东京——日本央行行长植田和男于周五强调，尽管潜在通胀大致符合2%的目标，但该央行认为尚未可持续、稳定地实现其价格稳定目标。
TOKYO -- Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda on Friday emphasized that while underlying inflation is broadly consistent with 2%, the central bank does not believe its price stability goal has yet been achieved sustainably and stably.
“重要的是以可持续和稳定方式实现2%的通胀目标。我们认为尚未达到那个阶段，”植田在日本央行决定将无担保隔夜拆借利率维持在1.25%后举行的新闻发布会上表示。
"What is important is to achieve the 2% inflation target in a sustainable and stable manner. We do not believe we have reached that point yet," Ueda said during a news conference following the BOJ's decision to hold its uncollateralized overnight call rate at 1.25%.
此前，市场普遍预计该行在6月和9月加息后会按兵不动。投票结果出现分歧，该行九名董事会成员中的一人投票赞成将利率上调至1.50%。
Markets had widely expected the bank to stay pat following hikes in June and September. The vote was split, with one of the bank's nine board members voting to raise rates to 1.50%.
日本央行目前认为，潜在通胀水平总体与其2%的价格稳定目标相符。植田表示，这是多种因素结合的结果，例如日本央行前所未有的货币宽松政策的影响、全球通胀，以及面对劳动力短缺的企业更强烈的工资和价格设定行为。他补充说，用于衡量潜在通胀的许多指标已升至2%左右。
The BOJ now sees underlying inflation at a level generally consistent with its 2% price stability target. Ueda said it was thanks to a combination of factors, such as the effects of the BOJ's unprecedented monetary easing, global inflation, as well as stronger wage and price-setting behavior by firms facing labor shortages. He added that many indicators used to gauge underlying inflation had risen to around 2%.
不过，植田重申了通胀上行风险，称日本央行需要密切关注潜在通胀可能升至2%以上的风险。他拒绝正式宣布已达成该目标，并表示：“这不是发布胜利宣言的问题。”在周五决定维持利率不变的会议上，董事会成员认为，进一步评估经济和价格前景面临的风险以及金融条件的发展是适当的。
However, Ueda reiterated upside inflation risks saying that the BOJ will need to pay close attention to the risk that underlying inflation could rise above 2%. He rejected the idea of formally declaring that the target had been achieved, saying, "It's not a matter of issuing a declaration of victory." At Friday's meeting when the board decided to keep rates unchanged, members concluded that it was appropriate to further examine risks to the economic and price outlook and developments in financial conditions.
植田表示，日本央行将在每次会议（包括12月的会议）上，通过评估经济和价格前景实现的概率并检查相关风险，来决定适当的政策利率。
Ueda said the BOJ will determine the appropriate policy rate at each meeting, including in December, by assessing the likelihood that its economic and price outlook will be realized and by examining the associated risks.
中东持续的冲突推高了能源和其他大宗商品的价格，加剧了通胀压力，并恶化了生活成本挤压。人工智能的蓬勃发展也推高了对电力、半导体及相关基础设施的需求，增添了价格压力。
The protracted conflict in the Middle East has pushed up prices for energy and other commodities, stoking inflationary pressures and exacerbating the cost-of-living squeeze. The artificial intelligence boom has also boosted demand for electricity, semiconductors and related infrastructure, adding to price pressures.
关于人工智能，植田表示相关投资保持强劲，但巨额资本支出能否产生足够回报仍存在不确定性。他表示，随着投资者重新评估实际收益，过度乐观的市场时期之后很可能会出现修正，并补充说这种波动可能会持续一段时间。
Regarding AI, Ueda said related investment has stayed strong, but uncertainty remains over whether huge capital outlays will generate adequate returns. He said periods of excessive market optimism are likely to be followed by corrections as investors reassess actual earnings, adding that such swings could continue for some time.
在此番言论发表之前，基准日经平均指数大幅下跌，受科技股拖累，周五收盘跌幅超过2%。
His comments followed a sharp fall in the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average, which was dragged down by tech stocks and closed over 2% lower on Friday.
