字号·· | 护眼
彭博社

英国预算案中国防开支提及次数为二战以来最多Defense Gets Most Mentions in UK Budget Since World War Two

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

财政大臣约翰·希利的首份预算案包含一系列旨在缓解生活成本的小额举措,包括由银行买单、为大多数家庭在冬季能源账单上带来微薄节省的措施。

Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s first budget contained a series of small measures to help with the cost of living, including minor savings for most households for winter energy bills, paid for by banks.

与其前任的两份预算案相比,这份预算案显得低调得多。前任的预算案将税收负担推向二战后的高位,以资助工党政府的公共服务和投资优先事项。

It was a significantly lower-key affair than the two budgets of his predecessor, which put the tax burden on course for a post-World War II high in order to fund the Labour government’s public service and investment priorities.

希利坚称,在即将出台的十年计划以及福利和支出审查中,将在国防等领域做出更大的决策。在此期间,我们通过八张关键图表来探寻希利预算案的真实含义。

Healey insists bigger decisions are coming in areas such as defense in the upcoming 10-year plan and welfare and spending reviews. In the meantime, we hunt for the real meaning of Healey’s budget in eight key charts.

根据彭博社对议会记录的分析,希利在预算案中提及国防的次数超过二战以来任何一位财政大臣。这甚至包括20世纪50年代初朝鲜战争重整军备预算案,以及2003年伊拉克战争入侵三周后戈登·布朗的预算案。

Healey mentioned defense more than any other Chancellor in a budget since World War II, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of parliamentary transcripts. That includes even the Korean war rearmament budget at the start of the 1950s, and Gordon Brown’s budget three weeks after the Iraq invasion in 2003.

这位财政大臣因资金问题在今年早些时候辞去国防大臣一职,导致时任首相基尔·斯塔默倒台。他承诺到本世纪末将军费开支增至经济产出的3%。

The chancellor, whose resignation as defense secretary over funding earlier in the year contributed to the downfall of then-prime minister, Keir Starmer, pledged to ramp up military spending to 3% of economic output by the end of this decade.

然而,他将如何为这笔增资买单的细节留待明年的支出审查决定。在此期间,他通过重新分配部分资本支出,填补了今年早些时候国防投资计划中的缺口,三年成本达47亿英镑。

However, he left the details about how to pay to pay for the increase to next year’s spending review. In the meantime, he plugged a gap in defense investment plans from earlier in the year by reallocating some capital spending, costing £4.7 billion over three years.

在推迟重大决策、宣布小额举措的同时,根据彭博社对财政部“红皮书”文件的分析,希利的预算案所含措施数量超过2010年以来任何一份预算案。然而,每项措施的平均规模(占GDP的百分比)仅为以往的四分之一。

Deferring bigger decisions, while announcing smaller ones, Healey’s budget contained more measures than any other since 2010, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of Treasury Red Book documents. However, the average size of each measure, as a percentage of GDP, was only a quarter as large.

英国主要商业团体对这份预算案表示不满,指出其中缺乏支持企业的措施。根据彭博社对“2030繁荣联盟”智库汇编数据的分析,这些团体在预算案前提出的诉求中只有少数得到满足,该数据详细列出了商业团体和企业此前呼吁采取的措施。

Top UK business groups gave the budget a thumbs-down, calling out the lack of measures to support companies. Only a handful of their pre-budget requests were met, according to a Bloomberg analysis of data compiled by the 2030 Prosperity Alliance think tank, which details the measures that business groups and companies had called for.

最常见的诉求包括降低商业税率——一项不受欢迎的商业房产税——不再进一步增税,以及减免国民保险缴款。

The most common requests included lower business rates — an unpopular commercial property tax — no further tax rises, and relief from national insurance contributions.

尽管游说团体提出的要求往往高于他们预期能得到的,但结果仍显示,里夫斯的预算案未能满足他们的期望。

While lobby groups often ask for more than they expect to get, the results show how Healey’s budget still left them wanting.

已宣布的一些亲商措施包括对零售、酒店和休闲行业的企业减税,以及向国家财富基金和英国商业银行追加数十亿英镑资金。

Some of the pro-business measures that were announced included a tax cut for businesses in the retail, hospitality and leisure industries, and billions more for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank.

里夫斯宣布,她将向英国税务海关总署提供资金,“以加强合规管理,并赋予其更强有力的权力,向那些明显有能力支付却无视多次联系的人追缴欠税”。虽然这句话听起来相当技术官僚,但它是这份预算案中最大的增收项目。按六年合计,英国税务海关总署缩小税收缺口的措施筹集的资金最多——总计近80亿英镑(107亿美元)。

Healey announced that he’s giving HMRC, the UK tax authority, funding “to improve compliance and stronger powers to collect overdue tax from those who can clearly afford to pay but ignore repeated contact.”While that line sounds quite technocratic, it was the biggest revenue-raiser in the budget. HMRC measures to close the tax gap raise the most money when summed over the six years — almost £8 billion ($10.7 billion) in total.

