无论中期选举结果如何，民主党都面临着关于其主张为何、谁应代表该党的棘手问题。
Whatever the result of the midterm elections, the party is facing tough questions over what they stand for and who should represent them.
文/阿斯玛·哈立德 詹姆斯·史蒂文斯自称民主社会主义者。这位24岁的电影专业学生是那种民主党人，他回忆说，六年前就观看过挑衅性的左翼网络评论员哈桑·皮克的节目，“那时他还未在政治上具有影响力”。去年，詹姆斯从家乡佐治亚州飞往纽约市，为佐赫兰·马姆达尼的市长竞选活动拉票。
By Asma Khalid James Stevens calls himself a democratic socialist. The 24-year-old film student is the type of Democrat who recalls watching the provocative left-wing internet commentator Hasan Piker six years ago, "before he became relevant in politics". Last year, James flew up from his home in Georgia to New York City to canvass for Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign.
他的母亲塔玛拉，56岁，也是忠实的民主党人。但属于不同类型。她在共和党环境中长大，在奥普拉节目上看到贝拉克·奥巴马后转投民主党。如今，她是忠诚的党内女性，捍卫生殖权利，参加竞选集会，向本地候选人捐款。
His mother, Tamara, 56, is a loyal Democrat too. But of a different ilk. She grew up Republican then switched to the Democratic Party after seeing Barack Obama on Oprah. These days, she's a loyal party woman, championing reproductive rights, attending campaign rallies and donating to local candidates.
母子俩都希望民主党在下周二的中期选举中赢得国会控制权，但他们并不完全认同希望民主党成为什么样的党。
Both mother and son want Democrats to win control of Congress at next Tuesday's midterm elections, but they don't entirely agree on what they want their Democratic Party to be.
“我非常厌倦民主党对那些不惠及大多数人的共和党政策妥协退让，”詹姆斯在我采访时说道，他母亲在一旁听着。“民主党需要一个大胆的愿景，”他说，主张该党应采纳美国民主社会主义者（DSA）这一左翼分裂团体主张的政策。在他看来，这意味着反犹太复国主义、将企业资金赶出政治、实行政府主导的免费医疗。
"I'm very sick of how compromising Democrats are to Republican policies that don't benefit a large group of people," James told me, as his mother looked on. "There needs to be a bold vision for the Democrats," he says, arguing that the party should adopt policies affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a left-wing splinter group. In his view, that means anti-Zionism, getting corporate money out of politics, and government-run free healthcare.
华盛顿的传统观点认为，民主党在下周投票后有利条件夺得众议院控制权，甚至可能拿下参议院。
The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Democrats are well-positioned to take control of the House, and possibly even the Senate, after the vote next week.
潜在条件对民主党有利——共和党籍美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持率处于一位即将面临中期选举的总统的历史最低点，与乔治·W·布什2006年最后一个任期时的水平相当；伊朗战争仍未结束，且在美国选民中不受欢迎；这导致油价上涨，令本已对生活成本感到担忧的选民感到沮丧。传统上，中期选举是对在位总统的一次公投。在过去20次美国中期选举中，有18次执政党在众议院失去了席位。指南：什么是美国中期选举？
Underlying conditions are in Democrats' favour – Republican US President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record low for a president heading into a midterm, comparable to George W Bush in his final term in 2006; the Iran war still isn't over and it's proving unpopular with American voters; and this has led to higher gas prices, which are frustrating an electorate that is already worried about the cost of living. Traditionally, the midterms are a referendum on a sitting president. In 18 of the last 20 US midterm elections, the party in power has lost seats in the House. GUIDE: What are the US midterms?
