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希利寻求以低调预算引导英国度过“艰难时刻”Healey seeks to steer UK through 'difficult moment' with low-key budget

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伦敦,10月28日 —— 英国财政大臣约翰·希利预计将于周三公布一份审慎的预算方案,试图避免给首相安迪·伯纳姆领导的新政府带来更多债券市场压力。

LONDON, Oct 28 - British finance minister John Healey is set to announce a cautious budget plan on Wednesday as he tries to avoid piling more bond market pressure on the new government of Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

银行、博彩公司以及亚马逊和拼多多等在线市场预计将面临更高税收。这将有助于为面临高额能源账单的低收入家庭提供支持,并冻结司机的燃油税。

Banks, gambling firms and online marketplaces such as Amazon and Temu are expected to be hit with higher taxes. That would help to pay for support for poorer households facing high energy bills and to freeze fuel duty for drivers.

希利——一位前工会官员,曾在1990年代担任财政部初级大臣——表示,他希望让英国从美国主导的对伊朗战争推高通胀的影响中获得“一点喘息空间”。

Healey – a former trade union official and a junior Treasury minister in the 1990s – says he wants to give Britain "a bit of breathing space" from the impact of the US-led war on Iran that is pushing up inflation.

他在一份声明中说:“这份预算关乎度过这个艰难时刻。但它也关乎让英国走上一条未来之路、一条更好的未来之路。”下放权力、国防与债务他上任后的首份预算——预计将在议会于下午12点30分(格林尼治标准时间1230)后公布——将详细说明政府计划如何赋予地区市长对税收收入的更多控制权,这是伯纳姆推动权力下放的一部分。

"This budget is about getting through this difficult moment. But it's also about putting Britain on a future path, a better future path," he said in a statement. DEVOLUTION, DEFENCE AND DEBT His first budget – due to be announced in parliament just after 12:30 p.m. (1230 GMT) – will detail how the government plans to give regional mayors more control over tax revenues, part of Burnham's devolution push.

此外,到2030年代初,将有超过200亿英镑的额外支持资金注入国有金融机构,以刺激对人工智能、国防和绿色能源的投资。

Separately, more than £20 billion in extra support will go to state finance institutions to spur investment in artificial intelligence, defence and green energy by the early 2030s.

伯纳姆于7月入主唐宁街时承诺将带来“过去40年来最大的变革”,包括国家在经济中发挥更大作用。

On entering Downing Street in July, Burnham promised "the biggest changes in the last 40 years", including a bigger role for the state in the economy.

但由于全球包括英国在内的政府借贷成本飙升,希利的选择余地有限;投资者仍记忆犹新前首相利兹·特拉斯2022年的“迷你预算”及其未提供资金来源的减税措施引发的债券市场崩盘。周二,英国5年期政府债券的利息成本创下2008年以来新高。

But Healey's options are limited by the surge in borrowing costs for governments around the world including Britain, where investors remember the 2022 "mini-budget" of former Prime Minister Liz Truss and the ensuing bond market meltdown triggered by its unfunded tax cuts. On Tuesday, Britain paid the highest interest on a 5-year government bond since 2008.

在前任财政大臣蕾切尔·里夫斯的两份预算案大幅增税增支之后,周三被视为英国经济“稳中求进”的时刻,该经济迄今已抵御住伊朗战争引发的能源价格冲击。

After big tax and spending increases in the two budgets of the previous finance minister Rachel Reeves, Wednesday is being framed as a "steady as she goes" moment for Britain's economy, which has so far withstood the Iran war energy price shock.

接受路透社调查的债券交易商预计,与4月的预测相比,本财年额外债务发行将少于100亿英镑,但他们预见到明年的融资需求将被上调超过250亿英镑。

Bond dealers polled by Reuters expect less than £10 billion in extra debt issuance this financial year, compared with April's forecasts, though they see financing needs for next year being revised up by more than £25 billion.

为了缓解里夫斯对雇主造成的巨大增税冲击,希利表示将为企业减少文书工作,每年为其节省8亿英镑。

In an attempt to ease some of Reeves' big tax hit on employers, Healey has said he would reduce paperwork for businesses to save them £800 million a year.

更大的政策变化——包括如何修正通胀对公共支出的冲击——可能不得不等到伯纳姆承诺将于今年晚些时候发布的10年规划,以及2027年的广泛支出审查。

Bigger policy changes – including how to fix the inflation hit to public spending – are likely to have to wait for a 10-year plan that Burnham has said he will announce later this year and a broad spending review in 2027.

但希利面临压力,必须现在就说出他打算如何为国防开支增加投入——这一问题导致他在6月辞去国防大臣职务,这一举动加速了基尔·斯塔默首相的辞职。

But Healey is under pressure to say now how he intends to pay more for defence – an issue that caused him to quit as defence minister in June in a move that hastened Keir Starmer's resignation as prime minister.

英国快速增长的福利支出改革可能带来的节省,或许能在今年晚些时候提供一点回旋余地。

Possible savings from reforms to Britain's fast-growing welfare spending could offer a bit of latitude later this year.

但希利最大的希望是伊朗战争结束,这将降低政府为3万亿英镑公共债务支付利息的账单。即使在战争爆发前,这项支出已注定将吞噬超过10%的公共支出。他表示将坚持政府的财政目标,这对维持债券市场信心至关重要。

But Healey's biggest hope is for an end to the Iran war, which would lower the government's bill for servicing £3 trillion of public debt. That was already on course to gobble up more than 10% of public spending before the war began. He has said he would stick to the government's fiscal targets, key for maintaining the confidence of the bond market.

英国预算预测机构预计将于周三表示,满足更具挑战性目标的空间已从3月的240亿英镑缩减至150亿英镑。

Britain's budget forecasters are expected to say on Wednesday that the margin for meeting the more challenging target has fallen to £15 billion, from £24 billion in March.

财政部已宣布一系列低成本政策,试图表明其仍能帮助选民,包括降低部分进口商品(如小黄瓜和橘子酱)的关税。

The Treasury has announced a string of low-cost policies to try to show it can still help voters, including tariff cuts on some imported goods including gherkins and marmalade.

投资平台AJ Bell个人理财主管莎拉·科尔斯表示,有针对性的税收变动可能有助于护理人员和父母。“对其他人来说,这将是杯水车薪。承受压力的家庭将期盼获得更多支持,”科尔斯说。

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at investment platform AJ Bell, said targeted tax changes could help carers and parents. "For others they will be a drop in the ocean. Hard-pressed households will be hoping for more support," Coles said.

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