
美联储周三投票决定维持基准利率不变,选择以耐心的态度继续对抗通胀,尽管越来越多的证据表明,价格压力比决策者此前希望的更为棘手。
The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to keep benchmark interest rates on hold, opting to take a patient approach in its fight against inflation despite mounting evidence that price pressures are proving more nettlesome than policymakers had hoped.
这一决定在广泛预料之中,联邦公开市场委员会将隔夜联邦基金利率维持在3.75%至4%的区间,自央行9月批准加息25个基点以来,利率一直处于该水平。
In a widely expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the overnight funds rate in a range between 3.75%-4%, where it has been since the central bank approved a quarter percentage point increase in September.
“通胀仍然高企,”会后声明表示。“更多信息的积累将有助于委员会确定适当的政策立场,以确保通胀及时回到委员会2%的目标。委员会将实现价格稳定。”两名投票者持异议——12名联邦公开市场委员会投票者中有两人对决定持异议:理事莉萨·库克和克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克,两人都希望委员会加息25个基点。
"Inflation remains elevated," the post-meeting statement said. "The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability." Two voters dissented Two of the 12 FOMC voters dissented from the decision – Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, both of whom wanted the committee to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.
库克一直处于一场持续争议的中心,总统唐纳德·特朗普试图因她在住房贷款申请中所提供信息的指控而将她免职。尽管最高法院阻止了总统的尝试,政府已重新启动这一行动,听证会定于11月初举行。
Cook has been at the center of a continuing controversy in which President Donald Trump has tried to remove her from office over allegations concerning information she provided on home loan applications. While the Supreme Court stopped the president's attempts, the administration has restarted the move, with a hearing scheduled for early November.
这是库克自2022年作为总统乔·拜登的提名人加入美联储以来首次投出异议票。
This was Cook's first dissent since joining the Fed in 2022 as an appointee of President Joe Biden.
达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根和明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里在上次委员会会议(7月)上都与哈马克一起投了反对票,两人都表示需要更高的利率。然而,周三他们加入了多数派。
Dallas President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari both joined Hammack in voting no the last time the committee held, in July, and both have expressed the need for higher rates. However, they fell in with the majority Wednesday.
中期选举一直笼罩着这一决定。关键的投票将于11月3日在全国范围内举行,国会控制权悬而未决。美联储官员认为政治独立是央行的基石,但一些观察人士推测,官员们不会希望在选举临近之际加息。
The midterm elections have lingered over the decision. Pivotal votes take place nationwide on Nov. 3, with control of Congress at stake. Fed officials consider political independence to be a cornerstone of the central bank, but some observers have speculated that officials won't want to raise rates this close to an election.
特朗普曾提名美联储主席凯文·沃什担任该职位,多年来一直与美联储不和。特朗普曾指责联邦基金利率应该大幅降低。
Trump, who nominated Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to the position, has been at odds with the Fed for years. Trump has charged that the funds rate should be much lower.
反对意见反映了委员会内部在需要以多大力度加息以对抗物价上涨的问题上存在根本性分歧。通胀率已连续五年多高于美联储2%的目标,而且自9月会议以来,物价上涨速度只是有所加快。
The dissents reflected underlying conflict on the committee over how aggressively it needs to raise rates to combat rising prices. Inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and the pace of price increases has only picked up since the September meeting.
不过,过去几周的声明反映出一种意愿,即在进一步收紧政策之前等待更多数据出炉。美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯都表示,当前的经济状况让政策制定者有时间为下一步行动进行评估。
Statements over the past several weeks, though, have reflected a desire to wait for additional data to come in before tightening policy further. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both said current economic conditions allow policymakers time to evaluate their next move.
声明将经济活动描述为“以强劲步伐扩张”,这似乎比9月份的“稳健”有所升级。除了删除了一句解释9月加息的话之外,声明没有其他实质性变化。
The statement characterized economic activity as "expanding at a strong pace," a seeming upgrade from "solid" in September. There were no other substantial changes to the statement other than the removal of a sentence that explained the September increase.