这远远超过银行附加税上调带来的15亿英镑收入,而后者仅实施15个月。最大的支出项目是100英镑的家庭能源补贴,合计26亿英镑。

That’s a lot more than the £1.5 billion from the bank surcharge increase, which is only in force for 15 months. The biggest cost is the £100 household energy payment, coming to £2.6 billion.

昨天的预算案总体上是一份派发福利的预算,为家庭提供了41亿英镑的“喘息空间”。然而,增税措施将从明年开始生效——银行、博彩公司、房东和储户首当其冲——而2028年之后的支出计划如此紧张,以至于许多经济学家怀疑它们能否兑现。

Yesterday’s budget was mostly a giveaway, delivering £4.1 billion of “breathing space” to households. However, tax increases kick in from next year — banks, gaming firms, landlords and savers bear the brunt — and spending plans beyond 2028 are so tight that many economists doubt they can be delivered.

总体而言,根据预算责任办公室(OBR)的数据,这些措施将使今年政府借款增加76亿英镑,但到2031-32财年将转为减少117亿英镑。税收预计将在2031年底达到国内生产总值(GDP)的39%,创历史新高。

Overall, the measures add £7.6 billion to government borrowing this year, but that turns into a £11.7 billion reduction by 2031-32, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. Taxes are set to reach a record 39% of GDP by the end of 2031.

OBR的可支配收入数据显示了民众为何感到经济拮据:预计本届议会期间,人均实际家庭可支配收入增长将是20世纪50年代以来第二低的水平。

The OBR’s disposable income figures show why people are feeling the pinch: forecast growth in real household disposable income per person in the current parliament is set to be the second-lowest since the 1950s.

前财政研究所所长保罗·约翰逊在X平台发文表示:“这是一个令人难以置信的糟糕十年。过去每年增长2%以上,现在10年才增长1%。”智库决议基金会也批评称,“完全未能将援助精准投向最需要的人群。”根据其测算,到明年底,最贫困的半数家庭从生活成本支持中平均将获得158英镑,仅比最富裕的半数家庭多14英镑。

“What an unbelievably awful decade,” former head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Paul Johnson, said in a post on X. “It used to grow by 2%+ every year, not 1% in 10 years.”The Resolution Foundation think tank also criticized “a complete failure to target help at those who need it most.”According to their calculations, the poorest half of households will gain £158 on average from cost of living support by the end of next year, just £14 more than the richest half.

OBR将今年经济增长预测略微上调至1.2%——但高盛集团前首席经济学家吉姆·奥尼尔在接受Times Radio采访时表示,他认为预测本应进一步上调,并称自己“感到困惑”,因为该预测暗示今年剩余时间将出现负增长。

The OBR slightly upgraded its forecast for economic growth this year to 1.2% — but former Goldman Sachs Group chief economist Jim O’Neill told Times Radio he thinks it should’ve gone further, saying he’s “baffled” because the forecast implies negative growth for the remainder of the year.

奥尼尔表示,他认为全年增长将“接近2%”,并补充道:“这简直就像OBR完全没有关注过去三个月的数据。”OBR向彭博社表示,其在国家统计局(ONS)上调第二季度GDP增长数据、以及7月和8月强劲数据发布之前,就已敲定预测。OBR下调了明年的增长预测,并上调了通胀预期。

O’Neill said he thinks growth for the year will be “somewhere not far off 2%,” adding: “It is almost like the OBR hasn’t paid any attention to the past three months’ worth of data.”The OBR finalized its forecast before second-quarter GDP growth was revised up by the Office of National Statistics, and before strong July and August data was released, the fiscal watchdog told Bloomberg. The OBR downgraded next year’s growth forecast, and increased its expectation for inflation.

这份预算案出台于伯纳姆执政的第101天。根据彭博社对自由民主党同僚、民调专家马克·帕克汇编的民调数据的分析,迄今为止,伯纳姆已帮助工党录得70多年来在非大选期间更换首相的政党所享有的最大人气涨幅之一。该数据可追溯至1955年。

The budget came on the 101st day of Burnham’s administration. He’s so far helped Labour record one of the biggest popularity boosts enjoyed by a party that has switched prime ministers outside of a general election in over 70 years — according to Bloomberg’s analysis of polling data compiled by Liberal Democrat peer and poll expert Mark Pack that stretches back to 1955.

但在“更多共同点”组织的卢克·特里尔主持的一个焦点小组中,选民对这份预算案的反应“褒贬不一”。特里尔表示,能源补贴和银行税很受欢迎,并强化了伯纳姆“懂行且正努力帮忙”的印象。

But the budget got a “mixed reaction” from voters in a focus group conducted by Luke Tryl of More in Common. The energy payment and bank tax were popular, and reinforce the idea that Burnham “gets it and is trying to help,” Tryl said.

这与他们预算前的民调一致,该民调显示,人们更希望优先保持劳动人民的低税负,而非改善医疗体系,这与上次大选以来的情况相比出现了逆转。但他焦点小组的成员也在问:实质内容在哪里?

It matched their pre-budget polling showing that people want to prioritize keeping taxes on working people low more than improving the health system, a reversal since the last general election. But his focus group members were also asking: where’s the beef?

阅读媒体原文 ↗