末日时钟上次调整是在今年1月，自那以来，它并未进一步逼近预示全球灾难的刻度。但2026年全年，媒体头条却朝着那个方向移动，暗示午夜正在临近。
The Doomsday Clock, last adjusted in January, has not since moved any closer to forecasting global catastrophe. But media headlines over the course of 2026 have moved in that direction and are suggestive that midnight is drawing nearer.
包括Anthropic、OpenAI和xAI在内的硅谷公司警告称，人工智能——被特朗普总统的行政命令改称为“超级智能”——如果不受约束，可能导致人类灭绝。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊认为这一风险为25%；埃隆·马斯克则认为为20%。
Silicon Valley companies, including Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI, are warning that artificial intelligence — renamed “super intelligence” by President Trump’s executive order — could lead to human extinction if left unchecked. Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, pegs that risk at 25 percent; Elon Musk at 20 percent.
就连五角大楼也进入了末日模式。9月下旬，国防部长皮特·赫格塞思宣布了“美国堡垒”计划，其关键要素之一是确保美国主要军事基地在民用电网、供应链和关键基础设施遭到破坏或被摧毁的情况下，仍能继续运作90天或更长时间。
Even the Pentagon is in doomsday mode. In late September, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced Fortress America, a key element of which is to ensure that major U.S. military bases can continue operating for 90 days or more in the event that civilian power grids, supply chains, and critical infrastructure are disrupted or destroyed.
该计划包括建造微型核反应堆以及保护脆弱网络。五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔以正在进行的乌克兰战争为例警告说：“电力如今就是战斗力。没有电，你就会失去通信、装配线，乃至基本的指挥结构。”他还说，我们不能“依赖标准的民用市政基础设施来维持我们的国防”。文职政府也在保持警惕。上周，英国启动了“做好准备”运动，敦促公民储备72小时的食物、水、现金、药品和其他必需品。
The undertaking includes building micro nuclear reactors and securing vulnerable networks. Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, pointing to the ongoing war in Ukraine, warned that “Power is combat now. Without electricity, you lose communications, assembly lines, and just basic command structures.”He added that we cannot “rely on standard civilian municipal infrastructure to run our national defense.”Civilian governments are also on guard. Last week, the United Kingdom launched its “Be Ready” campaign, urging citizens to stockpile 72 hours of food, water, cash, medicine, and other essentials.
俄罗斯对欧洲的混合战争是因素之一。另一个是伊朗尚未结束的战争。还有一个是对网络攻击增加的担忧——包括过去七个月德黑兰对美国水处理设施的攻击——以及人工智能被越来越多地用于发动这些攻击。
Russia’s hybrid war against Europe is one factor. Another is the unfinished war in Iran. Another is concern over increased cyber-attacks — including Tehran’s attacks against U.S. water treatment facilities over the last seven months — and the expanding use of AI to wage them.
伦敦并非个例。爱尔兰于8月推出了“做好应急准备”倡议。荷兰本月早些时候警告民众要“提前谋划”。法国本周提醒本国公民关注其2025年的一项运动，该运动旨在推动民众准备一个72小时生存包。日本将于11月2日新设一个灾害管理厅。
London is not alone. Ireland issued a “Be Emergency Ready” initiative in August. The Netherlands warned its populace to “Think Ahead” earlier this month. France reminded its citizens this week about its 2025 campaign to prepare a 72-hour survival kit. Japan is introducing a new Disaster Management Agency on November 2.
就连太空也不能被视为安全之地。本月早些时候，据美国国务院副国务卿托马斯·迪南诺称，一颗俄罗斯军用卫星“表现出威胁性行为，故意机动至危险地接近一颗商业卫星的位置，此类行为与在轨武器操作相符”。
Even space cannot be considered safe. Earlier this month, according to Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno, a Russian military satellite was “exhibiting threatening behavior by intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite, behaviors consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.”
针对俄罗斯和中国日益增多的、旨在“扰乱和削弱美国天基能力”的行动，美国太空作战部长道格拉斯·希斯上将宣布，“守护者们操作在轨武器，能够保护联合部队免受天基攻击”。星球大战已经降临。太空如今不再仅仅关乎监视与指挥控制，而是关乎搜寻并摧毁。
In response to growing Russian and Chinese operations to “disrupt and degrade U.S. space-enabled capabilities,” Chief of Space Operations Gen. Douglas Schiess announced that “guardians operate on-orbit weapons that can defend the joint force against space-enabled attacks.”The star wars are upon us. Space is now no longer just about surveillance and command and control, but rather seek and destroy.
