
想在钱紧手头时安抚要求苛刻的孩子?试试“自选糖果”。英国财政大臣约翰·希利在其首份预算案中正是这么做的。他推出了98项新政策措施——许多小甜头,价格合理。上一次年度预算案包含如此多条目还是2010年,而这一批措施的平均成本要低得多(占国内生产总值的百分比)。
Looking for a way to placate demanding kids while money’s tight? Try pick’n’mix. John Healey has done exactly that in his first budget as Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer. He delivered 98 new policy measures — lots of little sweet treats, at a reasonable price. The last time there were so many items in this yearly event was back in 2010, and this latest batch costs a lot less on average (as a percentage of gross domestic product).
他需要哄住并赶紧打发走两位挑剔的“顾客”:后座议员和债券市场。我不确定当“糖分冲劲”明年过去后,他们是否还会保持满意。
He had two fussy customers that he needed to keep quiet and hustle out of the shop: backbenchers and bond markets. I’m not certain that they will stay happy when the sugar rush wears off next year.
债券市场目前对英国财政缓冲空间降至150亿英镑(约200亿美元)这一标题数字反应平静。如果说有什么不同,债务管理办公室宣布2026-27财年将发行2506亿英镑金边债券,仅略高于市场预期的2496亿英镑,这比希利所说的任何内容影响都大。
Bond markets have reacted calmly for now to the headline number of the UK’s fiscal headroom falling to £15 billion ($20 billion). If anything, the Debt Management Office’s announcement that £250.6 billion of gilts would be sold in 2026-27, only marginally more than expectations of £249.6 billion, made more of a difference than anything Healey said.
与此同时,执政的工党议员并未公开表达失望,尽管预算案中针对困难群体的最大举措——向2000万户家庭发放100英镑以助支付能源账单——仅耗资26亿英镑。这只是保守党在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后在类似支持上花费的562亿英镑的一小部分。总体而言,本次预算案中帮助英国人应对生活成本危机的援助总额仅为41亿英镑。
The ruling Labour Party’s lawmakers, meanwhile, aren’t vocally disappointed, even though the budget’s biggest measure for the hard up — £100 to 20 million households to help with energy bills — will cost only £2.6 billion. That’s a small fraction of the £56.2 billion that the Conservatives spent on similar support after Russia’s Ukraine invasion. All told, assistance in this budget for Britons struggling with the cost of living amounts to just £4.1 billion.
债券交易员和工党下议员真正关心的是财政大臣将如何筹钱。削减什么?征税什么?银业界松了一口气,因为希利仅在现有3%的利润附加税上再增加3个百分点,且固定期限为15个月。这仅筹集15亿英镑,少于政府计划在未来五年通过向大型网约车运营商征收销售税所获得的收入。
The real concern for both bond traders and Labour members of Parliament was how the chancellor would raise money. What would get cut? What would be taxed? Banks are relieved that Healey added only three percentage points on to an existing 3% surcharge on their profits, and for a fixed period of 15 months. That raises only £1.5 billion, less than the government intends to get over the next five years by applying sales tax to large minicab operators.
让希利五年预算估算实现平衡的最大贡献,来自提高税务征收效率。他希望这能在截至2031-32财年的期间内,筹集略低于80亿英镑的收入。预算案承诺要“让每个人都缴纳应缴税款”,包括那些“反复拒绝联系”的人。别把英国税务海关总署寄来的信扔进垃圾桶。
The biggest contribution to getting Healey’s five-year estimates to add up comes from making tax collectors efficient. That, he hopes, will raise slightly less than £8 billion over the years to 2031-32. The budget promises to “make everyone pay what they owe,” including those who’ve “avoided repeated contact.”Don’t chuck any letters from HM Revenue & Customs in the bin.
无论如何,任何新的增收措施,与希利单纯靠“不作为”就能获得的额外收入相比,都显得微不足道。即便通胀飙升——根据预算责任办公室的数据,今年通胀将平均达到3.1%——所得税起征点依然维持冻结。去年,预算责任办公室估计,仅这一项到2030-31财年就将额外带来670亿英镑收入,因为薪资上涨会把更多人推入更高税率档。如果工资增长继续跟上通胀,这一数字还会进一步增加。
Any new revenue-raising measures are rendered insignificant, anyway, by how much more Healey will be getting from simply doing nothing. Even as inflation soars — according to the Office of Budget Responsibility, it will now average 3.1% this year — income-tax thresholds are staying frozen. Last year, the OBR estimated that this alone would raise an additional £67 billion in 2030-31 as salaries rise. And that will rise again if wage growth keeps pace with inflation, dragging more people into higher tax brackets.