深度报道：美国年轻政客如此之少的真正原因 探索：美国中期选举的胜负手在哪里 核查：特朗普执政下美国经济真实表现如何 然而，尽管存在这些有利因素，民主党在全国范围内也缺乏人气。《真相政治》网站的民调平均值显示，美国公众认为民主党仅比共和党略好一些。近期民调显示，民主党在美国人中的净依然居高不下。政治分析人士表示，如果共和党设法打破惯例、在中期选举中保住席位，一个关键原因是民主党（或民主党的品牌形象）同样不受大多数美国选民喜爱。
IN DEPTH: The real reasons there are so few young US politicians EXPLORE: Where the US midterms will be won and lost VERIFY: How the US economy is really doing under Trump And yet despite those circumstances, the Democratic Party is also unpopular nationwide. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows the American public sees the Democrats as only marginally better than the Republicans. Recent polls show the Democratic Party still has a net unfavourability rating among Americans. Political analysts say that if the Republicans manage to buck the trend and survive these midterms, one key reason is that the Democratic Party (or the Democratic brand) is disliked by a majority of American voters too.
在关于哪个政党或哪位候选人将在周二获胜的头条新闻背后，本选举季还有一个关于民主党身份认同的故事。这是一场体制派与改革派之间的斗争，是想要渐进式变革的人与要求彻底变革的人之间的较量。问题是，从长远来看，谁将胜出？仅仅是“反特朗普”的政党？
Behind the headlines of which party or which candidates win this Tuesday, there's also a story this election season about Democratic identity. This is a fight between institutionalists and reformists, of people who want incremental change and those who demand root-and-branch transformation. The question is, who will win out in the long run? The not-Trump party?
我过去十余年一直报道美国各级全国性选举，而这次选举有些不同。2018年中期选举前夕，我在唐纳德·特朗普第一任期内外出采访选民时，注意到许多民主党选民在反对总统一事上异常团结。但这次，我在团结的表象下，察觉到一场正在酝酿的内斗。
I've covered every national US election in the past dozen years and this is an unusual one. When I was out interviewing voters ahead of the 2018 midterms during Donald Trump's first term, I was struck by how united many Democratic voters were in their opposition to the president. This time, I've noticed that under the facade of unity, there's a brewing fight.
关于民主党到底代表什么，一直存在持续的疑问，这些分歧在本届中期选举的初选中爆发出来。“该党的身份相当模糊，”美国企业研究所（一家中间偏右智库）高级研究员吕·泰谢拉说。“一切都围绕对特朗普政府的反应，以及利用对政府的恒温式反弹……除此之外，党内还有各种不同的派系。”民主党内部争斗的部分原因在于，该党在2024年总统竞选中从未有机会进行这场斗争：乔·拜登在选举前几个月突然退出，卡玛拉·哈里斯被提名。
There are persistent questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, and these divides erupted during the primaries this midterm cycle. "The identity of the party is pretty cloudy," said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a centre-right think tank. "It's all centred on reaction to the Trump administration and taking advantage of what is a thermostatic reaction against the administration... Beyond that, there's all these different factions in the party." Part of the reason for this Democratic infighting is that the party never had a chance to have this fight during the 2024 presidential race, with the sudden departure of Joe Biden months before the election and nomination of Kamala Harris.
分析人士一致认为，即使民主党在选举之夜取得重大胜利，也无法回答那些更深层、尚未解决的问题，因为他们正试图维持这个“大帐篷”政党，以争取国会议席或瞄准2028年总统大选。
Analysts agree that if Democrats make big wins on election night, it still won't answer deeper, unresolved questions as they try to keep their big tent together to corral votes in Congress or eye the 2028 presidency.
简单来说，分歧在于党内中间派、更温和的派别与其左翼之间。但操盘手和分析人士表示，这也是体制派与那些希望彻底颠覆现有体制的人之间的分歧。双方都认为自己更了解选民真正想要什么。
In simplistic terms, the divide is between the centrist, more moderate wing of the party and its left flank. But operatives and analysts say it's also a divide between institutionalists and those who want to completely upend the existing institution. Both feel they have a better read on what voters genuinely want.
来自左翼团体“正义民主党”的乌萨姆·安德拉比将责任归咎于民主党建制派，认为他们导致了共和党国会和总统的上台。“所以我认为，把我们带入这场混乱的人，根本不会是带领我们走出困境的人，”他告诉我。
Usamah Andrabi, of the Justice Democrats, a prominent left-wing group, blames the Democratic establishment for ushering in a Republican Congress and president. "And so I think the people who led us into this mess are simply not gonna be the ones who lead us out of it," he told me.
