美国正为一种情景做准备：在电网和其他供应链遭遇任何大规模中断的情况下，其军事基地可能在没有外部支持的情况下运行90天。这项名为“堡垒”（FORTRESS）的计划，在美伊更广泛战争的前景下出台，引发不安也在情理之中。该计划在英国和日本敦促家庭储备必需品仅几天后浮出水面，更是加剧了担忧。然而，这些国家均未表示冲突，更不用说第三次世界大战，迫在眉睫。
The US is preparing for a scenario in which its military bases could run for 90 days without external support in the face of any massive disruptions to power grids and other supply chains. The initiative, called FORTRESS, has understandably created a flutter, coming amid the prospect of a wider US-Iran war. That the plan surfaced just days after the UK and Japan urged households to stock up on essentials has only added to the concerns. None of the countries, however, said a conflict, let alone a third World War, is imminent.
尽管如此，这种巧合仍助长了社交媒体上关于“噩梦情景”和“末日”倒计时的猜测。在本报道中，我们将穿透喧嚣，解读“堡垒”计划。我们还将解释，为何此类应急准备不应自动被解读为重大冲突的预警。为此次报道，我们征询了地缘政治专家和前军事官员的意见。绝大多数人一致认为，针对最坏情景的军事准备本身并非恐慌的理由。
Still, the overlap has fuelled social media theories of a "nightmare scenario" and a "doomsday" countdown. In our report, we will cut through the noise and make sense of the 'FORTRESS' plan. Also, we will explain why such contingency preparations should not automatically be read as a warning of a major conflict. For the report, we examined the views of geopolitical experts and former military officials. A majority of them were unanimous in their assessment that military preparedness for worst-case scenarios is not, in itself, a reason to panic.
他们指出，FORTRESS计划背后可能有两个原因：网络攻击威胁日益增长，以及人工智能迅猛发展。在深入探讨之前，先来看看该计划包含的内容。什么是美国“堡垒”计划？其目标是确保，如果电网失效、供应链崩溃、基本民用服务中断，美国军事基地仍能至少运行90天。目前，民用电网支持着从通信、后勤到武器制造的一切，为美国军队提供保障。
They pointed to two possible reasons behind the FORTRESS plan - the growing threat of cyberattacks and the rapid advance of AI. Before we proceed further, here's a glance at what the initiative entails. WHAT IS THE US FORTRESS PLAN? It aims to ensure that US military bases continue to operate for at least 90 days if power grids fail, supply chains collapse, and essential civilian services are disrupted. Presently, civilian power grids support everything, from communications and logistics to weapons manufacturing, for the US military.
通过“堡垒”计划，美国希望摆脱这种依赖。为实现这一目标，该计划包括将依赖转向便携式核反应堆、大型电池储能系统和微电网。这一要求不仅限于保障电力和燃料。
Through FORTRESS, the US wants to do away with that dependence. To achieve that, the plan entails shifting dependence to portable nuclear reactors, large battery storage systems and microgrids. The requirement goes beyond securing electricity and fuel.
“堡垒”计划最早由福克斯新闻报道，该计划还要求建立弹药、关键矿产、电子产品、备件和医疗物资的战略储备。五角大楼还计划建立关键军事物资的战略储备，并准备让民用工厂在危机期间生产国防装备。理解“堡垒”计划从本质上讲，“堡垒”计划背后的一个关键担忧是军队对民用电网的依赖。五角大楼发肖恩·帕内尔强调了其重要性。“电力即战力。没有电力，你就会失去通信、供水、后勤、装配线，以及基本的军事指挥结构，”帕内尔说。
The FORTRESS initiative, first reported by Fox News, also calls for strategic reserves of munitions, critical minerals, electronics, spare parts, and medical supplies. The Pentagon is also planning to build strategic reserves of critical military supplies and prepare civilian factories to manufacture defence equipment during a crisis.MAKING SENSE OF THE FORTRESS INITIATIVEEssentially, behind the FORTRESS initiative, a key concern is the military's reliance on civilian power grids. Its importance was underscored by Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell. "Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, water, logistics, assembly lines and just basic military command structures," Parnell said.
地缘政治专家、前美国海军海豹突击队队员马特·布拉肯在一档播客节目中表示，现代冲突不再需要向对手发射导弹。布拉肯说，对手只需摧毁其电网，就能使一个国家陷入动荡。
Geopolitical expert Matt Bracken, a former US Navy SEAL, said in a podcast that modern conflict no longer requires firing a missile at a rival. Bracken said an adversary could destabilise a country simply by taking out its power grids."
“电网就是触手可及的软目标。你不需要向芝加哥投放核弹。如果你切断芝加哥的电力，芝加哥本质上就会‘自我毁灭’，因为民众在几天内就会彻底失控，”布拉肯说。
The power grids are just low-hanging fruit. You don't need to drop a nuke on Chicago. If you cut off Chicago's power, Chicago will nuke itself in essence, because the people will absolutely go out of their minds within days," Bracken said."
“如果朝鲜向旧金山发射导弹，我们会确切知道它来自哪里、该打击谁。但如果旧金山断电，可能会留下虚假线索……所以我认为军方可能正在为此做准备，”他进一步说道。
If North Korea shot a missile at San Francisco, we'd know exactly where it came from and whom to hit. But if San Francisco's power goes down, a false trail could be laid... So I think that the military might be preparing for that," he further said.
为了佐证他的观点，布拉肯引用了2013年不明枪手袭击硅谷电力变电站一事，该事件导致1.3万用户断电。通信线路也被切断，损失达1540万美元。耗时近一个月才使变电站恢复运行。
To buttress his point, Bracken cited the 2013 attack on the Silicon Valley power substation by unknown gunmen, which knocked off electricity to 13,000 customers. Communications lines were also cut, with the damage worth $15.4 million. It took nearly a month to bring the substation back to life.US journalist Bruce Snyder called the FORTRESS plan a "necessary step" in national defence, rather than a sign of an impending "doomsday" scenario."
美国记者布鲁斯·斯奈德称“堡垒”计划是国家防御的“必要步骤”，而非迫在眉睫的“末日”场景的信号。“想想我们今天所处的世界。
Think about the world we are living in today.
“网络攻击是非常现实的威胁，敌对行为体有能力针对我们的基础设施发动攻击，随着人工智能的快速发展，我们还必须考虑这些强大系统被武器化或失控的潜在危险，”他在推文中写道。斯奈德表示，这些应急情况是加强军事准备的理由，而非引发公众恐慌的原因。
Cyberattacks are a very real threat, hostile actors have the ability to target our infrastructure, and with the rapid advancement of AI, we also have to consider the potential dangers of these powerful systems being weaponised or going rogue," he tweeted. Such contingencies, Snyder said, were a reason for strengthening military preparedness, not for public alarm.- Ends