
安迪·伯纳姆感到心情愉快是可以理解的。英国首相在第二个百日任期伊始,民调支持率遥遥领先,经济增长表现也好于预期。财政大臣约翰·希利提交了一份预算案,既没有激怒债券市场的“义警”,也没有惹恼工党后座议员。而且,还有一条足以让任何英格兰人振奋的消息:法国的处境要糟糕得多,公共财政萎靡不振,街头还被骚乱者占据。
You could forgive Andy Burnham for feeling chirpy. Britain’s prime minister begins his second hundred days with a healthy lead in the polls and a better-than-expected run of economic growth. His chancellor, John Healey, presented a budget that succeeded in riling neither bond vigilantes nor Labour backbenchers. And, in news to stir any English heart, France is doing much worse, as its public finances languish and its streets are occupied by rioters.
英国上下弥漫着选举的热潮。因此,迎合选民的需要或许可以解释,为何在一份基本缺乏实质内容的预算案中,希利还是设法腾出了几十亿英镑,为五分之四的家庭发放100英镑(133美元)的补贴,据称是为了抵消能源账单。财政大臣话音刚落下不久,大批英国人纷纷查询自己的家庭是否符合领取条件,导致一个政府网站崩溃。
In Britain election fever is in the air. So the need to please voters could explain why, in a budget that was mostly empty of substance, Mr Healey did find a few billion pounds to finance a £100 ($133) payment to four in five households, supposedly to offset energy bills. Shortly after the chancellor stopped speaking, the legion of Britons checking whether their house qualifies for the money crashed a government website.
阅读我们 专题的其余内容。伯纳姆坚称他已排除至少12个月内举行选举的可能——但他当然会这么说,不是吗?令人不安的是,这份预算案恰恰体现了他执政方式的不足。这些变化从最狭隘的意义上说是庞大的,因为它们包含98项经过成本核算的政策措施,轻松超过近期任何一份预算案。在简化数据中心审批方面有一点好消息。
Read the rest of our cover package Mr Burnham insists he has ruled out an election for at least 12 months—but he would say that, wouldn’t he? What is troubling is that this budget epitomised the inadequacy of his approach to government. The changes are vast in the narrowest sense that they include 98 costed policy measures, comfortably more than any other recent budget. There was a smidgen of good news on streamlining data-centre approvals.
此外,地方将从当地居民和企业缴纳的税收中获得更多资金,从而激励它们刺激增长。希利将能源政策的重点放在廉价电力上,并且没有屈服于新任财政大臣改写财政规则的长期诱惑。
Also, places will be funded more from taxes paid by local residents and businesses, giving them an incentive to stimulate growth. Mr Healey focused energy policy on cheap power, and did not succumb to the perennial temptation of new chancellors to rewrite the fiscal rules.
然而,在几乎所有重要的意义上,这份预算案的变化都是微不足道的。涉及的金额微不足道,而且几乎没有哪项措施触及英国深层次的经济问题。相反,它呈现的是一阵零敲碎打的调整,只会加剧困扰税制的扭曲激励。
And yet in almost every sense that matters, the budget’s changes are trifling. The sums involved were trivial and few of its measures grapple with Britain’s deep economic problems. Instead it presents a spasm of tweaks that will worsen the perverse incentives which plague the tax code.
首相比基尔·斯塔默更难捉摸。的确,他比前任更精明,能够抛弃那些政治上受欢迎的好处——比如每人100英镑的补贴和因降低食品关税而更便宜的超市腌黄瓜。但每当伯纳姆先生大胆——比如他提议通过限制养老金、为社会护理提供资金以及恢复英国与欧盟的关系——他就会把艰难的决定推迟到下一次选举之后。
The prime minister is even more difficult to pin down than Sir Keir Starmer. True, he is cannier than his predecessor about throwing out politically popular goodies, like the £100 payments and cheaper supermarket gherkins, thanks to lower grocery tariffs. But whenever Mr Burnham is bold—as he proposes to be by limiting pensions, funding social care and reviving Britain’s relations with the European Union—he puts off difficult decisions until after the next election.
这种治理方式很快就会让人感到厌倦。原定于2027年的支出审查将十分艰难。为了为国防提供资金并防止大幅削减,财政大臣希利称,英国财政研究所预计需要筹集约300亿元。财政大臣周三表示:“我们从强势的立场出发”,但并未完全令人信服。卫生、养老金和福利支出将继续上升,给英国在低成本下维持完整福利国家的努力带来压力,甚至可能逼近临界点。悬而未决的还有人工智能将如何重塑社会和经济的问题。
That approach to governing will soon wear thin. The spending review, due in 2027, will be tough. To pay for defence and prevent harsh cuts, Mr Healey will have to raise around £30bn, says the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank. “We start from a position of strength,” the chancellor said on Wednesday, not entirely convincingly. Health, pension and welfare spending will keep marching up, straining Britain’s effort to fund a full-freight welfare state on the cheap, perhaps to breaking-point. Hovering above this is the question of how artificial intelligence will reshape society and the economy.
