在周二的中期选举前夕，民主党人正咬着指甲、辗转反侧，担心是否又将被迫经历一场特朗普时代屡见不鲜的选举：看似势均力敌的竞争，最终似乎不可避免地落入共和党囊中。所有基本面和民调都指向一场可能的大胜，而且是压倒性的大胜，但在目睹美国人令人震惊地首次选出唐纳德·特朗普、经历他的“大谎言”、又在短短两年前见证他历史性卷土重来之后，没人能确信这个混乱、腐败与残酷的时代或许终于开始滑向历史的垃圾堆。我们以为曾站在同样的十字路口，结局却不尽人意。
Ahead of Tuesday’s midterms, Democrats are biting their nails and enduring sleepless nights, wondering whether they will be forced to endure yet another election that has so often characterized the Trump era: close races that seem inevitably to go to the Republicans. All the fundamentals and polls indicate a possible blowout and a big one, but after watching Americans shockingly elect Donald Trump the first time, live through his Big Lie and witness his historic comeback only two years ago, no one can feel confident that this era of chaos, corruption and cruelty might finally be beginning its descent into the dustbin of history. We thought we were here before, and it didn’t end well.
即便如此，仍有理由抱持希望，哪怕你假设民调再次低估了共和党选民对其领袖的热情。尽管过去十年里民调屡有偏差，但这种偏差并未像在特朗普参选的竞选中那样，在中期选举中显现。那些年份里，民调颇为精准。本周期民主党在所有补选和特别选举中表现优异，虽非铁律，却不得不视为一个积极信号。
There are reasons to be hopeful, though, even if you assume that the polls are underestimating Republican enthusiasm for their leaders once again. While there have been misses in the polling over this past decade, it hasn’t manifested in midterms as it has in the races with Trump on the ballot. In those years, the polling was pretty much on the money. Democrats have done very well in all the off-year and special elections this cycle, and although that’s no guarantee, it has to be considered a good sign.
最大的不同在于，特朗普的支持率徘徊在30%左右——一个致命数字，而他主政期间物价高企，且发动了一场针对伊朗的选择性战争，这两者都是他承诺若当总统绝不会发生的事。他2020年唯一输掉的那场选举，源于他对唯一面临的危机——新冠疫情——的管理失误，而这第二个任期巩固了许多原本倾向于给他信任红利的选民的印象：他根本不知所措。
The big difference this time is that Trump’s approval rating is hovering close to 30% a lethal number, and he has presided over a high cost of living and a war of choice with Iran, both things he promised would never happen if he were president. The one election he lost in 2020 was the result of his mismanagement of the only crisis he faced, the Covid-19 pandemic, and this second term has solidified the impression among many voters who were inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt anyway, that he simply doesn’t know what he is doing.
一个能让民主党人在这最后几天里真正感到欣慰的迹象，是特朗普在竞选路上的表现。说这位80岁老人“慢了一拍”简直是轻描淡写。当然，他风风火火地跑遍了所有摇摆州，甚至试图在本不需要他亲临就能动员选民投票的地方鼓舞士气。但他那招标志性的“穿插式”演讲，在每一站都在崩塌。
One sign that should give Democrats some real comfort in these last couple of days is Trump’s performance on the campaign trail. To say the 80-year-old has lost a step is an understatement. Sure, he barnstormed through all the battleground states and even attempted to shore up enthusiasm in places that should not need his presence to get out the vote. But his patented “weave” is unraveling at every stop.
特朗普开始在怪诞的道路上一条道走到黑，大谈男性身体，程度真正达到了离谱的地步，似乎以为只要他训练有素的集会观众会例行公事般地为他说的任何话欢呼，这套说辞就是制胜法宝。他最近的
Trump has taken to doubling down on the weirdness, going on about men’s bodies to a truly bizarre degree, being under the impression that because his trained rally goers will ritualistically cheer anything he says, this is a winning message. His recent