
约翰·希利在其首份预算案中的目标,是稍稍缓解英国家庭的压力,同时避免惊吓市场,财政大臣似乎刚刚勉强做到了这一点。
John Healey’s aim in his first budget was to ease a little pressure on British households while avoiding spooking the markets, the chancellor of the exchequer appears to have just about pulled it off.
一项对选民友好的举措是,为大多数家庭退还 100 英镑(约合 133 美元)能源费用,资金来源是理论上暂时性的银行增税。摩根大通等机构理所当然地会对此抱怨,但债券交易员似乎并不太担忧。周三,作为英国借贷成本风向标的 10 年期英国国债收益率略有下降。
A voter-friendly refund of £100 ($133) in energy costs for most homes will be paid for by a theoretically temporary increase in bank taxes. The likes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. are duty bound to moan about that, but bond traders didn’t seem too troubled. Yields on 10-year Gilts, a proxy for UK borrowing costs, were down a bit on Wednesday.
尽管如此,大量小规模措施——无论多么受欢迎、多么精准——作用终究有限。我们不得不继续等待首相安迪·伯纳姆关于英国的更宏大蓝图的细节:他承诺推翻长达四十年的新自由主义、并重塑国家机器的雄心究竟将何去何从?
Still, a welter of small-scale measures — no matter how popular and cleverly targeted — only get you so far. We’re left waiting for the details on Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s grander designs for Britain: Whither his promise to upend four decades of neoliberalism and his ambition to rewire the state?
事实上,这是一份延续性极强的预算案,甚至让人觉得可能是由希利常被诟病的前任蕾切尔·里夫斯提交的。虽然她和时任首相基尔·斯塔默在政治上表现拙劣,但她的经济遗产本可以糟糕得多。
Indeed, this was so much of a continuity budget that it might have been delivered by Healey’s oft-derided predecessor Rachel Reeves. While she and the then PM, Keir Starmer, were hapless politically, her economic legacy could have been a lot worse.
今年不同的是,工党拥有一位懂得舆论引导和预期管理的首相和财政大臣。希利避免重蹈里夫斯在 2025 年预算案前那番煎熬的铺垫:她曾任由外界猜测她将违背竞选宣言承诺、上调所得税。随后,当金融市场已习惯了本应是增加英国财政收入最简单的方式时,她却失了胆。
What’s different this year is that Labour has a prime minister and chancellor who understand optics and managing expectations. Healey avoided repeating Reeve’s torturous lead-up to the 2025 budget, where she let speculation run that she would break a manifesto pledge by raising income tax. And then, as financial markets got used to what would have been the simplest way to raise UK revenue, she lost her nerve.
反对党领袖凯米·巴德诺克曾把她批得体无完肤。里夫斯从此一蹶不振,而巴德诺克开始将保守党从悬崖边拉回。面对希利,这位令人钦佩、出拳凌厉的巴德诺克未能造成任何实质性打击。希利和伯纳姆是更狡猾、更老练的对手。
Kemi Badenoch, leader of the opposition, made mincemeat of her. Reeves never recovered from the experience, and Badenoch started to haul the Tories back from the brink. Against Healey, the admirably punchy Badenoch failed to land any serious blows. Healey and Burnham are cannier, more seasoned adversaries.
他们在将国防开支如何筹措、福利如何削减等棘手财政大问题推迟到春季支出审查时,同样表现出了稳健的步伐。这种做法当然不可能永远奏效,但如果能借此赢得政治喘息空间,为何不利用呢?唐宁街10号和11号联手驾驭民调与债券市场,迄今成效显著。
There’s a sure-footedness, too, in how they’re kicking the big fiscal problems — how to pay for defense and cut welfare — down the road to a spring spending review. They can’t play this game forever, of course, but why not secure political breathing space if you can? No. 10 and No. 11’s joint management of the opinion polls and bond markets has been effective, so far.
若认为伯纳姆在实用主义祭坛上献祭了他那略带理想主义色彩、旨在改变普通英国人生活的愿景,那将是一个错误。在埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband)这位立场更偏左、资历更浅的竞争者之上任命稳重低调的希利,是伯纳姆试图化解经济与英国公债收益率这两大工党软肋的举措。
And it would be a mistake to think that Burnham is sacrificing at the altar of pragmatism his somewhat misty-eyed vision of transforming the lives of ordinary Britons. Appointing the steady, low-key Healey ahead of the greener and more left-wing Ed Miliband was Burnham’s attempt to neutralize the economy and Gilt yields as serious weaknesses for Labour.
