美国经济扩张已进入第七年，目前尚未看到衰退迹象。失业率和裁员人数处于历史低位。消费者支出数据显示，美国人正在现场娱乐、旅游和外出就餐等方面大手大脚地花钱。经济正以一年多来的最快速度增长。而从许多指标来看，人们却感到痛苦。相当一部分美国人表示，感觉经济对他们不利。
The US economic expansion is in its seventh year, and there is no recession in sight. Unemployment and layoffs are historically low. Consumer spending data suggest that Americans are splurging on things like live entertainment, travel and eating out. The economy is growing at its fastest pace in a year. And by many measures, people are miserable. A significant portion of Americans say it feels like the economy is stacked against them.
民调显示，他们为生活成本感到压力，为工作保障感到焦虑，对经济前景持悲观态度。更别提汽油价格了。
Polls indicate that they are stressed out about the cost of living, anxious about job security, and pessimistic about their economic future. And do not even get them started on gasoline prices.
在11月3日美国中期选举前，经济问题一直被列为选民最关心的问题。但情况真的像许多人说的那样不稳定吗？物价上涨了多少？
Economic issues keep showing up as voters’ top concerns ahead of the US midterm elections on Nov 3. But are things as shaky as many say? How much have prices gone up?
在新冠疫情后的几年里，美国人面临了四十多年来最严重的通货膨胀。他们仍在为价格冲击而苦苦挣扎。物价仍在上涨，但涨幅已比几年前放缓。
Americans confronted the hottest inflation in more than four decades in the years immediately following the Covid pandemic. They are still struggling with sticker shock. Prices continue to go up, though at a slower pace than a few years ago.
美国劳工统计局消费者价格指数衡量的商品和服务篮子，9月份比去年同期上涨了3.7%。这一涨幅不到美国从疫情中走出来时达到的9.1%通胀峰值的一半。但这仍然足以让人注意到。价格的持续上涨叠加在疫情后的价格飙升之上。自2019年底以来，整体消费者价格上涨了约30%。
The basket of goods and services measured by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index was 3.7% higher in September than a year earlier. That is less than half the 9.1% pace of inflation reached as the US emerged from the pandemic. But it is still high enough for people to notice. The steady rise in prices comes on top of the post-pandemic spike. Since the end of 2019, overall consumer prices are up by about 30%.
杂货价格上涨了32%。外出就餐价格上涨了近40%。租金上涨了三分之一以上。电费上涨了43%。汽车维修费用上涨了一半多，汽车保险费用上涨了约48%。这些价格上涨有多不寻常？
Groceries are 32% more expensive. Eating out is close to 40% more. Rents are up by more than a third. Electricity costs are up by 43%. Auto maintenance jumped by more than half and car insurance by about 48%. How unusual are the price increases?
物价几乎总是在上涨，但通常不会这么快。在疫情前的十年里，年通胀率平均约为1.8%。现在大约是这个数字的两倍。部分原因是经济面临一系列冲击，加速了价格上涨。2021年全球经济重新开放后，供应链被拉长并断裂。
Prices are almost always rising, but usually not this fast. In the decade before the pandemic, annual inflation averaged around 1.8%. Now it is roughly double that. That is in part because the economy faced a series of shocks that accelerated price gains. Supply chains stretched and broke in 2021 after the global economy reopened.
随后，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰切断了化肥、小麦和石油运输，推高了食品和燃料价格。
Then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine choked off fertiliser, wheat and oil shipments, sending food and fuel prices higher.
特朗普政府的“解放日”关税令市场受惊，随后的关税又推高了许多商品的价格。
The Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs spooked markets, and subsequent levies raised prices on many goods.
人工智能技术的建设推动了企业投资和建筑业招聘，但也推高了计算机软件和零部件的价格。最近，伊朗战争导致能源价格上涨，借贷成本上升。
The buildout in artificial intelligence technology fuelled business investment and construction hiring but also sent prices for computer software and components higher. And most recently the Iran war has led to higher energy prices and rising borrowing costs.
“供应冲击来得更频繁、冲击更猛、持续时间更长，”芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比在9月于伦敦发表的一次演讲中表示。
“Supply shocks have come more frequently, hit harder and lasted longer,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee said in a speech in London in September.
为了抑制通胀，美联储在9月自2023年以来首次加息，但在10月随后的一次利率制定会议上维持利率不变。美国人如何度日？自2019年底以来，美国人的平均时薪上涨了约三分之一。但扣除通胀因素后，工资几乎没有跟上价格上涨。而且，美国人取得的微小进步也开始消失。截至9月，实际工资已连续六个月低于一年前。
In an effort to tamp down inflation, the Fed in September raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, but left them unchanged at a subsequent rate-setting meeting in October. How are Americans getting by? Americans’ hourly earnings are, on average, up about one-third since the end of 2019. But adjusted for inflation, pay has barely kept up with rising prices. And even the marginal gains Americans have made are beginning to evaporate. Inflation-adjusted pay was down from a year earlier for six straight months as of September.
即便如此，工人仍在继续消费——动用各种资源来做到这一点。常规薪水并非唯一的收入或财富来源。有些人在零工经济中工作。股市今年创下一系列纪录，提升了投资者的投资组合。
Even so, workers continue to spend – tapping a range of resources to do so. Regular paycheques are not the only source of income or wealth. Some people work in the gig economy. The stock market hit a series of records this year, lifting investor portfolios.
过去几年房价大幅上涨，2026年的大额退税也增加了家庭预算。但在退休前，工资仍是大多数美国人收入的主要来源。
Home values have grown substantially over the past few years, and big tax refunds in 2026 boosted household budgets. But wages are the main contributor to income for most Americans up until retirement.
