many banks and brokerages, and stashing emergency cash—in small denominations, of course—at home. Gold could be an option, too, and there is some evidence that Silicon Valley types are buying lots of it. But gold is difficult to store and prone to being stolen, and most people can’t make change against it.
与一些人工智能知名人士警告我们的某些灾难相比,一场全球金融网络攻击要温和得多。阿莫代伊曾表示,有朝一日,超级智能可能会帮助一个生物恐怖分子设计出一种新的病原体,专门定制以引发大流行——也许是一种比新冠致命得多的病原体。军方使用的人工智能可能会与其他系统协同,挑起一场核交火。也可能出现某种我们目前还无法想象的其他断裂。
Compared with some of the catastrophes that AI luminaries warn us about, a global financial cyberattack would be quite mild. Amodei has said that a superintelligence could one day help a bioterrorist engineer a new pathogen, custom-made to trigger a pandemic—perhaps one that would be far more lethal than COVID. An AI used by the military could coordinate with others to gin up a nuclear exchange. There could be some other rupture that we cannot yet imagine.
许多人可能会在这些灾难中幸存下来,但文明不会照常延续。在一段时间内,世界可能会陷入一种更接近霍布斯式的状态,届时券商账户——以及正规经济的其他方面——都将成为遥远的记忆。
Many people would likely survive these catastrophes, but civilization wouldn’t carry on as usual. For a time, the world may descend into a more Hobbesian state, in which brokerage accounts—and other aspects of the formal economy—are distant memories.
几十年来,末日准备者一直在为这些更极端的可能性未雨绸缪。他们购置了带有菜园和可用水井的偏远地块,囤积了可在紧急关头用于交换的枪支和弹药。亿万富翁们也各自进行着高端的末日准备。一些人在新西兰购置了金库般的掩体。(奥尔特曼曾表示,他的紧急避难所位于大苏尔。)这些后备计划同样存在失效的环节。
For decades, preppers have been hedging against these more extreme possibilities. They’ve secured remote parcels of land with vegetable gardens and working wells. They’ve stockpiled guns and ammunition that can be traded in a pinch. Billionaires have done high-end prepping of their own. Some are acquiring vaultlike bunkers in New Zealand. (Altman has said that his emergency retreat is in Big Sur.) These backup plans have failure points, too.
前往掩体的交通可能很困难,这取决于通往机场的路上或空中情况会糟糕到什么程度。抵达时可能有不友好的当地人在等着你。即便你进入了掩体,你的武装安保人员也可能决定,未来其实应该属于他们,而不是你。一些研究人员提出,试图在养尊处优的隔离状态中熬过一场灾难或许是愚蠢的。他们说,生活在一个紧密团结、有韧性的人类社群中,可能才是最好的对冲。
Transportation to a bunker could be difficult, depending on how bad things get on the way to the airport or in the sky. Unfriendly locals may be waiting for you on arrival. Even if you get down into the bunker, your armed security may decide that, actually, the future should belong to them, not you. Some researchers have suggested that trying to wait out a catastrophe in pampered isolation may be foolish. They say that living in a close-knit, resilient human community may be the best hedge of all.
有一种极端情景是没人需要费心准备的。不幸的是,它也是最糟糕的一种:灭绝。你无法对冲一场彻底的末日浩劫,除非靠花钱买赎罪券。如果你认为AI将带来末日,那么把养老金花光可能是你能做的最理性的事。即便现在,也有人说服自己相信,既然AI会把我们全部杀死,他们就没有未来可以规划。机器智能研究所所长内特·苏亚雷斯告诉我的同事马泰奥·王,他已经停止为退休储蓄。
There is one extreme scenario that no one needs to bother prepping for. Unfortunately it’s the worst one: extinction. You can’t hedge against a total apocalypse, except by buying indulgences. If you think AI will usher in doomsday, spending down your nest egg might be the most rational thing you can do. Even now, there are people who have convinced themselves that because AI will kill us all, they have no future to plan for. Nate Soares, the president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, told my colleague Matteo Wong that he’s stopped saving for retirement.
“我只是不觉得这个世界还会继续存在,”他在去年说。但需要说明的是,这不是财务建议;以上内容全都不是,尤其最后那句更不是。
“I just don’t expect the world to be around,” he said last year. But to be clear, that’s not financial advice; none of the foregoing is, and least of all that.