日本央行普遍预计将在周五维持基准利率不变，同时表明潜在通胀终于达到了 2% 的目标，这一里程碑将强化进一步加息的理由。
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Friday while indicating that underlying inflation has finally reached its 2% target, a milestone that would strengthen the case for further rate hikes.
彭博社近期对日本央行观察人士的调查显示，所有受访者均预期，在本周为期两天的会议结束时，央行将维持政策利率不变，此前央行上个月将利率上调至 1.25%。
All BOJ watchers polled in a recent Bloomberg survey anticipate that the central bank’s policy rate will be left unchanged at the end of its two-day gathering this week, after the bank raised it to 1.25% last month.
周五的一个关键焦点将是日本央行是否会表示潜在通胀已大体达到 2% 目标，这将是自 2013 年设定该目标以来的首次 —— 这一结果似乎很有可能出现。由于借贷成本在日本仍相对较低且具有刺激性，这将强化进一步加息的理由。
A key focus on Friday will be whether the BOJ says underlying inflation has broadly reached its 2% target for the first time since the goal was set in 2013 — an outcome that appears likely. That would bolster the case for further hikes as borrowing costs remain relatively low and stimulative in Japan.
法国巴黎银行首席日本经济学家河野龙太郎表示：“日本央行很可能判断潜在通胀现已达到 2% 左右。日本央行可能认为有必要尽快将利率提升至中性水平，但上行风险尚不足以迫使其连续加息。” 日本央行的会议在美国联邦储备委员会隔夜维持政策设定不变之后召开，美联储的这一决定打压了美元，推动日元兑美元汇率于周四东京时间上午升至 157.84 左右。
“The BOJ is likely to judge that underlying inflation has now reached around 2%,” said Ryutaro Kono, chief Japan economist at BNP Paribas. “The BOJ probably sees a need to raise the rate toward neutral as soon as reasonably possible, but upside risks aren’t pressing enough to warrant back-to-back hikes.”
虽然日本央行对潜在通胀的确切水平一直相对模糊，但一系列指标多年来已显示日本通胀已扎根。今年 3 月，日本央行开始发布一套新的价格指标，这些指标在剔除主要为暂时性的因素后，能捕捉核心通胀走势。
The BOJ’s meeting comes after the US Federal Reserve held its policy settings steady overnight, a decision that weighed on the dollar, pushing the yen to around 157.84 per dollar Thursday morning in Tokyo. While the BOJ has been relatively vague about where exactly underlying inflation is, a host of indicators has shown for years that inflation in Japan has been taking root.
对潜在通胀的上调评估将为 12 月会议的再次加息奠定基础，接受调查的经济学家中有 80% 以上预期届时将采取行动。日本央行在 9 月第二次在三个月内调整基准利率，标志着 36 年来最快的加息步伐。
In March, the BOJ began publishing a new set of price gauges that capture core inflationary moves while stripping out factors that are mostly temporary. An upgraded assessment of underlying inflation would lay the groundwork for another hike at the December meeting, when more than 80% of surveyed economists expect action.
知情人士本月初透露，鉴于当前物价走势以及日本央行内部认为加息对经济的影响迄今有限的看法，日本央行可能会以大致相同的节奏继续加息。
The bank adjusted the benchmark rate in September for the second time in three months, marking the fastest pace of rate increases in 36 years.
植田和男越来越多地暗示，潜在通胀“非常接近”2%，似乎在为周五央行季度展望报告的变化做铺垫。本月初，他表示日本央行不会允许潜在通胀从当前水平大幅进一步上升。
The BOJ may continue raising rates at roughly the same pace given current price trends and a view at the bank that the impact of rate hikes on the economy so far has been limited, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg earlier this month. Ueda has increasingly indicated that underlying inflation is “very close” to 2%, appearing to prepare investors for a change in the bank’s quarterly outlook report Friday.
一旦确认潜在通胀已达标，关注焦点将转向利率需上调多远、货币政策才不再具有刺激性。日本央行估计中性利率处于1.1%至2.5%之间，同时强调难以精确确定。摩根大通证券和法国巴黎银行等机构预测，本轮周期的终端利率将达到2.5%。
Earlier this month, he said the BOJ wouldn’t allow underlying inflation to rise much further from current levels. Recognition that underlying inflation has reached the target would sharpen focus on how far rates need to rise before policy is no longer stimulative. The BOJ estimates that the neutral rate resides somewhere between 1.1% and 2.5%, while stressing that it’s difficult to pinpoint.
剔除生鲜食品的通胀率一直是日本央行的关键指标，该指标已连续四个财年（截至今年3月）超过央行目标，若央行最新预测成真，将连续六个财年超标。一些经济学家认为，央行在确认这一转变上过于谨慎，冒着落后于通胀曲线的风险。
JPMorgan Securities and BNP Paribas are among those forecasting a 2.5% terminal rate in the current cycle. Inflation excluding fresh food, a gauge that has been a key indicator for the BOJ, has exceeded the bank’s target for four straight fiscal years through March of this year, and if the bank’s latest forecasts prove accurate, will do so for six straight fiscal years.
