巴勒斯坦人在加沙和约旦河西岸对以色列10月27日的选举抱有极低期待，担心无论结果如何都将面临更多战争、定居点扩张和暴力。
Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank expect little change from Israel’s Oct 27 election, fearing more war, settlement growth and violence whatever the result.
内塔尼亚胡阵营在85%选票统计完毕后领先，但未获明确多数，其下一届联合政府前景不明，可能陷入更多僵局。
Netanyahu’s bloc led after 85% of votes were counted, but without a clear majority, leaving his next coalition uncertain and open to more deadlock.
专家表示，由艾森科特领导的政府可能会缓和部分压力，但警告称“不会有变革性变化”，并可能面临来自定居者或强硬派对手的短期升级。
Experts said an Eisenkot-led government might soften some pressure, but warned of “nothing transformative” and possible short-term escalation from settlers or hardline rivals.
AI生成 汗尤尼斯，巴勒斯坦领土 - 在饱受战火蹂躏的加沙和被占领的约旦河西岸，许多巴勒斯坦人不太关注谁将赢得以色列大选，而更关心是否真的会有所改变。
AI generated KHAN YUNIS, Palestinian Territories - In war-ravaged Gaza and the occupied West Bank, many Palestinians were less focused on who would win Israel’s election than on whether anything would really change.
无论本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在极右翼盟友支持下继续掌权，还是中间派对手加迪·艾森科特胜出，鲜有人对10月27日的投票抱有多少希望。
Whether Benjamin Netanyahu clings to power with his far-right allies or centrist rival Gadi Eisenkot comes out on top, few see much reason for hope in the Oct 27 vote.
“我们担心这些选举可能会带来一个更糟糕的领导人，”加沙南部汗尤尼斯的流离失所居民胡达·侯利说。
“We fear these elections could bring an even worse leader,” said Huda al-Houli, a displaced resident of Khan Yunis in southern Gaza.
她表示，这种结果只会给巴勒斯坦领土带来“更多的毁灭和破坏”。
Such an outcome, she said, would only bring “more destruction and devastation” to the Palestinian territory.
尽管如此，侯利表示，她希望以色列社会能涌现出更多“人性的声音”，要求结束冲突，无论谁组建下一届政府。
Still, Houli said she hoped a more “human voice” would emerge in Israeli society and demand an end to the conflict, regardless of who forms the next government.
在约旦河西岸的拉马拉，67岁的艾哈迈德·阿瓦德同样持怀疑态度。
In Ramallah, in the West Bank, Ahmed Awad, 67, was equally sceptical.
“无论结果如何，即使政客们换了，我认为在巴以冲突政策上不会有任何根本性或戏剧性的转变，”他告诉法新社。
“Whatever the result, and even if the politicians change, I don’t think there will be any radical or dramatic shift in policies towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict,” he told AFP.
截至10月27日投票的85%选票统计完毕，内塔尼亚胡阵营保持领先但未获明确多数，以色列下一届政府前景充满不确定性。
With 85% of ballots counted from Oct 27’s vote, Netanyahu’s camp remained ahead but without a clear majority, leaving uncertainty over Israel’s next government.
这是哈马斯2023年10月7日袭击以来的首次选举，此前经历了多年的右翼和极右翼执政，期间爆发了加沙战争，约旦河西岸定居者暴力事件也在上升。
The first election since Hamas’s Oct 7, 2023 attack comes after years of right-wing and far-right rule marked by the war in Gaza and rising settler violence in the West Bank.
对于正在为政治生存而战的内塔尼亚胡而言，仍有几条路可走：重振与极右翼的联盟、组建更广泛的联合政府，或面临又一次政治僵局。
For Netanyahu, fighting for his political survival, several paths remain open: renewing his alliance with the far right, building a broader coalition or facing yet another political deadlock.
极右翼部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔已经发出信号，如果现有联合政府存续，他将争取国防部长职位，并推动驱逐加沙地带人口。更多的同类情况 并非所有人都已放弃希望。
Far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir has already signalled that, if the current coalition survives, he would seek the defence portfolio and push for the expulsion of Gaza’s population. More of the same Not everyone has given up hope.
