数月来，伊朗的盟友用导弹和无人机猛烈打击沙特阿拉伯。他们破坏了沙特最重要的输油管道，并在利雅得机场造成至少17人死亡，该机场至今仍基本处于停运状态。因此，当沙特国防大臣哈立德·本·萨勒曼于10月26日飞往德黑兰进行一场旨在“鼓励对话”的访问时，不少人感到意外。这位沙特王储的弟弟甚至面带笑容地与伊朗最高安全官员穆赫辛·雷扎伊合影留念。
FOR months Iran’s allies have battered Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones. They have damaged its most important oil pipeline and killed at least 17 people at Riyadh’s airport, which remains largely out of service. It raised a few eyebrows, then, when Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi defence minister, flew to Tehran on October 26th for a visit meant to “encourage dialogue”. Grinning, the brother of the Saudi crown prince even posed for photos with Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top security official.
这次会面令人意外；就连沙特官方媒体似乎也措手不及。双方都急忙争夺对此事的解释权。伊朗官员将其视为自身实力的展示：一位沙特高级王室成员像恳求者一样前来。一名强硬派议员称，这个“无助”的王国不得不“乞求”与胡塞武装进行调解，胡塞武装是伊朗支持的也门民兵组织，造成了大部分破坏。
The meeting was a surprise; even Saudi state media seemed unprepared. Both sides scrambled to spin it. Iranian officials saw a demonstration of their strength: a top Saudi royal arriving like a supplicant. One hardline MP said a “helpless” kingdom had to “beg” for mediation with the Houthis, the Iran-backed militia in Yemen that has done much of the damage.
不过，哈立德亲王并非独自前往。陪同他抵达德黑兰的还有巴基斯坦陆军参谋长和土耳其情报部门负责人。这两个国家都是“麦加条约”的成员国，该共同防御协议于今年8月在沙特阿拉伯签署。沙特方面将此次峰会描绘为一种威慑展示，即三个穆斯林大国联合向孤立无援的伊朗发出警告。
Prince Khalid did not travel alone, though. He was joined in Tehran by the Pakistani army chief and the head of Turkish intelligence. Both countries are fellow members of the Mecca pact, a mutual-defence agreement signed in Saudi Arabia in August. The Saudis cast the summit as a show of deterrence, in which three big Muslim powers jointly delivered a warning to an Iran that stood alone.
尽管场面热闹，此次峰会似乎收效甚微。沙特提出了两个紧迫关切。其一是胡塞武装。然而，伊朗几乎没有动力去约束他们。事实上，在哈立德亲王访问之后，利雅得遭受了更多导弹袭击。
For all the drama, the summit seemed to achieve little. The Saudis raised two immediate concerns. One is the Houthis. Iran has little incentive to rein them in, though. Indeed, there were more missile attacks on Riyadh after Prince Khalid’s visit.
其二是美国与伊朗之间重新开战的威胁。唐纳德·特朗普已警告海湾国家，他正准备在下周中期选举后发动新一轮打击。美国正在向该地区派遣军舰、防空炮组及其他装备。第三艘航空母舰预计将于11月抵达。
The other is the threat of renewed war between America and Iran. Donald Trump has warned Gulf states that he is preparing another round of strikes after next week’s midterm elections. America is sending warships, air-defence batteries and other equipment to the region. A third aircraft-carrier is due to arrive in November.
世界许多国家正竭力阻止这一局面。卡塔尔和巴基斯坦的代表团本月已多次访问德黑兰，这两个国家此前曾斡旋达成过一项停止战争的协议。欧洲外交官们正忙着打电话。就连弗拉基米尔·普京似乎也参与其中。他本周在莫斯科与伊朗总统和卡塔尔埃米尔举行了会谈。
Much of the world is frantically trying to prevent this. Delegations from Qatar and Pakistan, which negotiated an earlier deal to halt the war, have made several visits to Tehran this month. European diplomats are working the phones. Even Vladimir Putin seems to be getting in on the act. He held talks in Moscow this week with Iran’s president and Qatar’s emir.
然而，这一连串外交活动并未产生一项伊朗和美国都能接受的协议。前者坚持达成一项以霍尔木兹海峡为核心的狭窄协议。如果美国结束对伊朗港口的封锁、解除制裁并做出其他经济让步，该政权已承诺在一周内重新开放这条水道。海湾国家的外交官们正在就时间表讨价还价：也许伊朗会同意四天，而不是七天。
Yet this flurry of diplomacy has not produced a deal that both Iran and America will accept. The former insists on a narrow agreement centred on the Strait of Hormuz. If America ends its blockade of Iranian ports, lifts sanctions and makes other economic concessions, the regime has pledged to reopen the waterway within a week. Gulf diplomats are haggling over the timetable: perhaps Iran would agree to four days, rather than seven.
这忽略了一个更大的问题。特朗普对这样的协议不感兴趣，该协议本质上意味着回到他6月签署的那份短命谅解备忘录。总统希望伊朗立即在其核计划上做出让步。到目前为止，伊朗并不愿意；在德黑兰举行的四方会谈中，伊朗甚至拒绝讨论核问题。
That misses a bigger problem. Mr Trump is uninterested in such a deal, which would essentially be a return to the short-lived memorandum of understanding he signed in June. The president wants Iran to make immediate concessions on its nuclear programme. So far, Iran is unwilling; it refused even to discuss the nuclear issue during the four-party talks in Tehran.
该地区的外交官称，沙特阿拉伯向伊朗递出了胡萝卜加大棒。如果伊朗做出让步，使与美国达成协议成为可能，沙特及其邻国愿意讨论一项更广泛的地区安全条约。如果伊朗拒绝，并恢复对海湾国家的攻击，麦加条约国家将准备予以回应。
Diplomats in the region say Saudi Arabia offered Iran a carrot and a stick. If it makes concessions that enable a deal with America, the kingdom and its neighbours are willing to discuss a broader regional-security pact. If Iran refuses, and resumes attacks on Gulf states, the Mecca-pact countries will be ready to respond.
风险在于，伊朗认为这两者都不可信。它怀疑沙特阿拉伯是否认同其对地区安全的看法，其中包括将美军赶出海湾。至于大棒，沙特阿拉伯本已在艰难击退胡塞武装，而其新盟友也不愿加入进攻性打击。
The risk is that Iran saw neither as credible. It doubts that Saudi Arabia shares its view of regional security, which includes booting American troops from the Gulf. As for the stick, the Saudis are already struggling to beat back the Houthis, and its new allies are reluctant to join offensive strikes.
在依赖美国数十年之后，海湾国家如今正亲自参与化解一场地区危机。这是一项值得欢迎的努力——但就目前而言，战争的威胁依然笼罩。
After decades of relying on America, Gulf states are now engaged in trying to defuse a regional crisis themselves. It is a welcome effort—but for now, the threat of war still looms.