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美国有线电视新闻网

选区重划如何塑造2026年中期选举How redistricting is shaping the 2026 midterms

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在总统唐纳德·特朗普的领导下,共和党人于去年发起了一场历史性的十年中期选区重划战,其目标是保护他们在美国众议院中极其微弱的多数优势,以应对预计将十分艰难的中期选举环境。

When Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, launched a historic mid-decade redistricting war last year, their goal was to protect their razor-thin majority in the US House of Representatives against what was expected to be a difficult midterm environment.

如今,这一战略将接受考验。共和党人的目标是在他们重新绘制地图的7个州中翻盘15个席位。加利福尼亚州民主党人绘制的一张新地图,加上犹他州法院下令绘制的一张地图,为民主党人带来了6个夺取席位的机会。

Now, that strategy will be tested. Republicans are aiming to flip 15 seats in seven states where they redrew maps. A new map drawn by Democrats in California, plus one ordered by a court in Utah, give Democrats six pickup opportunities.

鉴于微弱的优势,这些席位可能对于决定谁将在1月控制众议院至关重要。随着选举之夜结果的不断出炉,请随时关注——随着美国有线电视新闻网预测这些选区的竞选结果,这些图表将进行更新。

Given the narrow margin, these seats could be critical in determining who controls the House in January. Check back and follow along as results start coming in on Election Night — these graphics will update as CNN projects these races.

这些计划也有可能适得其反。为了赢得更多席位,一个政党可能会绘制出一张并未巩固、甚至削弱了该州其他选区的地图。

It’s also possible these plans could backfire. In their effort to win more seats, a party could’ve drawn a map that didn’t reinforce or even weakened districts elsewhere in a state.

如果一个政党在选举之夜结束时,在某个州的席位总数没有超过他们开始时的数量,那么赢得新地图锁定的席位也就意义有限了。

Winning the seats targeted by a new map only means so much if the party doesn’t end the night with more seats in a state they started with.

在这9个州中,由党派操盘手绘制的新地图显示出了划界造假的迹象——成群的选民被塞进少数几个选区,或者被分散到几个选区中。

Across these nine states, the new maps drawn by partisan actors show the signs of gerrymandering — groups of voters packed together into just a few districts or distributed across several.

其目的是确保你的对手赢得尽可能少的席位,同时让你的政党有机会最大化你们的潜在收益。

The goal is to ensure your opponents win as few seats as possible, while giving your party the chance to maximize your potential gains.

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