
一场持续十年的生存危机,其任何阶段都从未轻松,即便形势似乎即将好转——尤其是当民主党人的希望已被反复点燃又反复落空之时。
No part of a rolling, decadelong existential crisis is ever easy, even when things seem on the cusp of going well — and especially when Democrats have had their hopes raised and dashed so many times.
“这有点似曾相识,”伊莱恩·卢里亚说。2018年,在唐纳德·特朗普首个任期的民主党中期选举浪潮中,她翻转了弗吉尼亚州第2国会选区;2020年,她以微弱优势守住该席位,助民主党组成微弱多数;2022年,随着共和党赢得微弱多数,她失去了该席位;如今,她正竞选夺回该席位。
“It’s a little bit of deja vu,” said Elaine Luria, who in 2018 flipped Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District in the Democratic midterm wave during Donald Trump’s first term, held onto it in a squeaker in 2020 to help make up a slim majority, lost it in 2022 as part of Republicans winning their own small majority, and is now running to get it back.
“如果你看看人们现在的感受,实地的活力——再次经历特朗普政府这场地狱般的折磨……人们渴望变革,”卢里亚说。“他们受不了了。”卢里亚在巴顿大学的小剧院舞台上表示,通往民主党多数席位的道路就经过这个选区。早期投票数据显示,民主党表现优于共和党。党内的活力正在沸腾。
“If you see how people are feeling today, the energy on the ground — the second time around living through this hell of the Trump administration … people want change,” Luria said. “They can’t take it anymore.”The path to a Democratic majority runs through this district, Luria said onstage in the small theater of Batten University. Early voting data suggests Democrats are outperforming Republicans. The energy within the party is bubbling.
据知情人士向CNN透露的内部民调,民主党领导人对中期选举似乎将如何收官已露出笑容,尽管他们将在周二结果陆续出炉时全力以赴。根据CNN的民调汇总,他们将以在通用国会选票上领先共和党9个百分点的优势进入中期选举。
Internal polls described to CNN have Democratic leaders already smiling about how the midterms seem to be ending, even as they will bare-knuckle through the results as they come in Tuesday. They will enter the midterms with a 9-point advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls.
“共和党人在收尾阶段谈论舞厅和屁股。这就是共和党陷入的混乱,”纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯说。这位民主党领袖周六与卢里亚同台,借此讽刺特朗普对白宫的改造及其对共和党人体格的品评。
“Republicans are closing talking about ballrooms and backsides. That’s the disarray the Republicans are in,” said New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader who joined Luria on Saturday, taking a swipe at Trump’s remake of the White House and his reviews of Republican physiques.
杰弗里斯讲话结束后,人群拿起标语牌等竞选物资陆续离场,准备再敲几扇门拉票。杰弗里斯则赶往机场,试图保住肖马里·菲格斯众议员的席位;今春最高法院做出裁决大幅削弱《投票权法案》后,共和党将矛头指向了菲格斯所在的阿拉巴马州选区。
After Jeffries spoke, the crowd filed out grabbing signs and other campaign material, heading out to knock a few more doors. Jeffries was heading to a plane to try to save the seat of Rep. Shomari Figures, whose Alabama district Republicans targeted after the Supreme Court’s decision hollowing out the Voting Rights Act this spring.
“将会有太多难以预测的竞争——我猜至少有20场,败者只能拿到49%——所以预测将非常困难,”弗吉尼亚州众议员鲍比·斯科特在离开卢里亚的集会时说,他形容自己情绪乐观但并不确定。
“There are going to be so many close races that you can’t predict — my guess is at least 20, the loser will get 49% — so it’s just going to be difficult to predict,” said Rep. Bobby Scott of Virginia as he left the Luria rally, describing himself as upbeat but unsure.
