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彭博社

英国凭借财政紧缩姿态重新赢得债券投资者信任UK Wins Back Bond Investors With Dose of Fiscal Restraint

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10月28日,首相安迪·伯纳姆。摄影:克里斯·J·拉特克利夫/彭博社Prime Minister Andy Burnham on Oct. 28. Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

英国债券市场的修复又向前迈进了一步,首相安迪·伯纳姆本周发布的首份预算案让投资者吃下定心丸,推动收益率降至五周低点。

The rehabilitation of the UK bond market took another step forward as Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s debut budget reassured investors this week, sending yields to a five-week low.

这份预算案的显著克制打对了音调,尽管投资者一致认为,急需的结构性改革目前已被推迟。10年期英国国债收益率周四一度跌至5.25%,有望录得自5月以来最大单月跌幅。

Its notable restraint hit the right notes, even as investors agreed that much-needed structural reforms had been pushed down the road for now. The 10-year gilt yield fell as low as 5.25% on Thursday and is set for the biggest monthly drop since May.

“在财政纪律方面,英国开始显得像是屋里的成年人,”英国最大资产管理公司法通的首席投资策略师克里斯·杰弗里表示。“未来可能还需要进一步收紧,但这份预算案实现了其维护信誉的目标。”积极的市场反应对英国而言是一大利好,该国在债务投资者心中仍存在形象问题。这种损害主要源于2016年脱欧公投,以及前首相利兹·特拉斯2022年的“迷你预算案”,后者引发市场动荡,迫使英格兰银行出手干预。

“The UK is starting to look like the adult in the room when it comes to fiscal discipline,” said Chris Jeffery, chief investment strategist for Legal & General, Britain’s largest asset manager. “There may be more tightening needed in future but this budget achieved its aim of maintaining credibility.”The positive market reception is a boon for the UK, which still suffers from an image problem with debt investors. That damage was mainly done by the 2016 vote to leave the European Union and former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ 2022 mini-budget, which sparked a market rout the Bank of England had to step in to contain.

诚然,英国公共财政依然岌岌可危。但该国因纠偏努力赢得国际货币基金组织的赞誉,这种做法使其区别于法国和美国等国。

To be sure, the UK’s public finances remain highly precarious. But the country has won plaudits from the International Monetary Fund for its efforts to correct course, an approach that sets it apart from the likes of France and the US.

周三预算案随附的数据令人谨慎乐观。本财年剩余时间的借款计划仅小幅上调至2506亿英镑(约合3340亿美元),符合预期。预算赤字预计将在2027-2028财年降至3.4%,尽管降幅较预期放缓。

The data accompanying Wednesday’s budget was cautiously reassuring. Borrowing plans for the rest of the fiscal year ticked up only slightly to £250.6 billion ($334 billion), in line with expectations. And the budget deficit is projected to fall to 3.4% in 2027-2028, albeit declining at a slower pace than anticipated.

自7月接替基尔·斯塔默以来,伯纳姆反复强调其对财政责任的承诺。这与他在去年大选获胜前的言论形成对比,当时他表示英国不应“受制于”债券市场。当时投资者担心这可能预示着将转向更多借贷和支出。

Since replacing Keir Starmer in July, Burnham has repeatedly stressed his commitment to fiscal responsibility. That contrasts with comments last year before he swept to power, when he said Britain shouldn’t be “in hock” to bond markets. At the time, investors worried it might herald a pivot toward more borrowing and spending.

但受限于本周这个“不伤害”预算,他的财政整顿信息帮助英国国债经受住了由美伊战争引发的全球债券市场更广泛动荡的冲击。法国债务尤其遭到重创,因为政府试图在一个分裂的议会中推行预算,明年大选在即,社会动荡迹象日益加剧。

But capped by this week’s do-no-harm budget, his message of financial rectitude has helped gilts weather the broader turbulence in global bond markets triggered by the US-Iran war. French debt in particular has been pummeled as the government tries to push its budget through a divided parliament, with elections looming next year and mounting signs of social unrest.

据彭博经济研究,英国10年期基准债券的“信誉溢价”——即政府因过去的政策失误、冲击和大量支出而估计需额外支付的收益率补偿——目前约为20个基点。

According to Bloomberg Economics, the UK’s “credibility premium” on the 10-year benchmark bond — the extra yield the government is estimated to pay to compensate for past policy missteps, shocks and heavy spending — currently stands at around 20 basis points.

这仅为特拉斯四年前“迷你预算”发布后几周所达水平的五分之一。

That’s just a fifth of the level reached in the weeks after Truss’s mini budget four years ago.

BCA Research首席全球固定收益策略师罗伯特·廷珀预测,这一额外收益率将随时间下降。他说,前提是政府坚持其2029/30财年目标,即在支付国债利息前,实现政府收入与政府支出的平衡。

Robert Timper, chief global fixed income strategist at BCA Research, predicts the extra yield will fall with time. That’s so long as the government sticks to its 2029/30 target of balancing government revenue against government spending before interest payments on the national debt, he said.

尽管如此,关于伯纳姆改造英国经济的宏大计划,仍存在大量长期疑问,更多细节将在未来几个月公布。

Still, there are plenty of long-term questions about Burnham’s big plans for overhauling the UK economy, with more details due in the months ahead.

核心目标包括最终调整国家养老金,并利用区域下放权力、再工业化和基本公共服务的公共控制,在多年停滞后重振经济增长。

Core goals include eventually adjusting the state pension and using regional devolution, reindustrialization and public control of essential services to revive economic growth after years of stagnation.

债务占国内生产总值的94%,为1960年代以来最高,每年偿债成本超过1100亿英镑,寻找减轻负担的途径至关重要。

With debt at 94% of gross domestic product, the most since the 1960s and costing over £110 billion to service a year, a route to reducing the burden is crucial.

“预算暂时有帮助,短期内英国看起来像个相对避风港,”Ninety One投资组合经理约翰·斯托福德说。“明年的支出审查最终将是关键。”

“The budget will help for now, and in the short-term the UK looks like a relative safe-haven,” said John Stopford, a portfolio manager at Ninety One. “Next year’s spending review will ultimately be key.”

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