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彭博社

Polymarket正调查关于以色列选举的可疑交易Polymarket Investigating Suspicious Trades on Israeli Election

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10月22日,在特拉维夫的一处市场上,展示本雅明·内塔尼亚胡和反对派领导人的政治竞选海报。Political campaign posters showing Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leaders at a market in Tel Aviv on Oct. 22.

Polymarket正在调查本周关于以色列选举的一系列时机精准且获利丰厚的交易,这是引发对预测市场潜在内幕交易担忧的最新案例。

Polymarket is investigating a string of well-timed and profitable trades on the Israeli election this week in the latest case to raise concerns about potential insider trading on prediction markets.

根据彭博社对Polymarket区块链账本的分析,就在周二投票结束前不久,数百个新账户下注称本雅明·内塔尼亚胡及其利库德集团的表现将优于对手。在一些出口民调显示内塔尼亚胡的政党赢得的席位多于早期报道暗示的数量后,这些交易迅速变得有利可图,其中一些账户已经联合套现超过10万美元。

Just before the polls closed on Tuesday, hundreds of new accounts placed bets that Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party would do better than opponents, according to a Bloomberg analysis of Polymarket’s blockchain ledger. Those trades quickly became profitable — and together some of the accounts already cashed out over $100,000 — after some exit polls showed that Netanyahu’s party had won more seats than early reports suggested.

该公司的内部调查团队向彭博社表示,Polymarket正在审查数十个在选举中进行交易的新创建钱包。

Polymarket is reviewing dozens of newly created wallets that traded on the election, the company’s internal investigative team told Bloomberg.

曾识别出此前预测市场内幕交易案例的两家数据分析公司Polysights和Bubblemaps告诉彭博社,它们也将这些交易标记为可疑交易,并正在调查相关活动。由于Polymarket基于加密货币的国际交易所上的每一笔交易都使用区块链技术记录在公开账本上,这些下注是可见的。

Two data analysis firms that have identified previous prediction market insider trading cases, Polysights and Bubblemaps, told Bloomberg that they have also flagged the trades as suspicious and are looking into the activity. The bets are visible because every transaction on Polymarket’s international cryptocurrency-based exchange is logged on a public ledger using blockchain technology.

初步分析远非定论,要将内幕交易与原创研究或幸运交易区分开来可能很困难,尤其是在每分钟发生数百万笔交易的市场中。

The initial analysis is far from conclusive and it can be hard to separate insider trading from original research or lucky trades, especially in markets with millions of trades happening each minute.

自7月中旬以来,Polymarket的交易员一直认为反对党领袖加迪·艾森科特成为下一任领导人的几率更高,这反映了显示内塔尼亚胡支持率下降的民调。但在周二投票结束后,内塔尼亚胡在Polymarket上的胜率迅速飙升至54%,而艾森科特的胜率则急剧下降至23%。

Polymarket traders had consistently given opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot a higher chance of becoming the next leader since mid-July, reflecting polling that showed flagging support for Netanyahu. But after the polls closed on Tuesday, Netanyahu’s odds on Polymarket quickly soared to 54% while Eisenkot’s dropped sharply to 23%.

调查团队正在审查两个市场的交易,一个关注内塔尼亚胡是否会成为下一任总理,另一个关注利库德集团是否会获得所有政党中最多的席位。许多钱包都有尚未实现的重大收益。

The investigative teams are looking at trading on two markets, one focused on whether Netanyahu will be the next prime minister and another on whether Likud would get the most seats of any party. Many wallets have significant gains that have not yet been realized.

这些选举下注是围绕敏感政治事件的一系列时机精准的预测市场下注中的最新一起。N以色列当局今年早些时候对一名军事预备役人员和平民提起指控,指控他们涉嫌利用秘密军事信息在Polymarket上进行与该国在伊朗安全行动相关的下注。

The election bets are the latest in a string of well-timed prediction-market wagers around sensitive political events. Israeli authorities filed charges earlier this year against a military reservist and a civilian for allegedly using secret military information to place wagers on Polymarket related to the country’s security operations in Iran.

在美国,联邦检察官对士兵加农·肯·范戴克提起指控,指控他利用关于委内瑞拉军事行动的高度敏感信息,在Polymarket上获利超过40万美元。

In the US, federal prosecutors brought charges against soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, alleging that he had used highly sensitive information about a military operation in Venezuela to reap more than $400,000 in profit on Polymarket.

彭博新闻社的初步分析识别出了600多个在同一天创建、没有先前交易历史的钱包,它们下注内塔尼亚胡赢得选举或利库德集团胜出。

An initial Bloomberg News analysis identified more than 600 wallets that were created on the same day, with no prior trading history, that bet on either Netanyahu winning the election or the Likud party coming out on top.

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