欧洲央行周四警告称，能源冲击的规模不断扩大、持续时间不断延长，可能会推高整个欧元区的通胀并抑制经济增长。
The European Central Bank warned on Thursday that the growing scale and duration of the energy shock are likely to push up inflation and dampen economic growth across the eurozone.
欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在法兰克福与副行长鲍里斯·武伊契奇共同出席新闻发布会时表示，决策者决定维持关键利率不变，同时随时准备应对加剧的经济不确定性。
Speaking at a news conference in Frankfurt alongside Vice-President Boris Vujcic, ECB President Christine Lagarde said policymakers decided to keep key interest rates unchanged while remaining ready to respond to elevated economic uncertainty.
拉加德说：“能源价格持续上涨，对通胀前景构成上行风险，对增长前景构成下行风险。”
"Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook," Lagarde said.
她补充说：“能源冲击的幅度和持续时间增加，以及对间接效应和第二轮效应的影响，可能会推高通胀并压低增长。”
"The increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth," she added.
拉加德指出，由于柴油和汽油价格触及新高，能源成本跃升18.9%，这个单一货币联盟9月的整体通胀率从8月的3.2%攀升至3.8%。
Headline inflation in the single currency bloc climbed to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, driven by an 18.9% jump in energy costs as diesel and gasoline prices touched new peaks, Lagarde noted.
剔除能源后的通胀率从2.1%小幅升至2.3%，食品通胀率从1.1%升至1.3%，服务通胀率达到3.2%，而商品通胀率则略微回落至1.1%。
Inflation excluding energy edged up to 2.3% from 2.1%, food inflation rose to 1.3% from 1.1% and services inflation reached 3.2%, while goods inflation eased slightly to 1.1%.
拉加德表示，能源价格已超出欧洲央行工作人员9月预测的基线路径，这可能会使整体通胀在未来几个季度远高于央行2%的目标。
Lagarde said energy prices have exceeded the baseline path projected by ECB staff in September, which will likely keep headline inflation well above the bank's 2% target over the coming quarters.
工资压力依然温和，第二季度人均薪酬增长3.3%，而2027年前九个月的谈判工资增长率预计平均为2.6%。
Wage pressures remain moderate, with compensation per employee rising 3.3% in the second quarter, while negotiated wage growth is projected to average 2.6% in the first nine months of 2027.
尽管受到能源拖累，最新数据显示，在服务业复苏、人工智能相关商业投资以及政府在国防和基础设施方面支出的支撑下，欧元区经济第三季度继续扩张。拉加德表示，8月失业率维持在6.4%，而生产率已逐步改善。
Despite the energy drag, incoming data shows the eurozone economy continued to expand in the third quarter, supported by a recovery in services, artificial intelligence-related business investment and government spending on defense and infrastructure. The unemployment rate held at 6.4% in August, while productivity has gradually improved, Lagarde said.
然而，经济增长面临的风险仍偏向下行，主要原因是中东冲突以及俄罗斯与乌克兰之间持续的战争。
However, risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside, primarily due to the Middle East conflict and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
拉加德警告称：“能源供应的持续中断可能导致能源价格进一步上涨，且上涨持续时间超出当前预期。”她补充说，融资条件收紧和贸易紧张局势再度升温可能进一步削弱投资和出口。
"Continued disruption of energy supplies could cause energy prices to rise further and for longer than currently expected," Lagarde warned, adding that tighter financing conditions and renewed trade tensions could further weaken investment and exports.
在融资条件方面，拉加德指出，利率总体有所上升，而股价则出现下跌。
On financing conditions, Lagarde noted that interest rates have broadly moved higher while stock prices have fallen.
8月份企业银行贷款利率为3.8%，而基于市场的债务成本升至4.1%，由于借贷成本上升，企业贷款需求有所下降。
Bank lending rates for firms stood at 3.8% in August, while the cost of market-based debt rose to 4.1% and corporate loan demand declined due to higher borrowing costs.
8月份抵押贷款利率升至3.6%，导致家庭住房贷款需求大幅下降。
Mortgage rates rose to 3.6% in August, leading to a substantial drop in household demand for home loans.
拉加德呼吁针对能源冲击采取临时性、有针对性和量身定制的财政措施，并敦促欧盟政策制定者尽快敲定数字欧元的法律框架。
Lagarde called for temporary, targeted and tailored fiscal measures in response to the energy shock and urged European Union policymakers to finalize the legal framework for the digital euro as quickly as possible.
拉加德重申了央行2%的中期通胀目标，并强调未来的利率决策将遵循依赖数据、逐次会议评估的方式，不会预先承诺具体的利率路径。
Reaffirming the central bank's medium-term 2% inflation target, Lagarde stressed that future rate decisions will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to a specific interest rate path.