伦敦 —— 安迪·伯纳姆在100天前承诺终结40年的新自由主义，成为英国首相。他的首份预算案在头版宣告，他不会那样做。
LONDON — Andy Burnham became Britain’s prime minister 100 days ago on a pledge to end 40 years of neoliberalism. His first budget announced he wouldn’t do that on the front page.
周三这份150页的红皮书标题为“为当下留出喘息空间，为未来带来全新希望”，以真正的英国式谦逊承认，这只是通往更大承诺的垫脚石。
Wednesday’s 150-page red book was titled “breathing space for today, fresh hope for the future”, a confession, with true British modesty, that it was a stepping stone to bigger pledges downstream.
伯纳姆的首席财政大臣、财政大臣约翰·希利公布了98项变革，包括帮助大多数家庭应对能源账单，由于唐纳德·特朗普与伊朗的战争，能源账单预计将在今冬飙升，还有一项100亿英镑的国防援助包以支持乌克兰。
Burnham’s top finance minister, Chancellor John Healey, unveiled 98 changes, including help for most households’ energy bills, which are due to spike this winter because of Donald Trump’s war with Iran, and a £10 billion defense package to support Ukraine.
许多税收调整有限且技术性，包括将豆奶关税削减8%。希利的雄心受到全球油价飙升的制约，也受到其老板的一个政治选择的限制，即暂不大刀阔斧地改革。
Many of the tax tweaks were limited and technical, including an 8% cut to tariffs on soy milk. Healey’s ambition was reined in by surging global oil prices and a political choice by his boss not to blow the doors off yet.
伯纳姆在圣诞节前还有对摇摇欲坠的福利体系的审查、向地方下放权力以及“十年计划”。只有到那时，他才能为明年的支出审查算出具体数字。
Burnham has reviews on the creaking welfare system, devolving power to the regions and a “10-year plan” all coming before Christmas. Only then can he grind out the numbers for next year’s spending review.
工党议员达伦·琼斯曾在伯纳姆7月到任前在财政部任职，他称这是一份“稳中求进的预算案”，在意料之中。许多工党议员感到高兴，为各自选区的措施欢呼，并指向稍后更大的举措。行业游说团体能在其专业领域找到可抓的东西。
The Labour MP Darren Jones, who served in the Treasury until Burnham arrived in July, called it a “steady-as-she-goes budget” that was to be expected. Many Labour MPs were happy, cheering measures for their area and pointing toward a bigger bang later on. Industry lobby groups could grasp onto something in their area of expertise.
首相首席大臣达伦·琼斯抵达唐宁街，出席基尔·斯塔默于2026年7月15日在伦敦召开的最后一次内阁会议。 | 卡尔·考特/盖蒂图片社但鉴于英国经济增长乏力，其他人评价不高。保守党倾向的智库“社会正义中心”的乔·沙拉姆称之为“糊弄预算”。保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克发问：“就这？”对伯纳姆而言，或许最棘手的回应来自“主流派”，这个左翼竞选团体曾在今年助推他当选工党领袖。
Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, Darren Jones, arrives at Downing Street for Keir Starmer’s final cabinet meeting on July 15, 2026 in London. | Carl Court/Getty Images But with U.K. growth struggling, others were less generous. Joe Shalam of the Conservative-aligned Centre for Social Justice think tank called it the “fudge-it budget.”Tory leader Kemi Badenoch asked: “Is that it?”Perhaps the trickiest response for Burnham was from Mainstream, the left-wing campaign group that helped propel him to the Labour leadership this year.
“结束40年的新自由主义只能靠激进行动”，该团体临时委员会在一份声明中写道。《政客》梳理了周三预算案的另外五大看点。
“Ending 40 years of neoliberalism can only be delivered by radical action,” read a statement by the group’s interim council. POLITICO looks at five other takeaways from Wednesday’s budget.
1）我们处于“观望期” 财相的“大招”是征收一项备受瞩目的银行增税——但他令许多人意外地表示，该税仅征收15个月。其峰值年筹集额不足10亿英镑。
1) We’re in the holding pen The chancellor’s big bazooka was to slap a much-anticipated tax rise on banks — but he surprised many by saying it will last only 15 months. It will raise less than £1 billion in its peak year.
