中国投资者正大举涌入跟踪较长期政府债券的交易所交易基金（ETF），在债市上涨、本地股市持续走低之际寻求避险。
Chinese investors are piling into exchange-traded funds tracking longer-dated government bonds, seeking shelter in a rallying debt market while local stocks keep sliding.
彭博汇编的数据显示，10月份，两只挂钩30年期国债的在岸ETF合计吸引138亿元人民币（21亿美元）的净流入。这是自2025年7月以来的最高水平。
Two onshore ETFs linked to 30-year government notes have drawn 13.8 billion yuan ($2.1 billion) of net inflows in October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the highest since July 2025.
这波资金涌入推动这两只基金市值创下纪录。彭博汇编的数据显示，自下半年以来，鹏扬中债-30年期国债ETF规模增长57%，博时上证30年期国债ETF上涨68%。
The surge has pushed both funds to record market capitalizations. The Pengyang ChinaBond 30-year Treasury Bond ETF has grown 57% since the start of the second half, while the Bosera SSE 30-Year China Treasury Bond ETF is up 68%, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
温和的经济增长、充裕的流动性以及本地投资者缺乏有吸引力的替代选择，为政府债券提供了支撑。中国股市未能提供多少避风港，随着消费持续低迷以及对AI盈利能力的疑虑日益加深，股市在10月跌入熊市区间，成为全球表现最差的市场之一。
Government bonds are finding support from moderate economic growth, ample liquidity and a lack of attractive alternatives for local investors. Chinese stocks have offered little refuge, with the market sliding into bear territory in October as a prolonged consumption slump and growing doubts over AI profitability made them among the world’s worst performers.
华源证券分析师廖志明本周在报告中写道，投资者尤其青睐较长期债券，这类债券在第四季度仍有进一步上涨的空间。他预计，借贷成本下降和债券供给减少将推动30年期国债收益率在年底前从目前的约2.05%降至2%附近。
Investors are particularly keen on longer-dated debt, where there’s room for further gains in the fourth quarter, Liao Zhiming, an analyst at Huayuan Securities, wrote in a note this week. He expects lower borrowing costs and lighter bond supply to push the 30-year yield toward 2% by year-end, from around 2.05% currently.
资金涌入债券基金的同时，现券和期货市场也普遍上涨。中债数据显示，中国5年期和7年期国债收益率周四收于纪录低位，而10年期国债收益率为1.62%，仅比2025年初创下的纪录低点高出几个基点。
The rush into bond funds has been accompanied by a broader rally in both cash notes and futures. Yields on China’s five- and seven-year government bonds closed at record lows Thursday, according to ChinaBond, while the 10-year is at 1.62%, just a few basis points above the record low reached in early 2025.
随着对冲基金兴趣上升，30年期国债期货的持仓量也跃升至纪录水平。
Positions in 30-year bond futures have also jumped to a record amid rising interest from hedge funds.
法国农业信贷银行企业与投资银行部驻香港策略师杰弗里·张表示：“相对宽松的流动性环境将继续支撑债券需求。”他指出，中国银行股表现优异，这再次表明在岸市场对类固定收益资产的需求强劲。
“The relatively accommodative liquidity environment would continue to support demand for bonds,” said Jeffrey Zhang, strategist at Crédit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. He pointed to the outperformance of Chinese bank shares as another sign of strong demand for quasi-fixed income assets in the onshore market.