无论你怎么算账,工党预算中确实为国防拨出了一些额外资金,但根本问题依然存在:社会保障仍然压过国家安全。在俄罗斯威胁日益加剧、乌克兰战争持续暴露现代冲突残酷现实的当下,这是在拿英国的未来进行一场危险的赌博。
There was, depending how you do the accounts, some extra money for defence in Labour’s Budget, but the fundamental problem remains: social security continues to trump national security. At a time when the threat from Russia is growing and the war in Ukraine continues to expose the brutal realities of modern conflict, this is a dangerous gamble with Britain’s future.
约翰·希利承诺填补国防投资计划中由基尔·斯塔默爵士留下的47亿英镑资金缺口。这值得欢迎,但不应被视为任何超出权宜之计的东西。填补缺口不等于建立可信的国防。
John Healey has promised to plug the £4.7bn hole in the defence investment plan left unfunded by Sir Keir Starmer. That is welcome, but it should not be regarded as anything more than a stopgap. Filling a hole is not the same as building a credible defence.
人们期待在这项承诺之外还有额外资金——如果我们要在当今危险的世界中确保国家生存,这至关重要。然而,关键问题仍未得到回答:还将提供多少资金,钱从哪里来,何时能到达前线?我们的武装部队不能靠承诺、财政部的会计花招或政治辞令来打仗。他们需要装备、弹药、人员以及维持战争的工业能力。
There are expectations of additional funding beyond that commitment – and this is vitally necessary if we are to have assurance of our national survival in today’s dangerous world. However, the crucial questions remain unanswered: how much more will be provided, where will the money come from, and when will it reach the front line? Our Armed Forces cannot fight on promises, Treasury accounting tricks or political rhetoric. They need equipment, ammunition, personnel and the industrial capacity to sustain a war.
保守党要求承诺到2030年将GDP的3%用于国防,并主张如果希利在这个问题上含糊其辞而不是为这一目标提供适当资金,他就应该辞职。让我们明确一点:这一目标尚未达到,也没有实现的计划。仅2030年一年,实现该目标就需要额外110亿英镑。政府对北约盟友的长期承诺是到2035年达到3.5%。关于资金和时间的下一次决定预计将在明年的支出审查中做出。但英国面临的威胁不会礼貌地等待财政部完成其计算。
The Conservatives have demanded a commitment to spend 3 per cent of GDP on defence by 2030, arguing that Mr Healey should resign if he fudges the issue rather than properly funding that target. Let us be clear: that target has not been reached and there is no plan to do so. Achieving it would require an additional £11bn in 2030 alone. The Government’s longer-term pledge to our Nato allies is to reach 3.5 per cent by 2035. The next decision on funds and timings is expected in next year’s Spending Review. But the threats facing Britain will not politely wait for the Treasury to finish its calculations.
沃洛德米尔·泽连斯基以他一贯的直率提出了这一点。在预算公布前夕,这位乌克兰总统在接受《太阳报》采访时敦促希利不要推迟增加国防开支。
Volodymyr Zelensky has made that point with characteristic directness. On the eve of the Budget, the Ukrainian president urged Mr Healey not to delay increases in defence spending in an interview with The Sun.
“英国到底能不能信任俄罗斯?”他问道。“如果不能,国防就必须成为百分之百的优先事项。”这一逻辑很难反驳。泽连斯基总统用了近五年时间应对弗拉基米尔·普京侵略的后果。他比大多数人都更清楚,威慑并非建立在意图声明之上,而是建立在军事实力、工业韧性以及捍卫国家的可证明意愿之上。
“Can the United Kingdom trust Russia or not?” he asked. “If not, defence needs to be 100 per cent the priority.”It is difficult to argue with the logic. President Zelensky has spent nearly five years confronting the consequences of Vladimir Putin’s aggression. He knows better than most that deterrence is not built on declarations of intent. It is built on military strength, industrial resilience and the demonstrable willingness to defend your country.