这并非希利周三推出的唯一临时性措施。他延长了现有的燃油税减免、家庭能源账单减税以及2英镑公交票价上限，但均仅延长至2027年。所有这些都将在他的下一份年度预算案前接受再次审视。
It wasn’t the only temporary measure Healey unveiled on Wednesday. He extended existing cuts to fuel duty, a tax cut on household energy bills and a £2 cap on bus fares, but only until 2027. They will all need to be reviewed again before his next annual budget.
同样，希利的一些支出计划在几年后便逐渐减少，暗示日后可能需要追加拨款。这甚至适用于伯纳姆最关心的领域。预算文件显示，自2027年4月起的两年内，用于终结露宿街头的支持资金将达11亿英镑，但随后三年仅2.7亿英镑。
Likewise, some of Healey’s spending plans thin out after a few years, which suggests they may need topping up later. This applies even to the areas closest to Burnham’s heart. Budget documents suggest support to end rough sleeping will total £1.1 billion in the two years from April 2027 but only £270 million in the three years after that.
人们于2024年5月29日在伦敦金融城的银行区穿行。 | Carl Court/Getty Images当然也有许多变化，例如在资本减免、房产所得税和储蓄税方面。白厅将不得不寻找更多的行政开支削减，而税务稽查员将追缴每年另外32亿英镑。但非党派经济智库财政研究所称，这一切是“拼凑”而成的“繁琐措施”，对促进增长作用甚微。
People pass through the Bank area of the City of London on May 29, 2024 in London. | Carl Court/Getty Images There were plenty of changes, of course, such as to writing-down allowances, property income taxes and tax on savings. Whitehall will have to find more administration cuts while tax inspectors hunt down another £3.2 billion a year. But the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a non-partisan economic think tank, called it all a “hodgepodge” of “fiddly measures” that would do little to affect growth.
许多更根本性的决定被推迟了。希利承诺到2035年将国内生产总值的3.5%用于国防开支，但只会在2027年某个时候的支出审查中详细说明如何筹资。福利制度的重大改革——其开支仍在飙升——将只有在工党资深人士斯蒂芬·蒂姆斯和艾伦·米尔本的两份报告于11月发布后才会决定。
Many of the more fundamental decisions were kicked down the road. Healey has committed to spending 3.5% of GDP on defense by 2035, but will only spell out how to fund it in a spending review at some point in 2027. Major reforms to the welfare system — spending on which is still rocketing — will only be decided after two reports by the Labour grandees Stephen Timms and Alan Milburn are published in November.
希利发布了一份“财政下放路线图”，勾勒出一条路径，到本世纪末将企业税收入的完全控制权移交给地区市长，但这也带有观望成分。
Healey published a “fiscal devolution roadmap” that spelled out a path to handing regional mayors full control of the business rates raised in their areas by the end of the decade, but this has an element of wait-and-see too.
希利为其谨慎的做法提供了说辞。“我决定提前预算，是为了给国家一点喘息空间，并在猜测面前提供稳定性和方向感，”他周三对下议院议员们说。“我们将继续通过首相的10年计划和支出审查，为英国规划那条方向。”这已不是去年还抱怨英国“被债券市场套牢”的伯纳姆了。2) 一切都很糟糕，所以怪白宫。伯纳姆和希利可以怪特朗普——但仅限于一定程度。
Healey had a narrative for his cautious approach. “I decided on an early budget to give the country a bit of breathing space and to provide stability and direction in the face of speculation,” he told MPs Wednesday. “We’ll continue to map out that direction for Britain through the prime minister’s 10-year plan and the spending review.”This is not the Burnham who complained Britain was “in hock to the bond markets” last year. 2) Everything is terrible, so blame the White House. Burnham and Healey can blame Trump — up to a point.
财政大臣表示，曾经面对英国的逆风现在已成为“全球经济风暴”，主要由美国与伊朗的冲突助长。“我们不想要这场战争，”希利对下议院议员们说。
The chancellor said the headwinds that once faced Britain are now “global economic storms,” fueled above all by the U.S. conflict with Iran. “We did not want this war,” Healey told MPs.
美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2026年10月28日在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地走下空军一号后，向媒体成员发表讲话。| Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images记者们周三花费时间翻阅独立机构预算责任办公室（OBR）发布的关于英国经济的一系列惨淡数据。英国2027年的预计增长率从1.6%下调至1%（尽管财政部官员坚称，到本世纪末人均GDP总体仍将上升）。
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media after disembarking from Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on October 28, 2026. | Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images Journalists spent Wednesday trawling through the usual gloomy parade of numbers about the U.K. economy produced by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. Britain’s projected growth in 2027 was cut from 1.6% to 1% (though Treasury officials insisted GDP per person will rise overall by the end of the decade).