拉马拉的阿卜杜拉·阿布·拉赫马（Abdallah Abu Rahma，54岁）说：“无论发生什么，肯定会比我们近年来经历的要好。”
“Whatever happens, it will surely be better than what we’ve lived through in recent years,” said Abdallah Abu Rahma, 54, from Ramallah.
但他补充道，如果内塔尼亚胡继续留任，“他组建的任何联合政府都将继续沿用同一条路径”。
But if Netanyahu remains in office, he added, “any coalition he forms, he will continue down the same path”.
欧洲对外关系委员会研究员贝丝·奥本海姆（Beth Oppenheim）表示，由前陆军参谋长艾森科特领导的政府，可以遏制亲定居点极右翼的影响力。
A government led by Eisenkot, a former army chief, could rein in the influence of the pro-settlement far right, said researcher Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
这也可能减轻对巴勒斯坦权力机构的压力，并在加沙地带援助和停火问题上采取更灵活的做法。但她警告不要期望过高。
It could also ease pressure on the Palestinian Authority and take a more flexible approach on aid and a ceasefire in Gaza. But she warned against expecting too much.
她说，不会有“任何变革性”的举措，当然也不会在巴勒斯坦建国或和平进程问题上出现重大转向，自10月7日以来，这些议题已基本从以色列政治辩论中消失。
There would be “nothing transformative”, she said, and certainly no major shift on Palestinian statehood or the peace process, issues that have largely disappeared from Israeli political debate since Oct 7.
奥本海姆补充道，内塔尼亚胡与极右翼伙伴重组联合政府，很可能意味着更多的同类情况，包括定居点扩张和定居者暴行享有豁免权。
A renewed Netanyahu coalition with far-right partners would likely mean more of the same, including settlement expansion and impunity for settler violence, Oppenheim added.
她说：“我认为我们对不同政府在政策上出现任何重大变化，都需要抱有相当低的期望。”
“I think we need to have quite low expectations when it comes to seeing any major changes in policy from a different government,” she said.
升级担忧 阿拉伯中心华盛顿分部巴以项目负责人优素福·穆奈耶（Yousef Munayyer）认为，即便内塔尼亚胡落败，短期内也可能让巴勒斯坦人处境更糟。他说：“巴勒斯坦人有充分理由感到担忧。”
Fears of escalation Even a Netanyahu defeat could leave Palestinians worse off in the short term, argued Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine-Israel programme at the Arab Centre Washington. “There is every reason for Palestinians to be concerned,” he said.
穆奈耶指出，艾森科特本人曾在以色列战时内阁任职，参与加沙攻势。
Eisenkot himself served in Israel’s wartime Cabinet during the Gaza offensive, Munayyer noted.
一个脆弱的替代联盟在内塔尼亚胡和右翼的持续攻击下，可能会试图通过在巴勒斯坦问题上采取更强硬立场，来证明自己足够强硬。
A fragile alternative coalition under constant attack from Netanyahu and the right could try to prove it was tough enough by taking a harder line on Palestinian issues.
他解释说，在约旦河西岸，如果极右翼失去权力，暴力可能会升级，定居者可能会针对新政府采取行动。
In the West Bank, violence could rise if the far right loses power, with settlers potentially acting out against a new government, he explained.
穆奈耶尔说：“重要的是要明白，约旦河西岸的大多数定居者暴力是结构性的。这与谁掌权无关。”
“It’s important to understand that most settler violence in the West Bank is structural. It’s not about the government in charge,” Munayyer said.
“定居者居住在包围巴勒斯坦人口的地方。巴勒斯坦人口容易受到武装定居者的侵害，而巴勒斯坦人绝大多数没有武器。”在加沙，阿德南·阿萨尔说他抱有的幻想很少。
“Settlers live in places that surround the Palestinian population. The Palestinian population is vulnerable to the settlers, who are armed, whereas the Palestinians overwhelmingly are not.”In Gaza, Adnan Al-Assar said he harboured few illusions.
他说：“内塔尼亚胡可能会赢。但无论发生什么，他们都遵循同一个针对巴勒斯坦人民的总体政策。” 法新社
“Netanyahu may win,” he said. “But whatever happens, they all follow the same overarching policy, directed against the Palestinian people.”AFP