这一决定并不令人意外,因为根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的“美联储观察”工具,市场此前定价的加息概率不到10%。决定公布后,标普500指数守住了涨幅。
The decision came as little surprise as markets had been pricing in a less than 10% chance of a hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Following the decision, the S&P 500 held on to its gains.
然而,这引发了新的问题:政策制定者愿意等待多久才再次收紧政策。期货市场定价表明,在12月的下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议上再次加息的可能性很大,2027年或许还会再加息一两次。
However, it raises fresh questions about how long policymakers are willing to wait before tightening again. Futures market pricing indicates a strong possibility of another hike at the next FOMC meeting in December, and perhaps another increase or two in 2027.
另外,沃什在新闻发布会上公布了明年联邦公开市场委员会会议的变化,这可能会减少每年制定利率的会议次数。
Separately, Warsh unveiled at a news conference changes to the FOMC meetings next year that could reduce the number of rate-setting meetings each year.
“我们认为,FOMC一年开八次会是合适的,但2027年,一次会议将专门聚焦广义货币政策战略,既不预计对联邦基金利率进行投票,也不预计发布政策声明,”Warsh表示。“其余会议将是常规的FOMC政策制定会议,我预计2028年将有两次会议专门讨论战略,六次会议用于制定政策。”复杂的经济图景美联储面临着复杂的经济和政治图景。
"We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC, but in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated," Warsh said. "The rest will be regular FOMC policy setting meetings, and I expect that in 2028 we'll have two meetings dedicated discussions of strategy and six for setting policy." Complicated economic picture The Fed is up against a complicated economic and political picture.
按美联储偏好的通胀指标衡量,9月份的通胀率预计将高于3%,即使剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格也是如此。经济学家担心,通胀已超出能源领域并扩散开来,且伊朗战争的影响也在持续。
Inflation as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge is expected to be above 3% for September, even when excluding volatile food and energy prices. Economists are concerned that inflation has broadened beyond the energy sector and the impact from the Iran war.
与此同时,失业率一直保持低位,经济增长强劲。亚特兰大联储的GDPNow追踪器显示,第三季度年化增长率将达到3.4%,这将是一年来最强劲的增速。消费支出也保持稳健,与人工智能热潮相关的投资也帮助维持了美国经济引擎的运转。
At the same time, the unemployment rate has remained low and economic growth has been strong. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is pointing to 3.4% annualized growth in the third quarter, which would be the strongest in a year. Consumer spending also has been solid, and investment tied to the artificial intelligence boom has helped keep the U.S. economic engine running.
不过,这种组合加剧了关于美联储当前利率实际上对经济施加了多少限制的争论,以及如果物价数据没有改善,决策者是否需要采取更激进的行动。
The combination, though, has added to debate about how much restriction the Fed's current interest rate is actually exerting on the economy, and whether policymakers will need to move more aggressively if the price data doesn't improve.
尽管市场预计将有进一步加息,但Warsh一直避免就FOMC的意图提供所谓的前瞻性指引。6月份,他的同事们通过“点阵图”网格,暗示今年还可能再次加息。
While markets expect additional hikes, Warsh has avoided providing so-called forward guidance about the FOMC's intentions. In June, his fellow committee members, through the "dot plot" grid, indicated the likelihood of another increase this year.
“美联储正在采取观望态度,我认为考虑到当前所处的周期阶段,这样做很有道理,”布林莫尔信托投资策略主管、前劳工统计局分析师安德鲁·戴维斯表示。“经济正在放缓,但放缓与崩溃是两回事。维持利率不变,能让决策者有更多时间评估经济对9月加息以及近期长期借贷成本上升的反应。”
"The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach, and I think that makes sense given where we are in the cycle," said Andrew Davis, head of investment strategy at Bryn Mawr Trust and a former BLS analyst. "The economy is slowing, but slowing and breaking are two different things. Holding rates steady gives policymakers more time to assess how the economy is responding to September's hike and the recent rise in longer-term borrowing costs."