希利留给自己的财政缓冲比前任雷切尔·里夫斯更小，他告诉下议院议员，这是为了“吸收伊朗战争的冲击”。他还将每年净增税额提高了70亿英镑，尽管这远低于里夫斯上一份预算案中的260亿英镑。
Healey chose to leave himself with a smaller fiscal buffer than his predecessor Rachel Reeves, telling MPs he had used it to “absorb the impact of the Iran war.”He also raised net taxes by £7 billion a year, though this was far less than the £26 billion in Reeves’ last budget.
但局势极不稳定，这些基于8月中旬市场能源价格的数字很可能已经过时。OBR的“严重冲击情景”预测油价将在2027年上半年达到每桶115美元左右的峰值。本周油价已触及这一水平。
But the situation is so volatile that these numbers, based on market energy prices in mid-August, are probably already out of date. The OBR’s “severe shock scenario” had oil prices peaking at around $115 a barrel in the first half of 2027. They already hit that level this week.
希利坚称，在当前形势下英国表现良好；他的部长们都指向国际货币基金组织（IMF）的预测，即到2029年英国的赤字将在七国集团（G7）中最低。
Healey insisted that Britain is doing well in the circumstances; his ministers all point to an International Monetary Fund prediction that the U.K.’s deficit will be the lowest in the G7 by 2029.
然而，反对党描绘了一幅国家前景愈发黯淡的图景。税收收入本已将升至历史新高；希利周三再次打破了这一纪录。（预计税收占GDP比重将达到38.6%。）英国的债务利息支出自2020年以来已近乎翻了两番。
Opposition parties, however, paint a picture of a nation where everything is just getting gloomier. The tax take was already on course to rise to a record high; Healey broke that record again on Wednesday. (It is now due to reach 38.6% of GDP.) Britain’s spending on debt interest has almost tripled since 2020.
3) 国防开支仍是一个棘手的大难题 希利曾于6月在前首相基尔·斯塔默手下担任国防大臣时辞职，以抗议军费开支不足——但现在他面临着关于自己规划的越来越多无法回避的质疑。
3) Defense spending is still a big, big headache Healey resigned as defense secretary under former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in June to protest the lack of military spending — but now faces mounting unanswered questions about his own plans.
希利周三在国防开支方面宣布了两项重大新举措。首先，他证实了威斯敏斯特的一个公开秘密：他计划到2030年将国防开支提高到国内生产总值（GDP）的3%——并以此为路径在2035年达到北约3.5%的目标——但重申如何筹资的细节只会在明年的支出审查中详细说明。
Healey did two big new things on defense spending on Wednesday. First, he confirmed an open secret in Westminster: he plans to reach 3% of GDP by 2030 — on a path to NATO’s 3.5% by 2035 — but repeated that the details of how he’ll pay for it will only be spelled out in next year’s spending review.
第二，更重要的是，他概述了填补斯塔默国防投资计划中每年18亿英镑缺口的方案——但仅提供了极少的细节。
Secondly and more significantly, he outlined his plan to plug a £1.8 billion-a-year gap in Starmer’s defense investment plan — but provided only scant details.
财政部表示，这笔资金将通过在未来几年将各白厅部门的资本预算各削减1%来筹措。然而，这些部门尚未算出具体削减什么；那是留待另一天解决的问题。这些问题将在未来一年困扰希利。
The Treasury said it will be paid for by shaving 1% off each Whitehall department’s capital budget in the coming years. However, those departments have not yet worked out what they will cut; that is a problem for another day. These questions will dog Healey for the next year.
至少有一人感到欣喜：弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基。乌克兰总统表示，财政大臣推出的一揽子价值100亿英镑的经济和军事援助基辅方案“让我度过了美好的一天”。该方案的一部分需要部长们特别批准，因为公务员警告无法保证这笔钱能物有所值。
At least one person was delighted: Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The Ukrainian president said the chancellor “made my day” with a £10 billion package of economic and military support to Kyiv. Part of the package needed special sign-off by ministers because civil servants warned they could not guarantee it would provide value for money.
4) 也有让工党议员高兴的内容 希利公布的大部分内容似乎都旨在巩固民调和本党议员中的“伯纳姆反弹效应”。
4) There was something to make Labour MPs happy Much of what Healey did unveil appeared to be aimed at preserving the “Burnham bounce” in the polls and with his own MPs.