若要善意揣测,这或许正是他所谓“政府不应受制于债券交易员”的含义。在希利手中,财相似乎能够降低事态温度,即便在财政部算账专家不得不因唐纳德·特朗普毫无意义的对伊朗战争而反复重估经济损失之际。希利因军费开支问题辞去斯塔默政府国防大臣职位,对首相而言是致命打击,恰恰因为他是一位不搞戏剧化、忠诚可靠的盟友。
If we’re being generous, perhaps this was what he meant when saying a government shouldn’t be in hock to bond traders. In Healey, he has a chancellor who seems able to lower the temperature, even at a time when Treasury bean counters are constantly having to reassess the economic damage of Donald Trump’s pointless war on Iran. When Healey quit as Starmer’s defense secretary in protest over military spending, it was a mortal blow to the PM precisely because he’s such a drama-free loyalist.
伯纳姆将押注这些特质能为他提供掩护,让他得以推行更激进的政策、管控党内左派,而不至于惊吓市场。但对这位看似财政现实主义的希利,以及所有希望英国繁荣昌盛的人而言,更大的问题是:这位阳光开朗、亲民的伯纳姆,会否给他的财相提供掩护,去应对英国令人窒息的福利账单?令人欣慰的是,除了少数顽固分子,工党议员们正变得更加现实,认识到削减福利的必要性,前提是配合让民众重返职场的支持措施。
Burnham will wager that these characteristics give him cover to pursue more radical policies, and manage the left of his party, without freaking out the markets. But the bigger question, both for the seemingly fiscal realist Healey and anyone who wants the UK to thrive, is whether the sunny man-of-the-people Burnham will give his chancellor the cover to tackle Britain’s crippling welfare bill. Hearteningly, apart from a few diehards, Labour lawmakers are becoming more realistic about the need for cuts so long as they come with support for getting people back into work.
伯纳姆和希利在政治上的确关系密切,他们每周都在11号公寓楼上面的楼里一起享用咖喱。两人都出身中产阶级家庭,在九十年代末托尼·布莱尔领导的工党执政时期进入政坛,随后在剑桥大学获得了学位。但首相健谈的性格和喜欢多言、爱分享的习惯,与财政大臣谨慎寡言、工作一丝不苟的形象形成了鲜明对比。
Burnham and Healey are certainly close, sharing a weekly curry in the flat above No. 11, where the chancellor lives. Both hail from lower-middle-class families and won places at Cambridge before coming of age politically in Tony Blair’s New Labour era in the late ‘90s. But the PM’s garrulous personality and tendency to overshare is in stark contrast to the careful chancellor, who is unfailingly polite and exacting to work for.
像伯纳姆一样,希利在政治上也难以捉摸,英国的希望是他们会拥有足够的灵活性来应对本国的长期问题——即便他们的第一个预算只是触及问题的边缘。虽然希利被广泛归为“软左派”,但很难想象一个真正的左翼分子会在自己的预算演讲中宣称自己有一个曾在军队担任预备役的儿子。
Like Burnham, Healey is tricky to pin down politically, and the hope for the UK is that will give them the flexibility to address its chronic problems, even if their first budget merely nibbles at the edges. While Healey has been pegged as broadly on the “soft left,” it’s hard to imagine a true lefty boasting as he did in his budget speech of having a son who had served as an army reservist.
军事问题如今在英国政府乃至大多数西方国家都显得格外突出。风险在于,下周中期选举后受挫败感影响的美国总统可能会重新点燃与伊朗的冲突,再次推高能源成本,使希利和伯纳姆的经济规划变得更加复杂棘手。此外,特朗普对普京的纵容也是英国等国必须尽快找到资金进行快速重整军备的原因。
The military question looms large over the British government today, as it does over most Western nations. The risk is that a US president chastened by midterm defeat next week will reignite the conflict in Iran, again forcing up the cost of energy and making Healey and Burnham’s economic planning ever more fraught. Then there’s Trump's emboldening of Vladimir Putin, the reason why the UK and others must find the money to rearm rapidly.
伯纳姆或希利在控制一个桀骜不驯的白宫方面能做的并不多。而在他们所能掌控的领域,他们似乎正在把很多政治上的事情做得不错。不过,他们仍然需要将更多责任从福利转移到国防上,并让国家拥有足以在日益敌对的国际环境中生存的经济动力。面对这一现实,他们才刚刚开始着手处理。
There’s not much Burnham or Healey can do to control a wayward White House. And in the realm they do control, they seem to be getting much of the politics right. Nonetheless, they do still need to shift more of the onus from welfare to defense, and to giving the nation an economy dynamic enough to survive in an increasingly hostile world. Dealing with that reality is a job they’ve barely started.