“负担危机……规模巨大，不能靠边缘的微调来解决，”他补充道。相反，他坚持认为，只有通过诸如全民医疗保健和托儿服务等政策，以及通过削减五角大楼预算来停止‘无休止的战争’，从而重新分配资金，才能解决这一问题。
"The affordability crisis… is a massive one, and it's not going to be resolved by tinkering at the margins," he added. Instead, he insists, it'll be solved through policies like universal healthcare and childcare, and redistributing money by cutting the Pentagon's budget to stop "endless wars".
他的组织于2017年成立，旨在招募并支持在众议院被称为“the Squad”的议员们——这是该院最左翼的派系，成员包括亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯和伊尔汗·奥马尔等人。
His organisation sprang up in 2017 to recruit and support the congressional members who became known as "the Squad", the furthest-left faction in the House, which includes members such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.
《库克政治报告》常务编辑、非党派通讯社的卡莉·丹恩表示，医疗保健将是这场斗争可能展开的主要领域之一。
Healthcare will be one of the main arenas in which this fight is likely to play out, says Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that forecasts the competitiveness of races.
“至少在更透明、更了解医疗费用为何如此高昂方面，公众的需求非常强烈，”丹恩说。“如果你走错一步，摔断了腿，庞大的美国民众将因现行的医疗体系而感到生活翻天覆地。”
"There is a lot of appetite for, at the very least, more transparency, more understanding of why healthcare costs are so high," said Dann. " Take a bad step, break your leg, and a huge swathe of Americans would see their worlds turned upside down by that because of the healthcare system as it is."
本届选举周期中，多位民主党候选人提出了降低已有健康保险人群“自付”费用的设想——在美国医疗体系中，除常规保险费用外还要承担额外费用是常见现象。但党内还有另一派别对渐进式改革感到厌倦，主张建立一种在使用时免费、全国统一的医疗体系——全民医保（Medicare for All）。
Several Democratic candidates this election cycle have outlined ideas to lower "out-of-pocket" costs for those who already have health insurance - being hit with additional costs on top of regular insurance payments is a common feature of the American healthcare system. But there's another flank of the party that is fed up with incremental changes and wants a national healthcare system that is free at the point of use - Medicare for All.
最新民调显示，大多数民主党人支持这种医疗体系，而大多数共和党人则反对。但也有民主党人认为此议题并非非黑即白。
Recent polling suggests a majority of Democrats favour this kind of healthcare system, but a majority of Republicans oppose it. But some Democrats say there's nuance in the issue.
“人们希望拥有全民医疗保健，同时也希望能够保留他们的健康保险，”乔·拜登前国内政策顾问、现任美国进步中心（Center for American Progress）首席执行官尼拉·坦登说。
"People want to have universal healthcare, and they also want to be able to keep their health insurance," says Neera Tanden, Joe Biden's former domestic policy adviser, now CEO of the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.
主流建制派民主党人承认，许多人视医疗保健为一项权利，但他们坚持认为，其他人强烈反对完全由政府运营的项目，担心护理标准会下降，并坚持保留保留私人医疗保险的选择权。
Mainstream establishment Democrats acknowledge that many people see healthcare as a right, but they insist that others strongly oppose a fully government-run programme, fearing lower standards of care, and insist on having the option of keeping their private health insurance.
医疗成本全面上涨——医疗保险和自付医疗费用、住院费用和处方药成本近年来均大幅飙升，涨幅快于通胀率。随着医疗开支增加，民调显示，全民医保的想法不再像过去那样离谱，而本轮竞选周期表明，政客公开呼吁全民医保已远非禁忌。
Healthcare costs have gone up across the board - health insurance and out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, hospital expenses and prescription drug costs have all surged in recent years, rising faster than the rate of inflation. As medical expenses have increased, polls suggest the idea of universal healthcare isn't as outlandish as it once seemed, and this campaign cycle has shown that it's far less taboo for politicians to openly call for it.
回到佐治亚州，塔玛拉和詹姆斯在医疗问题上意见一致——他们都想要全民医保。
Back in Georgia, it's an issue on which Tamara and James agree - they want universal healthcare.