工资增长疲软伴随价格上涨，迫使许多人少存钱——或者根本不存钱。就业市场发生了什么？在好消息方面，许多人都在领取薪水。美国经济在许多衡量指标上正处于或接近充分就业状态。失业率处于历史低位，尽管9月略有上升，至4.2%。医疗保健、建筑和制造业在过去几个月都在增加就业岗位。
Sluggish wage growth alongside rising prices has forced many to save less – or not save at all. What is happening in the job market? On the good news front, plenty of people are earning a paycheque. The US economy is by many measures operating at or near full employment. The unemployment rate is historically low, though it edged higher, to 4.2%, in September. Healthcare, construction and manufacturing have all been adding jobs in recent months.
劳动参与率在9月也有所上升，这通常是一个积极信号，表明更多人正在寻找工作。但行业特定的强劲表现和低失业率掩盖了疲软的就业市场。雇主并没有解雇多少员工，但总体上他们也没有招聘多少员工。这让一些人感到原地踏步。
And the labour force participation rate also rose in September, typically a positive sign that more people are looking for work. But sector-specific strength and the low unemployment rate mask a sluggish job market. Employers are not laying off many workers, but overall they are not hiring many workers, either. That has left some people feeling stuck in place.
Glassdoor的员工信心指数衡量员工对雇主未来六个月业务前景的乐观程度，该指数9月降至该调查10年历史上的最低水平。
Glassdoor’s employee confidence index, which measures how optimistic workers are about the business outlook of their employer over the next six months, fell in September to the lowest level in the survey’s 10-year history.
另一些人则被完全挡在门外。应届大学毕业生尤其难以进入就业市场，长期失业者人数也在增加。
Others are simply locked out. Entry-level college graduates have had an especially tough time cracking the job market, and the ranks of long-term unemployed are growing.
因此，虽然存在一些需求强劲的领域，但整体就业市场还不够热，不足以广泛提高实际工资或创造广泛的机会。谁感到原地踏步？有工作的人很可能能保住工作——裁员处于历史低位。疫情前购房的美国房主眼睁睁看着房产价值飙升。
So while there are pockets of strong demand, the overall job market is not hot enough to broadly lift real wages or create wide-ranging opportunities. Who is feeling stuck? A person who has a job is likely to keep it – layoffs are historically low. US homeowners who bought before the pandemic have watched property values soar.
投资者也表现不错。与标普500指数挂钩的指数基金，自2019年底以来价值已翻了一番，即使收益没有再投资。但当这些里程碑不适用时，可能意味着正在进一步落后。住房拥有权是一个令人沮丧的领域。
And investors have done well. An index fund tied to the S&P 500 has more than doubled in value since the end of 2019 even if the gains have not been reinvested. But when these milestones do not apply, it might be a sign of falling further behind. Home ownership is one area of frustration.
二手住房的中位销售价格自2019年底以来上涨了约一半，30年期固定抵押贷款利率已从不到4%攀升至7%以上。不计税费和保险，这相当于每月还款额大约是疫情前的两倍。人工智能扮演什么角色？人工智能投资是经济的亮点之一。
The median sales price of an existing home is up by about half since the end of 2019, and rates on 30-year fixed mortgages have climbed to more than 7% from less than 4%. Excluding taxes and insurance, that equates to a payment that is roughly double what it was before the pandemic. What role is AI playing? Investment in artificial intelligence is one of the economy’s bright spots.
但这对许多担心技术会取代自己工作、而数据中心会占据社区土地的美国人来说，却是冷冰冰的安慰。
But that has been cold comfort for many Americans who worry that the technology will eliminate their jobs while its data centres swallow up land in their communities.
据摩根大通公司（JPMorgan Chase & Co.）预计，到2030年，数据中心的资本支出累计可能高达5.5万亿美元。
Capital spending on data centres could total US$5.5 trillion cumulatively by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
据路透社/益普索（Reuters/Ipsos）6月的一项调查显示，约54%的民主党人和37%的共和党人表示反对在美国建设新的数据中心。
Some 54% of Democrats and 37% of Republicans said they oppose construction of new data centres in the US, according to a June survey by Reuters/Ipsos.
“人们非常担心，无论是直接还是间接，这对他们的工作意味着什么，”晨咨询公司（Morning Consult）首席经济学家约翰·利尔（John Leer）表示。“这是经济规则和结构似乎在改变的另一种方式。”究竟是什么在塑造消费者的前景？美国人对自身经济地位的看法，往往不仅仅取决于个人财务状况。
“People are very concerned, either directly or indirectly, around what this is going to mean for their jobs,” said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult. “It’s another way in which the rules and the structure of the economy seem to be changing.”What actually is shaping consumers’ outlook? Americans’ views about their economic standing tend to be shaped by more than just their personal finances.
事实上，调查显示，当其所在政党执掌白宫时，个人通常对经济更为乐观。
Indeed, surveys show that individuals generally feel more optimistic about the economy when their party holds the White House.
当其所在政党不在执政地位时，即使自身状况稳定，他们也会变得更加悲观。
When their party is out of power, they become more pessimistic, even when their own situation is stable.
例如，在唐纳德·特朗普于2024年再次当选总统后，即使在他就职前，共和党人的消费者情绪就已飙升，而民主党人的情绪则下降。
After Donald Trump was re-elected president in 2024, for example, consumer sentiment surged among Republicans and dropped among Democrats even before his inauguration.
但自2026年初以来，各党派、各地区和各收入群体的情绪指标均出现下滑，表明广大美国人对经济存在担忧。彭博社（BLOOMBERG）
But since the start of 2026, measures of sentiment have slumped across political affiliation, geography and income, suggesting a wide swath of Americans harbour concerns about the economy. BLOOMBERG