投资者对英国资产的信心将在周三接受考验，届时首相安迪·伯纳姆的政府将提交其首份预算案。
Investor confidence in UK assets will be put to the test on Wednesday as Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government delivers its first budget.
市场押注格林尼治时间下午12:30的宣布将聚焦财政纪律，且不会有重大意外，这一预期在最近几周提振了英国国债、股票和英镑。据一些投资者称，与欧元区债券市场的动荡相比，英国国债如今提供了一处避风港。
Bets that the 12:30 p.m. announcement will concentrate on fiscal discipline, with no big surprises, have buoyed UK gilts, stocks and the pound in recent weeks. According to some investors, the nation’s debt now offers a haven compared with the turmoil in euro-area bond markets.
要使这些涨势延续，财政大臣约翰·希利必须避免以大幅减税或增加开支的形式推出重大的长期福利政策。债券投资者将特别关注预算责任办公室关于国家赤字预测的单独宣布，以及债务管理办公室的国债发行计划。
For those gains to continue, Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey will need to avoid major long-term giveaways in the form of significant tax cuts or higher spending. Bond investors will focus particularly on separate announcements from the Office for Budget Responsibility showing projections for the nation’s deficit and the Debt Management Office’s plan for gilt issuance.
“真正的潜力投资总监塞巴斯蒂安·麦凯表示：“债券投资者想要的只是一个可信的中期计划，以此看出债务水平基本上已触顶，从而不在不可持续的轨道上。债券投资者想看到的就是公共债务供给没有爆炸式增长。”周三英国国债小幅下跌，与其他主权债券市场走势一致。
“What bond investors want is just a credible medium-term plan to see that, basically, the level of debt is somehow peaking out, so that it’s not on an unsustainable path,” said Sebastian Mackay, investment director at True Potential. “All bond investors want to see is that the supply of public debt is not exploding.”UK gilts dipped slightly on Wednesday, in line with other sovereign bond markets.
虽然受美国对伊朗开战引发的全球债券抛售影响，英国借贷成本有所上升，但涨幅远不如许多其他发达国家剧烈。据彭博指数显示，本月以美元计价，英国国债回报率为1.9%，而法国债券亏损2.4%，欧洲发达市场债务平均下跌0.4%。
While UK borrowing costs have climbed in the global bond selloff triggered by the US war on Iran, the moves are less dramatic than in many other developed nations. Gilts have returned 1.9% in dollar terms this month, compared with a 2.4% loss for French bonds and a 0.4% average decline for developed-market debt in Europe, according to a Bloomberg index.
英国股市表现也优于同类市场，富时100指数和富时250指数今年以来均跑赢欧洲斯托克50指数。英镑兑大多数十国集团货币走强。
Britain’s equity market has also outpaced peers, with both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 beating the Euro Stoxx 50 index this year. The pound has strengthened against most of its Group-of-10 peers.
一份不会让市场剧烈震荡的预算案，将与往年形成对比。此前投资者因认为政府政策失误而惩罚英国资产。据彭博经济学估算，英国国债仍承载着一笔可观的“信誉溢价”，以补偿投资者因那些过往事件而承担的风险。
A budget that doesn’t whipsaw markets would contrast with previous years, when investors punished the government for perceived policy missteps. According to Bloomberg Economics, UK bonds still carry a chunky “credibility premium” to compensate for those past episodes.
荷兰国际集团（ING）的策略师估计，预算案公布后，10年期英国国债收益率应会下行，因为投资者将不再为支出意外风险计价。
Strategists at ING estimate say the 10-year gilt yield should move lower after the budget as investors price out the risk of spending surprises.
目前政府透露的措施倾向于提供临时性、针对性支持，而非大规模发钱式支出。措施包括将150英镑（约合199美元）的“温暖家庭折扣”扩大覆盖面、冻结燃油税以及取消部分进口关税。提高银行税的提案也已浮出水面，被视为相对利好英国国债。
So far, the measures floated by the government favor temporary, targeted support over large-scale spending giveaways. They include an expansion of the £150 ($199) warm home discount, a freeze on fuel duty and the removal of some import tariffs. Proposals for higher bank taxes have also been floated and are viewed as relatively gilt-friendly.
联博赫梅斯金融板块负责人Filippo Alloatti表示：“他们不会采取大胆举措，但同时我认为他们已意识到没钱可花。”他称，如果预算案不令人失望，英国在全球债券市场的形象问题可能会得到改善。
“They won’t be doing the bold things, but at the same time, I think they’ve come to a realization there is no money,” said Filippo Alloatti, head of financials at Federated Hermes. If the budget does not disappoint, the UK’s image problem in global bond markets could be set to improve, he said.
投资者也将密切关注政府所谓的“财政空间”。希利从前任雷切尔·里夫斯手中继承了近240亿英镑的预算缓冲，但因伊朗战争引发的通胀加快和借贷成本上升，这笔缓冲已被侵蚀。主要英国国债交易商目前将其估算为约152亿英镑。
Investors will also keep a close eye on the government’s so-called fiscal headroom. Healey inherited an almost £24 billion budget buffer from his predecessor Rachel Reeves, but it’s been eroded by faster inflation and higher borrowing costs linked to the war in Iran. Primary gilt dealers now put it at about £15.2 billion.
Allspring高级投资组合经理Lauren van Biljon表示，她指望“财政空间方面没有恶意惊喜”，同时警告关键参数仍可能发生变化。
Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring, said she’s counting on “no nasty surprise in store for fiscal headroom,” while cautioning that key parameters could yet change.
在借贷方面，预计本财年英国国债发行量将较4月最新计划增加30亿英镑。英国债务管理办公室（DMO）预计将提高短期国债发行占比，并增加国库券发行。
In terms of borrowing, the expectation is for an extra £3 billion in gilt sales this fiscal year compared with the latest plan in April. The DMO is seen increasing the share of shorter maturity gilts it issues, as well as using more Treasury bills.
投资者将密切关注政府是否会动用所谓的公共金融机构，即 PuFIns，这些机构允许政府在英国国债市场融资用于投资，而不损害财政指标。
And investors will be watching for signs the government will use so called public financial institutions, or PuFIns, which allow it to borrow in the gilt market for investment, without hurting fiscal metrics.
更广泛的担忧在于，一个谨慎且财政紧缩的预算案——尽管稳妥——对提振增长作用有限，可能会削弱商业动能，并让英镑承担代价。
A broader concern is that a cautious and fiscally restrictive budget — while playing it safe — will do little to boost growth, potentially sapping business momentum and leaving the pound to bear the cost.
尽管如此，预算宣布前未发生泄露，有助于恢复一定的公信力。此前几年，政策曾被公开试探后又放弃，导致市场剧烈震荡。
Still, a leak-free run-up to the announcement has helped restore some credibility. In previous years, policies were publicly floated then abandoned, causing markets to whipsaw.
“实践出真知，”MFS Investment Management 发达市场主权债务研究主管 Peter Goves 表示。“英国国债投资者仍希望看到实际赤字数据。”
“The proof’s in the pudding,” said Peter Goves, head of developed market debt sovereign research at MFS Investment Management. “Gilt investors are still wanting to see the actual deficit come in.”