日本央行还发布了季度《展望报告》，将自4月开始的2027财年通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%。日本央行在报告中解释称，这一修正反映了“夏季以来原油价格上涨的影响等因素”。该行维持2026财年2.5%的通胀预测不变，并维持2028财年2.0%的预测不变。
The BOJ also released its quarterly Outlook Report, lifting its inflation forecast for the fiscal year starting in April 2027 to 2.6% from 2.4%. In its report, the BOJ explained that the revision reflects "factors such as the effects of the rise in crude oil prices since the summer." It left its inflation forecast unchanged for fiscal 2026, at 2.5%, as well as its fiscal 2028 forecast at 2.0%.
日本央行于2013年1月采纳了2%的通胀目标。几个月后，在时任行长黑田东彦的领导下，该行推出了前所未有的货币宽松计划，其中包括大量购买日本国债和其他资产，旨在尽快实现该目标。
The BOJ adopted its 2% inflation target in January 2013. A few months later, under then-Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, it launched an unprecedented monetary easing program that included massive purchases of Japanese government bonds and other assets, aiming to achieve the target as quickly as possible.
然而，日本根深蒂固的通缩心态事实证明难以克服，通胀经历多年才最终稳固确立。
However, Japan's deeply entrenched deflationary mindset proved difficult to overcome, and it took years before inflation became firmly established.
周五，日本央行还表示，将从2027年1月开始调整交易所交易基金（ETF）的出售步伐。
On Friday, the BOJ also said it will adjust the pace of sales of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), starting in January 2027.
根据账面价值，该行将以每年约8600亿日元（合54亿美元）的速度出售ETF，高于此前3300亿日元的步伐。截至3月底，该央行持有的ETF总市值约为94万亿日元。
Based on book value, the bank will sell ETFs at a pace of about 860 billion yen ($5.4 billion) per year, up from its previous pace of 330 billion yen. As of the end of March, ETFs held by the central bank had a total market value of around 94 trillion yen.
植田将股价上涨和交易量急剧增加作为日本央行决定加快处置的原因。他表示，即使加快出售步伐，日本央行预计对市场的影响仍将有限。
Ueda cited gains in stock prices and a sharp increase in trading volumes as reasons for the BOJ's decision to accelerate its disposal. Even with the faster pace of sales, he said the BOJ expects the market impact to remain limited.
2025年9月，日本央行宣布将在公开市场上出售其持有的ETF和日本房地产投资信托基金（J-REITs）。按照其最初设定的步伐，日本央行处置这些ETF将需要112年。新的步伐将把这一时间缩短至约43年。
In September 2025, the BOJ announced that it will sell its holdings of ETFs and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) on the open market. At the initial pace it had set, disposing of the ETFs would have taken the BOJ 112 years. The new pace will shorten that time to around 43 years.
日本央行的这一决定紧随美国联邦储备委员会的类似举措之后，美联储于周三维持利率不变。
The BOJ's decision follows a similar move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which held interest rates steady on Wednesday.
两家央行都在9月上调了利率。尽管市场认为本月再次加息的可能性很小，但对12月加息的预期仍然相对较高。
Both central banks raised rates in September. While markets saw little chance of another increase this month, expectations for a December hike remain relatively high.
自从2024年3月历史性地退出负利率以来，日本央行已连续五次加息。其上个月的四分之一点加息将政策利率推升至1995年以来的最高水平。
Since its historic exit from negative interest rates in March 2024, the BOJ has raised rates five more times. Its quarter-point increase last month lifted the policy rate to its highest level since 1995.
在植田举行新闻发布会之前，东短研究和东短ICAP截至下午3点15分的数据暗示，日本央行在12月政策会议上加息的概率为80%。
Prior to Ueda's news conference, data from Totan Research and Totan ICAP as of 3:15 p.m. implied an 80% probability of a rate increase at the BOJ's December policy meeting.
在植田的新闻发布会期间，日元走势有限，兑美元汇率在157日元中段左右交易。
The yen's movements were limited during Ueda's news conference, trading around the mid-157 range versus the dollar.