克里斯·范·霍伦参议员在2018年担任参议院民主党竞选机构的主席,当时该党在未能获得多数席位的情况下,成功保住了多项原本被预测会失去的参议院席位。马里兰州参议员表示,那些选举被情绪激动的民主党人所主导,他们谈论“抵抗”。今年,范·霍伦从新墨西哥州到乔治亚州再到新罕布什尔州进行竞选时,他说看到支持特朗普连任的选民出现了更广泛的转变,因为他们原本是因为特朗普承诺的低物价和结束对外战争而投票。
Sen. Chris Van Hollen chaired the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm in 2018, when the party successfully defended several Senate seats it had been projected to lose while falling short of a majority. The Maryland senator said those elections were dominated by distraught Democrats talking about “the resistance.”This year, as he’s been out campaigning from New Mexico to Georgia to New Hampshire, Van Hollen said, he’s been seeing a broader turn from those who backed Trump for a second term because they wanted the lower prices and end to foreign wars he promised.

“这一次的不同之处在于,特朗普在竞选时做出的那些帮助他在其联盟中赢得选票的承诺,如今他已经彻底翻转,”范·霍伦对CNN说。
“This time what’s different is on these promises that candidate Trump made that helped him win votes among his coalition, he’s done a 180,” Van Hollen told CNN.
前芝加哥市长、前国会议员拉姆·埃马纽埃尔曾帮助监督在乔治·W·布什第二任期内的中期选举大获全胜的竞选活动,他表示自己从选民那里感受到的氛围与2006年不同。他认为美国选民,尤其是黑人和拉美裔选民,对腐败感到愤怒,正在产生反弹。
Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor and congressman who helped oversee the campaigns that led to the midterms romp during George W. Bush’s second term, said the sense he’s getting from voters is different from 2006. He believes there is a backlash from Americans enraged by corruption, particularly among Black and Latino voters.
埃马纽埃尔说,2006年“情绪是失望、疲惫”。“而现在是愤怒和苦涩。这说明了动机的不同。”这并不意味着埃马纽埃尔在周二对民调未能捕捉到特朗普和共和党支持度的真实水平、以及投票率不会在各选区细分后带来意外,抱有完全的信心。
In 2006, “the emotion was disappointed, tired,” Emanuel said. “Here, it’s anger and bitterness. And that tells you something about the motivation.”That doesn’t mean Emanuel is going into Tuesday fully confident that the polls aren’t missing the level of support for Trump and Republicans and that turnout won’t bring surprises as the precinct breakdowns come in.
“我一直在反复确认,确保我们不是在自说自话。所以我到处走动,寻找任何迹象,‘请给我一个负面信号,’”伊曼纽尔说。对那些担心又要再次失望的民主党同僚,伊曼纽尔补充道:“你们也许是对的,但你们或许可以把这份精力用在更有成效的地方,而不是干坐着。发短信、发邮件、打电话、站到高速公路中间去。我不在乎你们做什么,只要用起来就行。坐在那里焦虑不安,什么有成效的事都做不成。”
“I keep checking to make sure we’re not all talking to each other. So I’m walking around looking for anything, ‘Please give me a negative,’” Emanuel said. To his fellow Democrats anxious that they’re about to be disappointed again, Emanuel added, “You might be right, but you may want to use that energy in a productive way rather than sitting around. Text, email, phone call, stand in the middle of the highway. I don’t care what you do, but just use it. There’s nothing productive getting done by being sitting there and being nervous.”
两党的竞选操盘手都对焦点小组中流露出的冷嘲热讽感到震惊,这种情绪横跨各个地域、人群、年龄和政治类别。对许多人来说,政治被视为内部人士的游戏,而这个世界越来越像富人和权贵的游乐场,其他人都被抛在后面,生活成本不断上涨,日子越来越糟。
Operatives in both parties have been stunned at the cynicism coming across in focus groups, spanning every geographic, demographic, age and political category. Politics is, to many, seen as a game for the insiders in a world that looks more and more like a playground for the rich and powerful, with everyone else left behind while their costs go up and their lives get worse.
候选人在竞选途中、在超市货架间、或在自己提前投票时,都听到了这些声音。愤怒、失望、被抛弃——这就是美国选民走向投票站时心中涌动的情绪。
The candidates are hearing it all on the trail, in supermarket aisles, or when showing up to vote early themselves. Anger, disappointment, abandonment — that’s what’s coursing through American voters as they head to the polls.
华盛顿州众议员苏珊·德尔贝尼是众议院民主党竞选委员会主席,她用“自信又偏执”来形容自己进入周二时的心态。
“Confident and paranoid” is how Washington state Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, described her mindset going into Tuesday.