财政大臣称这是一份“为英国劳动人民服务的预算”，财政部分析称其具有再分配效应，给最贫困家庭带来最大提振（尽管仅使其收入增加了0.6%）。
The chancellor called it a “budget for the working people of Britain” and Treasury analysis says it was redistributive, handing the biggest boost to the poorest households (albeit only raising their incomes by 0.6%).
一名女子在雪中行进，这是2022年12月10日，柴郡今年冬天的第一场大雪，地点在北维奇。| Christopher Furlong/Getty Images 这一切的核心是希利最接近“变戏法”的招数——今年冬天向居住在特定房产价值以下住宅的人发放每户100英镑现金补贴。一名工党议员热情表示，该补贴的标准（财政部官员称将覆盖88%的最贫困家庭）“绝对绝妙”，因为它能同时覆盖在职家庭和领取福利的家庭。
A woman makes her way through a snow flurry, the first significant snow fall in Cheshire this Winter on December 10, 2022 in Northwich. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images Central to this was Healey’s closest thing to a “rabbit out of the hat” — a £100-per-household cash payment to people living in homes below a certain value this winter. One Labour MP enthused that the criteria for the payment (which Treasury officials say will capture 88% of the poorest households) was “absolutely brilliant” because it will capture working households and those on benefits at the same time.
还有另外15亿英镑用于社会住房和经济适用房，一项关于新建人工智能数据中心的“公约”，以及对自雇人士里程报销标准的调整。伯纳姆一直以基层政治家自居；这是一份基层方案。
There was another £1.5 billion for social and affordable housing, a “covenant” to govern new AI data centers and changes to mileage rates for self-employed workers. Burnham has prided himself on being a grassroots politician; it was a grassroots package.
选民会有多少注意，则是另一个问题。财政研究所警告称，这组“喘息空间”措施仍然“相对较小”。可能会被一月份年度能源账单的上涨所抵消——关于涨幅的预测最近从276英镑到469英镑不等。
How much voters will notice is another question. The IFS warned the package of “breathing space” measures was still “relatively small.”It could be swallowed by a rise in annual energy bills in January — predictions of which have recently ranged from £276 to £469.
预算责任办公室警告称，过去十年左右，人均实际家庭可支配收入“几乎没有增长”，并预测“2027年不会有实际收入增长”，尽管伯纳姆和希利努力提供帮助。
The OBR warned there has been “virtually no growth” in real household disposable income per person over the last decade or so, and predicted “no real earnings growth in 2027” despite Burnham and Healey’s efforts to help.
5）议员们停不下来地议论选举，伯纳姆只需在2029年中期前举行选举，并一直试图平息提前选举的议论——但每位首相都会这样做，直到他们不再这样做为止。
5) MPs won’t stop chattering about an election Burnham only has to call an election by mid-2029 and keeps trying to snuff out talk of going earlier — but every prime minister does this until they don’t.
他的议员们周三正在研究预算，以判断它是让提前大选更可能还是更不可能。可以公平地说，他们意见不一。
His MPs were studying the budget Wednesday to work out if it makes an early general election more or less likely. It’s fair to say they couldn’t agree.
一方面，这份由临时措施组成的谨慎预算可能暗示，伯纳姆——他需要自己的授权来对选举制度或英国与欧盟的关系进行更激进的改变——正在等待国家的支持。
On the one hand, this cautious budget of temporary measures might suggest Burnham — who needs his own mandate for more radical changes to the electoral system or Britain’s relationship with the EU — is holding out for the country’s backing.
也有人会说，谨慎的过渡性预算，远非你准备向选民兜售自己时会采取的引人注目的做法。明年经济增长预计将放缓；伯纳姆需要时间来扭转经济，并证明他能带来改变。
Others would say a cautious stepping-stone budget is hardly the eye-catching approach you would take if you were about to sell yourself to voters. Growth is set to be slow next year; Burnham needs time to turn the economy round and show he can change things.
伯纳姆周三对记者说：“我不记得自己做过多少次了，但是的，我可以排除在未来12个月内举行大选的可能性。”不过，猜测仍将继续。
Burnham told journalists on Wednesday: “I don’t know how many times I’ve done this now, but yes, I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months.”
埃丝特·韦伯、埃米利奥·卡萨利基奥和萨姆·布莱威特对此报道有贡献。
The speculation will continue anyway. Esther Webber, Emilio Casalicchio and Sam Blewett contributed reporting.