但他们最根本的分歧在于以色列问题。塔玛拉自称犹太复国主义者。“我孩子听我这么说会生气，”她说。他们绝非唯一在进行这场辩论的民主党人。
But their most fundamental disagreement is over Israel. Tamara calls herself a Zionist. "My kids get mad at me for saying that," she said. And they're hardly the only Democrats having this debate.
库克政治报告的丹恩表示，本轮选举周期最大的教训之一是，民主党选民不仅在寻找愿意对抗特朗普的候选人，还在寻找愿意挑战建制派的候选人。丹恩指向关键摇摆州密歇根州，在初选中，阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德——以色列及其在加沙行动的猛烈批评者——在民主党建制派反对声中脱颖而出。
Dann, from the Cook Political Report, says one of the biggest lessons from this election cycle is that Democratic voters weren't just looking for candidates willing to fight Trump, but candidates willing to take on the establishment. Dann points to the key swing state of Michigan, where in the primary, Abdul El-Sayed - a fierce critic of Israel and its actions in Gaza - came out on top over the objections of the Democratic establishment.
她说：“我认为原因之一是，他不仅谈论对抗唐纳德·特朗普，还谈论对抗民主党建制派……华盛顿整个建制派。”这种反建制态度的部分原因关乎美国对以色列的支持。
"I think one reason for that was that he was not only talking about taking on Donald Trump, but taking on the Democratic establishment… the establishment in Washington writ large," she said. And part of that anti-establishment attitude is about US support for Israel.
以色列问题 因认为拜登过度支持以色列在加沙的行动而于2024年离开民主党的一些人，如今在埃尔-赛义德强硬基调的激励下重新回归。
The Israel question Some who left the party in 2024 because they believe Biden was too supportive of Israel's actions in Gaza are now returning, energised by El-Sayed's tough tone.
“我的底线是加沙，”阿拉伯裔美国活动家萨姆拉·卢克曼说。她住在密歇根州，在上届总统大选中投了特朗普的票，因为那一年她感到被民主党背叛。
"My red line has been Gaza," said Samraa Luqman, an Arab-American activist in Michigan who voted for Trump in the last presidential election, feeling betrayed by Democrats that year.
“2023年和2024年真给这个社区上了一课，我们不再会在该问题上摇摆不定。要么加沙，要么破产，”她告诉我。“如果你在加沙问题上、在以色列问题上、在巴勒斯坦问题上表现不好，那我们就不需要你。我们不需要你在任，也不需要投你的票，无论你的党派归属是什么。”但随着埃尔-赛义德激发了选民热情，他也疏远了其他人，特别是一些认为支持以色列关乎美国犹太人安全、并觉得其所在政党的反犹太主义在10月7日哈马斯致命袭击后有所抬头的人。
"2023 and 2024 have really taught this community a lesson that we are no longer going to be wishy-washy about the issue. It's Gaza or bust," she told me. "If you're not good on Gaza, on Israel, on Palestine, then we don't need you. We don't need you in office, and we don't need to vote for you, no matter what your party affiliation is." But as El-Sayed has energised voters, he's also alienated others, particularly some who see support for Israel as connected to Jewish safety in the US and feel that antisemitism in their party has grown after the deadly Hamas attacks of October 7.
扎克·内塞尔就是那些民主党人之一。他越来越担心自己在政治上变得无家可归。
Zach Nessel is one of those Democrats. And he's increasingly worried about becoming politically homeless.
“我们党内有人认为犹太复国主义者不该在我们党内有立足之地，应该被清除出党，”内塞尔告诉我。“作为一个自豪的犹太复国主义者，我不想仅仅因为中东的这一个问题就被赶出民主党联盟。”支持以色列在一些民主党初选中成了试金石，导致对美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）这一长期有影响力的游说团体的抵制情绪日益高涨。
"We have people who don't think Zionists should have a place in our party, that they should be removed from the party," Nessel told me. "And as a proud Zionist, I don't want to be removed from the Democratic coalition just over this one issue in the Middle East." Support for Israel became a litmus test in some Democratic primaries this season, leading to mounting resistance to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the longtime influential lobbying group.