然而,考虑到英国财政捉襟见肘、债务成本飙升,这些只能解决一时之需。希利需要削减开支。其中,150亿英镑国防投资计划的缺口,本意是用削减其他部门预算腾出的30亿英镑来填补。我们不知道会削减哪些部门,也不清楚这对公共服务意味着什么。希利在演讲中称,工党是公共服务的政党。我们马上就会见分晓。
And yet, this all gets you only get you so far given Britain’s overstretched finances and soaring debt costs. Healey needs cuts. A hole in the £15 billion defense-investment program, for one, is meant to be filled with £3bn that comes from reducing other departments’ budgets. We don’t know which ones, and what that will mean for public services. Labour is the party of public services, Healey said in his speech. We’re about to find out what that means.
最关键的决定被推迟到了明年的支出审查。这位财政大臣——曾因支出限制辞去国防大臣职务、导致基尔·斯塔默倒台——表示,政府承诺到2030年将军费开支提高到GDP的3%,到2035年提高到3.5%。预算责任办公室估计,如果国防开支达到该水平,而医疗、学校和海外发展援助支出按通胀同比增长,那么所有其他部门每年实际可用资金将减少2.6%。
That biggest call has been postponed to next year’s spending review. The chancellor — who brought down Keir Starmer by resigning as defense secretary over spending restrictions — said the government is committed to raising military budgets to 3% of GDP by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035. The OBR estimates that if defense spending reaches that level, while spending on health, schools and overseas development jumps in line with inflation, then all the other departments will have 2.6% less money each year in real terms.
这还没算上首相安迪·伯纳姆承诺设立一个全新的、推定耗资巨大的国家护理服务,接管对老年人的照护。他坚称“国家安全不能以牺牲社会保障为代价”,这番言论日后可能会让他自食其果。
And that doesn’t even account for Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s promise of a brand-new, presumably expensive, National Care Service to take over tending to the elderly. His insistence that national security “can’t come at the expense of social security” may come back to haunt him.
也可能不会。财政大臣提醒下议院:“首相和我都说过,我们将削减福利开支,而且会以工党的方式去做。”这实质上意味着,两人承诺设法让他们那些温和左派的后座议员接受削减开支。
Or perhaps not. The chancellor reminded the Commons that “the prime minister and I have both said we will bring down the welfare bill, and we will do it in a Labour way.”What that means, essentially, is a promise to Britain that the pair intend to somehow get their soft-left backbenchers on board with the cuts.
斯塔默当年胆敢尝试同样的做法,引发了党内哗变,这也是他政治生涯终结的另一原因。福利开支今年再度跃升至3530亿英镑,凸显了任务的艰巨。英国财政责任办公室(OBR)预计,到2031/32财年,这一数字将升至4310亿英镑,主要由医疗和养老金支出推高。
Starmer provoked mutinies when he dared try the same, another reason for his political demise. That the welfare bill has jumped yet again this year to £353 billion shows the scale of the task. The OBR reckons it will rise to £431 billion in 2031/32, driven primarily by spending on health and pensioners.
希利已在上个月的工党大会上透露了这场关乎工党灵魂之战可能动用的修辞火力,他说:“福利应当是通往工作、更广泛参与、更美好生活的桥梁,而不应是让人无法摆脱的陷阱。”对最左翼的工党议员来说,这剂药方可能太苦了。唐宁街将寄希望于,一篮子微小而甜头的施政惠民措施,能说服其他议员,在下届大选到来时,他们在选民门口仍能赢得倾听。
Healey has already given us a clue of the rhetorical artillery likely to be deployed in that battle for Labour’s soul by saying at the party’s conference last month that “benefits should be a bridge to work, to wider participation, to a better life, not a trap that people can't escape.”That may be too bitter a draft for the most left-wing Labour MPs. Downing Street will hope that many of the others can be persuaded that a basket of small, sweet giveaways will get them a hearing at voters’ doorsteps when the next election arrives.
与此同时,债券交易员会注意到,预算案预测2026-27和2027-28财年将额外借款63亿英镑和70亿英镑,随后在截至2031-32财年的最后三年分别减少26亿、35亿和93亿英镑。英国政府迟早得“吃掉那些蔬菜”——也就是不得不面对艰难的财政抉择。
Meanwhile, bond traders will note that the budget forecasts £6.3 billion and £7 billion of additional borrowing in 2026-27 and 2027-28, then reduces it by £2.6bn, £3.5bn and £9.3bn in the final three years to 2031-32. At some point, the UK government is going to have to eat its vegetables.
“挑挑拣拣”的问题当然在于,这并不怎么营养。晚餐还没上桌,先大吃甜食是危险的。
The problem with pick-n-mix is, of course, that it’s not exactly nutritious. It’s dangerous to gorge on sweets when dinner’s still to come.