美国人想到争夺众议院控制权时，脑海中浮现的往往是宾夕法尼亚州、亚利桑那州和纽约州的摇摆选区。但事实是，可能在未来数年塑造众议院格局的关键战役，其实是德克萨斯州州长选举。如果州长格雷格·阿博特（共和党）连任成功，可能会引发进一步的重新划分选区，将三到七个众议院席位通过杰利蝾螈划区手段长期锁定在共和党手中。
When Americans think about the fight for the House, they picture swing districts in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York. But the truth is that the contest that could shape the House for years to come is the race for governor of Texas. If Gov. Greg Abbott (R) wins reelection, it could set in motion further redistricting that gerrymanders three to seven House seats out of play and into Republican hands for the long haul.
德克萨斯州共和党人已经展示了他们掌握不受制约的权力后会做什么。去年夏天，在特朗普总统竞选团队的施压下，他们在十年一次的常规周期之外重新绘制了该州的国会选区地图，绘制出的地图可能让他们拿下德州38个国会席位中的30个。新选区界线瞄准了由拉美裔和黑人选民联盟构建的选区，涉及里奥格兰德河谷、达拉斯-沃斯堡地区和德克萨斯中部。
Texas Republicans have already shown what they will do with unchecked power. Last summer, under pressure from President Trump's political team, they redrew the state's congressional map in the middle of the decade, producing a map that could give them 30 of Texas's 38 congressional seats. The new lines took aim at districts built by coalitions of Latino and Black voters in the Rio Grande Valley, Dallas-Fort Worth and Central Texas.
最高法院支持了这张地图，甚至进一步扩大了影响。在路易斯安那州诉卡莱案中，法院大幅削弱了《投票权法案》保护有色人种社区免受杰利蝾螈划区侵害的条款。大法官埃琳娜·卡根在异议意见中写道，该裁决使该保护条款“几乎成为一纸死字”。几十年来，这项法律防止了德州拉美裔社区被肢解、声音被淹没。如今，据休斯顿大学一位教授称，几乎不存在法律限制来约束选区地图可以有多大程度地服务于党派利益。
The Supreme Court upheld it and even went further. In Louisiana v. Callais, the court gutted the Voting Rights Act protections for communities of color from gerrymandering. Justice Elena Kagan wrote in dissent that the ruling leaves that protection “all but a dead letter.”For decades, it was the law that kept Latino communities in Texas from being carved up and drowned out. Now, according to a University of Houston professor, there are virtually no legal limits on how aggressively partisan a map can be.
早期报道显示，德州共和党人计划在2027年再次重绘国会选区地图，连同选票上更下层级的选区地图一并重绘。每个仍能让德州拉美裔选民在国会拥有真实话语权的选区都将成为博弈对象。这使得州长职位成为德州的最后一道防线。新地图是一项法案，法案需要州长签署才能生效。阿博特签署了上一张地图，也会签署下一张。
Early reports show Texas Republicans plan to redraw the congressional map again in 2027, along with the maps down the ballot. Every district that still gives Latino Texans a real voice in Congress will be on the table. That makes the governorship the last line of defense in Texas. A new map is a bill, and a bill needs the governor's signature. Abbott signed the last one and would sign the next one.
民主党籍州长可以否决它，而德州共和党人没有足够票数推翻否决。今年11月谁获胜，将决定下一次杰利蝾螈划区最早明年就能成为法律。影响不止于此。
A Democratic governor can veto it, and Texas Republicans do not have the votes to override. Whoever wins this November decides whether the next gerrymander becomes law as early as next year. It doesn’t stop there.
预计在2030年人口普查后，得克萨斯州将新增四个国会席位，而共和党人也将试图对这些席位进行不公正的选区划分。每一轮不受制约的选区划分，都让民主党赢得众议院多数的算术变得更加困难，也让全国增长最快的拉丁裔群体之一拥有更少的代表来回应他们的诉求。共和党人绘制选区地图时押注拉丁裔选民会继续像2024年那样投票——当时特朗普赢得了得州拉丁裔的多数支持，里奥格兰德河沿岸的县也翻红。
Texas is projected to gain four more congressional seats after the 2030 census, and Republicans will try to gerrymander these too. Every round of unchecked gerrymandering makes the math to a Democratic House harder, and it leaves one of the fastest-growing Latino populations in the country with fewer representatives who answer to it. Republicans drew their maps on a bet that Latino voters would keep voting the way they did in 2024, when Trump won a majority of Texas Latinos and counties along the Rio Grande turned red.
如今这个赌注看起来像个错误。今年3月，得州64个拉丁裔占多数的县的民主党初选投票率比2022年上升了四个百分点，甚至超过了2024年总统大选年的水平。今年秋天，Univision-YouGov的一项民调发现，得州拉丁裔在国会选举中支持民主党领先13个百分点，而大约三分之一的曾投票给特朗普的拉丁裔现在对当初的选择存有疑虑或感到后悔。
That bet now looks like a mistake. In March, Democratic primary turnout in Texas's 64 Latino-majority counties rose four points over 2022 and topped even the 2024 presidential year. This fall, a Univision-YouGov poll found Texas Latinos favor Democrats for Congress by 13 points, and roughly one in three Latinos who voted for Trump now have doubts or regret their choice.
为何出现这种转变？拉丁裔家庭被承诺物价会降低，结果却迎来了更高的物价。足足四分之三的拉丁裔现在不认可特朗普的经济政策。这对本选举周期的众议院选情是个好消息。但得州的全州选举往往由微弱差距决定。2018年，美国参议院选举的差距不到21.5万票。约有650万得州拉丁裔有资格投票，而拉丁裔占该州注册选民的四分之一以上。
Why the swing? Latino families were promised lower prices and got higher ones. A full three-quarters of Latinos now disapprove of Trump’s economic policies. That’s good news for the House this cycle. But statewide races in Texas are won at the margins. In 2018, the U.S. Senate race came down to fewer than 215,000 votes. Some 6.5 million Latino Texans are eligible to vote, and Latinos make up more than a quarter of registered voters in the state.
如果他们继续回摆支持民主党，他们就能决定州长选举的结果，进而决定未来数年国会选区地图的格局。得州民主党人有一位强有力的州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨。远在得州之外的选民也应该关注这场选举，因为其结果将在选举日很久之后体现在众议院多数席位的归属上。争夺众议院的战斗贯穿得州，而争夺得州的战斗贯穿拉丁裔社区。
If they continue to swing back to Democrats, they can decide the governor’s race, and with it, the shape of the congressional map for years to come. Texas Democrats have a strong gubernatorial nominee in Gina Hinojosa. Voters far beyond Texas should be watching this race, because its outcome will show up in the House majority long after Election Day. The fight for the House runs through Texas, and the fight for Texas runs through Latino communities.
今年11月，得州拉丁裔可以保护自己的代表权，并帮助决定谁掌控国会。未来在我们的社区中决定。
This November, Texas Latinos can protect their own representation and help decide who controls Congress. El futuro se decide en nuestras comunidades.
琳达·桑切斯是美国众议院加利福尼亚州第38选区的代表。她是国会拉美裔党团竞选机构CHC BOLD PAC的主席。
Linda Sanchez represents California's 38th District in the U.S. House. She is chairwoman of CHC BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.