意识形态试金石 但丹恩告诉我，不仅以色列是试金石，埃尔-赛义德的竞选本身也是。
Ideological test But Dann tells me that it's not just Israel that's a litmus test, it's El-Sayed's race itself.
“阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德的竞选逻辑是，他可以在一个紫色州[在‘红色’共和党和‘蓝色’民主党之间摇摆的州]以毫不掩饰的进步派身份参选并获胜，因为进步理念不仅在传播得当的情况下受欢迎，还能激活那些不一定是正常政治参与一部分的选民，特别是年轻人，”她说。
"Abdul El-Sayed's theory of the case is that he can run as an unabashed progressive in a purple state [a state that swings between the 'red' Republican party and 'blue' Democrats] and win because progressive ideas are not only popular if they're communicated correctly, but also activate voters who are not necessarily a normal part of the political process, particularly young people," she said.
她补充说，如果他获胜，左翼候选人将把这视为一种模式。如果他失败，党内较中间派的民主党人将把这视为左翼理念与主流选民脱节的证据。
If he wins, left-wing candidates will see it as a model, she adds. And if he loses, Democrats in the more centrist wing of the party will see it as evidence that left-wing ideas are out of touch with mainstream voters.
但也有像吉姆·凯斯勒这样的人，他是中间派智库“第三条道路”的成员，认为密歇根州不应成为关注焦点。他指出，如果民主党控制参议院，将归功于更多中间派候选人：北卡罗来纳州的罗伊·库珀、阿拉斯加州的玛丽·佩尔托拉、得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科、爱荷华州的乔什·图雷克、堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿。他说，正是他们在本周期扩大了民主党的胜算。“所以民主党胜利越大，越看起来像是中间派民主党人挺身而出，而不是民社候选人，”他说。
But there are others, like Jim Kessler with Third Way, a centrist think tank, who think Michigan shouldn't be the focus. He pointed out that if Democrats take control of the Senate it'll be because of more centrist candidates: Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Mary Peltola in Alaska, James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, Adam Hamilton in Kansas. They, he said, are the ones expanding Democrats' odds this cycle. " So the bigger the Democratic victory, the more it seems like the centrist Democrats came through, not the DSA candidates," he said.
本选举周期初选中，民社背书的候选人取得了一定进展，但他们的理念对许多人而言仍具争议。
DSA-endorsed candidates made gains during the primaries this election cycle, but their ideas are still controversial to many.
“唐登告诉我：“我不认为……美国绝大多数工人阶级是某种意义上的‘迷你社会主义者’，”她引用报道指出，支持民社的大多数人是受过大学教育的选民。她补充说：“工人阶级在犯罪和移民等问题上相当温和。”
" I don't think… the vast majority of working-class people in America are kind of mini socialists," Tanden told me, pointing to reporting that suggests the majority of people who support the DSA are college-educated voters. " Working-class people are pretty moderate on issues like crime and immigration," she added.
尽管如此，如果民主党赢得多数席位，其国会领袖将不得不应对一个民主党群体，其中可能会有更多声音最大、立场最左的声音。
Nonetheless, if Democrats gain the majority, their congressional leaders will have to navigate a group of Democrats in which there will likely be an increase in the loudest and most left-wing voices.
泰谢拉说：“民主党面临的最大挑战是如何真正兑现更好地管理经济、让生活更负担得起的承诺，因为他们一遍又一遍、大声疾呼地说这正是他们要做的。”
" The Democrats' biggest challenge is to figure out how to actually deliver on running the economy better and making things more affordable, because they've said over and over again and very loudly that's what they're going to do," said Teixeira.
抓住势头 毫无疑问，人们将在中期选举后的第二天开始认真思考下一位总统候选人。那么，究竟谁拥有势头：左翼还是中间派？
Seizing the momentum In all likelihood, people will start thinking seriously about the next presidential candidate the day after the midterms. So, who actually has the momentum: the left flank or the centre?