希利本人曾在围绕资金的争执中辞去基尔·斯塔默爵士政府的国防大臣一职,指责财政部不愿提供所需的资金。因此,他随后承诺填补47亿英镑的缺口就显得尤为重要。然而,如果政府继续将国防视为一个需要加以控制的问题,而非一项需要投入资金的国家优先事项,根本性的危机仍将存在。
Mr Healey himself resigned as Sir Keir Starmer’s defence secretary amid a row over funding, accusing the Treasury of being unwilling to provide the money required. His subsequent promise to fill the £4.7bn gap is therefore particularly significant. Yet if the Government continues to treat defence as a problem to be contained rather than a national priority to be funded, the underlying crisis will remain.
英国的困境不仅在于我们花多少钱,还在于我们从中得到了什么。多年的投资不足给我们的部队战备状态、弹药储备以及英国工业能否以重大冲突所要求的速度补充装备的能力留下了严重疑问。现在宣布的资金不会立即生产出坦克、导弹、无人机或训练有素的士兵。这些能力需要数年时间才能发展、采购和整合。把问题拖延到明年的支出审查,只会加剧延误。无所作为也是有后果的。
Britain’s predicament is not simply about how much we spend, but what we get for it. Years of underinvestment have left serious questions about the readiness of our forces, the availability of munitions and the ability of British industry to replenish equipment at the speed a major conflict would demand. Money announced now will not instantly produce tanks, missiles, drones or trained soldiers. These capabilities take years to develop, procure and integrate. Kicking the can down the road to next year’s Spending Review adds to the delay. Doing nothing has an effect.
与此同时,俄罗斯正在对乌克兰发动战争,并对西方利益推行更广泛的恐吓、破坏和扰乱行动。未来对北约的任何威胁的确切时间和规模都无法确知。但乌克兰的教训是明确无误的:准备太晚的代价是以生命、领土和国家主权来衡量的。打仗的代价也远高于威慑。
Meanwhile, Russia is waging war against Ukraine and pursuing a broader campaign of intimidation, sabotage and disruption against Western interests. The precise timing and scale of any future threat to Nato cannot be known with certainty. But the lesson from Ukraine is unmistakable: the price of preparing too late is measured in lives, territory and national sovereignty. Fighting a war also costs much more than deterrence.
英国政府有理由辩称,它在公共支出、福利和生活成本方面面临艰难抉择。谁也不应该假装这些压力微不足道。但国家安全是政府赖以存在的根基。如果国家无法保护其公民、基础设施和自由免受外部侵略,国民保健制度(NHS)或福利国家就没有未来。
The Government will rightly argue that it faces difficult choices over public spending, welfare and the cost of living. No one should pretend that these pressures are insignificant. But national security is the foundation on which the very existence of the government rests. There is no future for the NHS or the welfare state if the country cannot protect its citizens, infrastructure and freedom from external aggression.
国防开支也并非只是从国内优先事项中转移出来的资金。如果引导得当,它支撑着技术性工作岗位、先进制造业、技术创新以及英国在危机中所需的工业基础。
Nor is defence spending simply money diverted from domestic priorities. Properly directed, it supports skilled jobs, advanced manufacturing, technological innovation and the industrial base that Britain will need in a crisis.
为国防投资计划(DIP)提供资金,看来是一项显著成就。但国防投资计划还远远不够。除非它成为重建英国军事实力的可信、资金充足且透明的计划的一部分,否则它就有可能沦为国防体系中又一次权宜之计——这一体系长期以来一直被要求以过少的资源承担过多的任务。英国需要明确的时间表、经过充分成本核算的承诺,以及能够切实提供国家所需兵力的国防预算,而不仅仅是部长们能够应付的数字。
Funding the defence investment plan (DIP) is, it seems, a notable achievement. But the DIP is not enough by a long chalk. Unless it forms part of a credible, properly funded and transparent plan to rebuild Britain’s military capability, it risks becoming another temporary fix in a defence system that has been asked to do too much with too little for too long. Britain needs a clear timetable, properly costed commitments and a defence budget that delivers the forces our country requires, not merely the figures ministers can accommodate.
但愿普京没有在密切注视。他明白一个认真捍卫自身的国家与一个仍在争论是否承担得起自卫费用的国家之间的区别。
Let us hope Putin is not watching too closely. He will understand the difference between a country that is serious about defending itself and one that is still arguing about whether it can afford to do so.
不要搞错:我们不仅当下没有国家安全,甚至还没有实现国家安全的计划。
Make no mistake: not only do we not have national security today, we do not yet even have a plan for achieving it.