在德尔贝尼看来,净赢三个席位、让本党成为多数党似乎是板上钉钉的事——但话说回来,她两年前也经历过选举的最后几天,当时多数党地位同样感觉触手可及。她说,偏执来自于她能看到特朗普试图干预选举结果的种种方式。
Netting the three seats that would put her party in the majority seems a given to DelBene — but then again, she went through the final days of the election two years ago, when the majority also felt in reach. The paranoia, she says, comes from the ways she can see Trump trying to interfere with the election results.

德尔贝内列举了她在竞选途中进行的各种交谈,从俄亥俄州一个民主党认为能够守住的选区的提前投票中心,到亚利桑那州一个民主党希望翻红的选区的“送餐到家”服务点。她说,在每一站,经济之痛都清晰可感。在每一站,她都试图让选民相信,民主党已准备好拿出一些实实在在的解决方案。
DelBene ticked through conversations she’s been having on the trail, from an early voting center in an Ohio district that Democrats believe they can hold to a Meals on Wheels location in an Arizona district they are hoping to flip. At every stop, she says, the economic pain is palpable. At every stop, she tries to get voters to believe that Democrats are ready to come in with some real solutions.

克利夫兰市长贾斯汀·比布在上周提前投票时表示,他与一位女性交谈过,对方抱怨她的食品杂货和处方药价格都上涨了。她带着全家人一起去投票站。对她来说,那似乎是唯一能做的事。但比布说,他担心那些因大胜在望而欣喜若狂的民主党人会误解她和其他人为什么还要再给投票一次机会。
Voting early last week, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb said he talked to a woman who was lamenting how the price of her groceries and prescriptions have gone up. She brought her whole family with her to the polling place. To her, that seemed like the only thing to do. But Bibb said he’s worried Democrats gleeful about big wins are going to misunderstand why she and others bothered to give voting one more chance.
比布说,他理解国内存在的愤世嫉俗情绪。他希望其他民主党人也能理解,而且他已经开始与同僚市长组织起来,研究如何在结果如他所愿出炉时,施压华盛顿特区做出回应。
He understands the cynicism out in the country, Bibb said. He hopes other Democrats do too, and he’s already starting to organize with fellow mayors on how to press Washington, DC, to respond if and when the results come in as he’s hoping.
“我们不能只靠听证会和弹劾程序就错失良机,”比布说。“民众需要看到他们的钱包鼓起来。”范霍伦表示,在谁都还没开始盘算委员会主席职位之前,首先必须真正赢下选举。这位参议员在全国各地奔走竞选,演讲结尾常讲述2017年弗吉尼亚州众议院代表选举的故事。最终,控制权由一个席位决定,而该席位的选举打成平局,根据州法律通过抽签决定——当时是从碗里抽取纸条。共和党赢了。
“We can’t miss this moment with just hearings and impeachment proceedings,” Bibb said. “People need to see their pocketbooks improve.”Before anyone starts counting committee chairmanships, Van Hollen said, first they need to actually win. As he stumps around the country, the senator often ends by telling the story of the 2017 races for the Virginia House of Delegates. At the end, control was decided by one seat, and the election of that seat was a tie, leaving it decided under state law by a game of chance —in the case, drawing slips of paper out of a bowl. Republicans won.
“我不会依赖这些民调,”范霍伦说。“我的呼吁是:不要掉以轻心,不要让控制权取决于一场竞选。”这对选民、候选人和领导人来说都很难做到。德尔贝内表示,她在竞选冲刺阶段一直在做大量的鼓动谈话。
“I would not rely on these polls,” Van Hollen said. “My plea is: Don’t take anything for granted, don’t let control come down to one campaign.”That can be hard for the voters and candidates and leaders alike. DelBene says she’s been spending the final stretch of the campaign doing a lot of pep talks.
“这是一段非常紧张的时期。大家都很疲惫。他们一直在极其努力地工作,”德尔贝内说。“我和很多人交谈,只是想说:‘坚持下去。’选举有一点好处:它有一个结束日期。”
“It’s a very stressful time. Folks are tired. They’ve been working incredibly hard,” DelBene said. “I have a lot of conversations with folks just to say, ‘Keep going.’ The one thing about an election is: There is an end date.”