伯纳姆先生的宏大构想难以应对这些挑战。他是一位怀旧的政治家,在未来快速前进之际谈论结束“40年的新自由主义”。这令人惋惜,因为还有大量工作要做——而且在许多方面,伯纳姆先生与《经济学人》中的新自由主义者可以达成共识。权力下放就是其中之一,伯纳姆先生在这方面已经取得了良好开端。英国的确过度集中。没有理由让城市必须向财政部申请交通项目的资金,而不是自行筹集。
Mr Burnham’s big ideas are no match for those challenges. He is a nostalgic politician, talking of an end to “40 years of neo-liberalism” at a time when the future is rushing onward. That is a pity, since there is plenty to do—and plenty where Mr Burnham and the neoliberals at The Economist could see eye-to-eye. Devolution is one, and there Mr Burnham has made a good start. Britain really is damagingly over-centralised. There is no reason cities must ask the Treasury to finance transport projects, rather than raising the money themselves.
另一种做法是恢复基尔爵士偶尔表现出的亲增长供给侧改革的兴趣。工党在选举时的宣言中主张,更快的增长是摆脱英国财政困境的出路。然而,这场去监管的革命几乎尚未启动。现在新建的住房数量比工党上台前还要少。预算责任办公室——一个监管机构——最新的预测显示,政府将在本届议会期间错失150万套住房的建设目标,差额高达50万套。住房大臣安吉拉·雷纳最近甚至把这一目标称为“拉伸目标”。
Another would be reviving Sir Keir’s occasional interest in pro-growth supply-side reform. Labour was elected on a manifesto which argued that faster growth was the way out of Britain’s fiscal woes. Yet that deregulatory revolution has barely begun. Fewer homes are built now than when before Labour was elected. The latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, a watchdog, suggest that the government will miss its target of 1.5m homes built over the course of this parliament by a full half million. Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, has lately taken to calling it a “stretch target”.
英国的福利体系把太多年轻人从工作岗位上拉下来,转而领取健康福利,伯纳姆先生已承诺明年立法解决——但在预算案中他对此毫无作为。首相也是长期批评印花税的人,印花税是对房地产交易征收的税费,可能是英国最破坏增长的税种。和前任工党政府一样,他迄今回避了清理英国税法中扭曲和陷阱的必要。现在行动仍不算晚。
Britain’s welfare system has pulled too many young people out of work and onto ill-health benefits, something Mr Burnham has promised to legislate on next year—but which he did nothing about in the budget. The prime minister is also a long-time critic of stamp duty, a levy on property transactions that is probably Britain’s most growth-destroying tax. Like the previous Labour government, he has so far dodged the need to clean up the perversities and traps in Britain’s tax code. It is not too late to act.
必须认真准备英国应对人工智能可能带来的变革。数据中心的宣布是第一步。但英国应改革版权法,以便在本土训练人工智能模型。伯纳姆先生和希利先生对如何确保英国抓住人工智能带来的生产率提升有什么看法?或者对如何防止人工智能通过制造大量虚假、由聊天机器人生成的垃圾信息,堵塞法院、仲裁庭和官方咨询程序,从而耗尽英国国家的治理能力,有何对策?
Serious work is needed to ready Britain for the changes AI may bring. The data-centre announcements were a first step. But Britain should reform its copyright laws, so that AI models can be trained locally. And what do Mr Burnham and Mr Healey have to say about ensuring Britain captures the productivity gains of AI? Or on how to stop AI from exhausting the capacity of the British state by jamming up the courts, tribunals and official consultations with spurious, chatbot-generated slop?
总之,任务繁重且亟需尽快落实。首相应当不理会关于需要新授权的言论。英国是议会民主制,伯纳姆先生拥有议会的信任。与其继续受制于 上大幅基尔形象的宣言,他有三年的时间可以大胆行事,随心所欲。
In short, there is plenty to do and an urgent need to be getting on with it. The prime minister should ignore talk of the need for a new mandate. Britain is a parliamentary democracy and Mr Burnham has its confidence. Rather than remaining beholden to a manifesto that had a large picture of Sir Keir on the front, he has three years to be as bold as he chooses.
对伯纳姆或英国而言,无法奏效的做法将是:首相把时间耗费在端出更多缺乏政策内涵的乐观论调上。在政治上,选民很可能对一个仅仅原地踏步的政府失去耐心——即便它偶尔抛给他们一点小恩小惠。在经济上,英国正步履维艰,增长率勉强高于1%。若要开始解决其诸多问题,它需要增长。
What will not succeed for Mr Burnham, or for Britain, would be for the prime minister to pass the time dishing up more policy-lite optimism. Politically, voters are likely to lose patience with a government that merely treads water—even if it does throw them the occasional bung. Economically, Britain is limping along with growth rates barely above 1%. If it is to begin to solve its many problems, it needs growth.
伯纳姆没有理由为选举而选举。正如基尔爵士所表明的,授权和稳固的多数并不能替代实际的执政议程。但如果伯纳姆无法就如何利用未来几年提出更好的愿景,他就应当宣布结束并诉诸国民。
Mr Burnham has no reason to call an election for its own sake. As Sir Keir showed, a mandate and a solid majority are no substitutes for an actual governing agenda. But if Mr Burnham cannot come up with a better vision of how to use the next few years, he should call time and go to the country.