“五六年时间，一年级小学生基本就上初中了。如果有人声称持续这一整个时期的通胀不是趋势，很难想象人们会接受这种说法，”日本央行前经济学家、现任损保研究所株式会社执行经济学家龟田诚策表示。
Some economists say the bank has been too cautious in recognizing the shift, risking falling behind the curve on inflation.
近期的经济数据以及明年工资谈判前的早期信号表明，通胀压力依然坚挺。上个月，日本央行的一项基础通胀指标跃升至三年高点3.2%。在经历了三年历史性的高工资增长后，日本最大的工会联合会计划在预计于明年3月达成协议的谈判中寻求更大幅度的加薪。
“In five or six years, a first-grader basically enters middle school. If someone claimed that inflation persisting through that entire period isn’t a trend, it’s hard to see people accepting that,” said Seisaku Kameda, a former BOJ economist and current executive economist at Sompo Institute Plus Inc. Recent economic data and early signals ahead of next year’s wage negotiations suggest inflationary pressures remain firm. Last month, a BOJ gauge of underlying inflation jumped to a three-year high of 3.2%.
“在明年年度工资谈判之前，劳工和商界领袖的早期表态表明，日本的工资增长可能会在2027年加速，”彭博经济研究的经济学家木村太郎表示。“这有可能加剧通胀，并增加了日本央行将基准利率上调至超出市场目前定价的约2%终端水平的风险。”日本央行九名董事会成员在上个月以7比2的投票结果中，对通胀前景的分歧显而易见，这尽管加息仍帮助削弱了日元。投资者将关注周五的投票，以寻找进一步加息势头的迹象。
After three years of historically high wage growth, Japan’s largest umbrella labor organization plans to seek even bigger pay increases in negotiations expected to culminate with a deal in March. “Early indications from labor and business leaders ahead of next year’s annual wage talks suggest Japan’s wage growth could accelerate in 2027,” said Taro Kimura, an economist at Bloomberg Economics. “That threatens to stoke inflation and raises the risk the BOJ will hike its benchmark rate beyond the roughly 2% terminal level currently priced in by markets.”Differences over the inflation outlook among the BOJ’s nine board members were evident in last month’s 7-2 vote, which helped weaken the yen despite the rate increase.
实现物价目标的这一里程碑将标志着始于2013年的一项运动的顶峰，当时日本央行启动了大规模货币宽松政策，目标是在大约两年内实现2%的通胀。然而，日本花了近十年时间，加上俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的全球通胀冲击，持续的价格上涨才回到日本。
Investors will watch Friday’s vote for signs of momentum toward further hikes. The milestone on the price goal would mark the culmination of a campaign that began in 2013, when the BOJ launched massive monetary easing with a goal of achieving 2% inflation in about two years.
日本央行于2024年3月结束了世界上最后的负利率及其收益率曲线控制计划，因为人们对基础通胀目标即将实现的信心增强。迄今为止，植田已加息六次，至少半个世纪以来单任日本央行行长中加息次数最多。
Instead, it took nearly a decade and a global inflation shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for sustained price increases to return to Japan. The BOJ ended the world’s last negative interest rate and its yield-curve-control program in March 2024 as confidence grew that the underlying inflation target was coming into reach.
在最近的一档播客节目中，曾在日本央行工作近四十年的前副行长中曾宏强调了在“失去的三十年”之后期待已久的经济转变。“失去的三十年”始于1990年代日本资产泡沫破裂，导致约200家金融机构倒闭。
Ueda has raised rates six times so far, the most by a single BOJ governor in at least half a century. In a recent podcast, Hiroshi Nakaso, a former BOJ deputy governor who spent nearly four decades at the bank, highlighted the long-awaited economic shift after the “three lost decades” that followed the bursting of Japan’s asset bubble in the 1990s that resulted in about 200 financial institutions going under.
“日本回来了，”中曾宏说。“通货紧缩终于成为过去，经济正转向通胀体制。”然而，达到目标并不意味着通胀取得了毫无瑕疵的成功。虽然物价上涨伴随着企业创纪录的利润、名义GDP和税收收入，但也加剧了生活成本担忧，尤其是在日本迅速老龄化的人口中。日本近30%的人口年龄在65岁或以上，约40%的老年家庭完全依靠养老金维持生计。
“Japan is back,” Nakaso said. “Deflation is finally behind us and the economy is shifting to an inflation regime.”Yet reaching the target doesn’t mean inflation has been an unqualified success. While rising prices have accompanied record corporate profits, nominal GDP and tax revenue, they have also intensified cost-of-living concerns, particularly among Japan’s rapidly aging population. Almost 30% of Japanese are 65 or older, and about 40% of elderly households rely entirely on pensions for income.
曾表示日本央行实现物价目标时他将开香槟庆祝的中曾宏，强调在日本央行达成目标后，政府需要制定强有力的增长战略。“其必要性丝毫未减，”中曾宏说。
Nakaso, who once said that he would open a bottle of champagne when the bank achieves its price target, stressed the need for a strong growth strategy from the government after the BOJ hits its target. “Its necessity has not diminished in the slightest,” said Nakaso.