周二，美国国防情报局在其最新版《太空安全面临的挑战》报告中提醒我们这一现实。报告警告称，俄罗斯“正在研发一种旨在搭载核武器的卫星，尽管其有义务遵守1967年《外层空间条约》，该条约禁止将任何载有核武器或任何其他类型大规模杀伤性武器的物体送入环绕地球的轨道”。然而，尽管这些威胁真实存在，我们也应小心，不要让一种由仍属遥远的危险构成的混合现实，掩盖了我们眼前所面临危险的现实。
On Tuesday, the Defense Intelligence Agency reminded us of this reality in its latest edition of its “Challenges to Security in Space.”Russia, it warns, “is developing a satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon despite its obligation to comply with the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits the placement of any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction into orbit around Earth.”Yet, as real as these threats are, we should be careful to not let a hybrid reality of still-distant dangers obscure the reality of the immediate perils facing us.
俄罗斯——以及弗拉基米尔·普京在乌克兰发动的非法战争——可以说是那些同样具有生存威胁的危险之首。如果允许普京获胜，或者迫使乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基及其将领投降，末日将通过另一条路径降临。欧洲整体都理解这一威胁，这就是为什么英国皇家海军四艘“前卫”级战略核潜艇中有三艘异常同时出海执行巡逻任务。
Russia — and Vladimir Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine — are chief among those dangers that arguably equally existential. Doomsday arrives by a different path if Putin is allowed to win or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals are forced to capitulate. Europe as a whole understands this threat, which is why three out of the Royal Navy’s four Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines are unusually on patrol at the same time.
英国的潜艇携带“三叉戟”II D5型导弹，该导弹设计用于携带和投送核弹头。
The United Kingdom’s submarines carry Trident II D5 missiles that are designed to carry and deliver nuclear warheads.
伦敦与其欧洲盟友一样，面对俄罗斯针对北约成员国的混合战争，正在向克里姆林宫发出信号：它们不会在军事和经济上停止支持乌克兰，也不会袖手旁观，任由史蒂夫·威特科夫或贾里德·库什纳代表特朗普总统试图与俄罗斯达成商业交易，或终止针对普京所谓“小金库”的制裁。该基金名为俄罗斯直接投资基金，由普京的首席对美谈判特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫掌管。
德米特里耶夫是与威特科夫和库什纳进行讨论的核心人物，旨在以俄罗斯的财富为交换条件出卖乌克兰——或者在我们看来，是为了普京许诺却永远不会兑现的终极“愚人金”。
London, like its European allies, is signaling to the Kremlin in the face of Russia’s hybrid warfare against NATO member-states, that they will not stop militarily and economically supporting Ukraine, or stand idly by while Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner, acting on behalf of President Trump, attempt to cut business deals with Russia or end sanctions against Putin’s so-called “slush fund.”That fund, known as the Russian Direct Investment Fund, is run by Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s chief negotiating envoy to the U.S. Dmitriev is at the heart of discussions with Witkoff and Kushner to essentially sell out Ukraine in exchange for Russian riches — or, in our view, for the ultimate fool’s gold that Putin will promise but never deliver.
特朗普长期抨击欧洲通过购买俄罗斯能源为俄罗斯对其发动的战争买单。他在2025年联合国大会演讲中批评北约盟友称：“它们在为针对自己的战争提供资金。谁他妈听说过这种事？”然而现在，随着特朗普的柴油交易和阿拉斯加石油交易的潜在报道，白宫成了那个旨在为普京对西方的战争提供资金的一方。正如他曾指责欧洲人那样，特朗普现在正付钱让我们更快走向末日。
Trump has long railed against Europe for paying for Russia’s war against it by purchasing Russian energy. During an address to the United Nations in 2025, he criticized NATO allies saying, “They’re funding the war against themselves. Who the hell ever heard of that?”Yet now, alongside Trump’s diesel deal and reports of a potential Alaskan oil deal, the White House is the one aiming to fund Putin’s war against the West. Just as he once accused the Europeans, Trump is now paying to get us to doomsday faster.
本周末时钟将拨回一小时。特朗普最好也把“末日时钟”拨回一小时。
Clocks get set back this weekend. Trump would do well to set the Doomsday Clock back an hour as well.
马克·托思撰写关于国家安全和外交政策的文章。乔纳森·斯威特上校（退役）曾担任军事情报官员30年，并于2012年至2014年领导美国欧洲司令部情报接触部。他们是INTREP360及Substack平台上INTREP360情报报告的联合创始人。
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. They are the co-founders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.