“选举结束后，我认为我们会看到派系之间大量争夺功劳的斗争，”泰谢拉说。“这当然会助长2028年总统提名的角逐。”回到佐治亚州，塔玛拉和詹姆斯在某些问题上可能存在分歧，但他们都希望民主党人在周二大获全胜。
"I think after the election we'll see a lot of fighting between the factions to claim credit," Teixeira said. " And that will of course feed into the jostling for the presidential nomination for 2028." Back in Georgia, Tamara and James may disagree on some things, but they both want Democrats to win big on Tuesday.
“在进步派政治方面，我是一个非常务实的人，”詹姆斯说。他想明确表示，他并不认同美国民主社会主义者（DSA）成员主张的一切。
"I'm a very pragmatic person when it comes to progressive politics," James said. He wants to make it clear he doesn't agree with everything DSA members espouse.
本届中期选举周期在很大程度上也取决于候选人素质——不仅是信息，还有传递信息的人。所以我问母子俩，他们心目中的“理想”民主党人是谁。
So much of this midterm cycle has also come down to candidate quality - not just the message but the messenger. So I asked both mother and son who their "ideal" Democrat is.
塔玛拉毫不犹豫地回答了乔恩·奥索夫，这位正在竞选连任的佐治亚州民主党参议员。这是一个共识点。他们都非常喜欢他们州的这位参议员。
Tamara instantly answered Jon Ossoff, the Democratic senator running for re-election in Georgia. It's a point of agreement. They both really like their Georgia senator.
奥索夫被许多人视为该党的一颗冉冉升起的新星。他争取的这个席位被《库克政治报告》定性为“倾向民主党”——分析人士认为，在一个2024年投给特朗普的摇摆州取得这一评级，是一项了不起的成就。
Ossoff is seen by many as a rising star of his party. The seat he is contesting is characterised by the Cook Political Report as "likely Democratic" - considered by analysts to be an impressive achievement in a swing state that voted for Trump in 2024.
“他知道如何与温和派共和党人、温和派民主党人和DSA成员对话，”塔玛拉说。“他不怕直言不讳……我欣赏他如此多地谈论腐败。”周三晚上，她在亚特兰大郊外参加了一场集会，与数千人一起为这位参议员加油助威，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马也在现场为民主党人造势。
"He knows how to speak to moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats, and members of the DSA," Tamara said. "He's not afraid to pull any punches… I appreciate how much he talks about corruption." On Wednesday night, she joined thousands of people just outside Atlanta for a rally to cheer on the senator as former President Barack Obama campaigned for Democrats.
当奥索夫拿起麦克风时，他详细阐述了他眼中特朗普政府以及美国政治、医疗保健和企业资金中的“腐败”问题。
And when Ossoff took the mic, he spoke at length about what he sees as "corruption" in the Trump administration and in American politics, healthcare and corporate money.
过去一周，我在佐治亚州听到选民表达这种担忧，不仅是在竞选集会上，在共和党占优和民主党占优的县的提前投票点也是如此。
And I heard this concern from voters in Georgia this past week, not just at the campaign rally, but at early voting sites in both Republican and Democratic counties.
“我们正面临一场腐败危机，”理查德·肖斯基在亚特兰大北部走出投票亭时说道，此前他刚提前投完票。这一议题似乎深深引起了选民共鸣，尽管白宫一再否认任何不当行为指控。
"We have a corruption crisis," said Richard Schosky as he walked out of the voting booth in north Atlanta, after casting his ballot early. It's an issue that seems to be resonating deeply with voters, although the White House has repeatedly denied any allegations of wrongdoing.
事实上，库克政治报告的丹恩表示：“腐败已成为本次大选的核心议题之一。”
In fact, Dann with the Cook Political Report says "corruption has become one of the central issues of this election".
不过她补充道：“民主党人要是认为他们在11月取得大胜就是对民主党的授权，那就太愚蠢了，”丹恩说。“他们几乎和共和党以及总统一样不受欢迎。”
Still, she added, "Democrats would be foolish to believe that a very good night for them in November is a mandate for the Democratic Party," said Dann. "They are as almost as unpopular as Republicans and the president."
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