欧元势将创下四年多来相对于英镑的最差月度表现，原因是市场对法国前景的担忧拖累了这一共同货币。
The euro is set for its weakest month in more than four years compared to the pound as concern about France’s outlook weighs on the common currency.
法国摇摇欲坠的政治和财政状况与英国相对稳定之间的对比，因英国本周公布的一份低调预算而更加凸显。
The comparison between France’s shaky political and fiscal position and the relative stability of the UK was underscored by a low-key budget delivered in Britain this week.
周五，欧元兑英镑跌至2025年4月以来的最低水平。10月迄今欧元兑英镑已下跌逾2%，势将创下2022年7月以来最差表现。与此同时，英镑本月兑欧元的涨幅超过任何其他十国集团货币。
On Friday, the euro fell to its weakest level against the pound since April 2025. It has dropped more than 2 percent against sterling in October, putting it on track for its worst performance since July 2022. Meanwhile the pound has gained more against the euro than any other Group of 10 currency this month.
法国难以控制其预算赤字，这引发了债券市场的剧烈波动，推动借贷成本升至25年来最高水平，并给欧元及其前景带来压力。
France’s struggle to tame its budget deficit has fueled sharp moves in the bond market, sending borrowing costs to their highest in 25 years and putting pressure on the euro and its outlook.
与此同时，在明年全国选举之前，该国因教育体系和生活成本问题爆发了抗议活动。
At the same time, the country has been rocked by protests over its education system and the cost of living by ahead of national elections next year.
富国银行策略师马库斯·詹宁斯表示，欧元区第二大经济体政治和财政风险加大，而英国经济相对具有韧性，这意味着欧元兑英镑的走势看来将持续下去。
The combination of greater political and fiscal risks in the eurozone’s second-largest economy and the relative economic resilience of the UK means the EUR/GBP trend looks set to continue, said Marcus Jennings, strategist at Wells Fargo.
詹宁斯说：“欧元区增长势头显示出减弱迹象，而英国继续带来上行惊喜。”他预计到年底该货币对将跌至接近0.83的水平。
“Euro area growth momentum is showing signs of waning whereas the UK continues to surprise to the upside,” said Jennings, who sees the pair falling close to 0.83 by year-end.
英国一连串好于预期的经济数据提振了英镑，并促使国际货币基金组织本月早些时候上调了其增长预测。
A run of better-than-expected UK economic data has boosted the pound and prompted the International Monetary Fund to upgrade its growth forecast earlier this month.
尽管如此，英国也并非没有自身的财政问题，这些问题拖累了英镑兑美元的汇率。许多投资者质疑政府是否有能力兑现控制支出的承诺。与此同时，这些制约因素预计将限制未来几年的增长。
Still, the UK isn’t without its own fiscal issues, which have weighed on the pound versus the dollar. Many investors question the government’s ability to deliver on a commitment to reign in spending. At the same time those constraints are seen limiting growth in the coming years.
目前，期权市场显示欧元兑英镑的人气走弱。这与周四触及四周高位形成突然逆转，当时欧洲央行未理会外界日益升温的预期，即其可能出手干预以平息法国债券的抛售。
For now, the options market is signaling weaker euro sentiment versus the pound. That marked a sudden reversal from a four-week high on Thursday, when the European Central Bank brushed off growing expectations that it may intervene to quell a selloff in French bonds.
荷兰合作银行G10货币策略主管简·福利表示，法国的困境“给英镑带来相对正面的影响”，她认为政治风险将在明年拖累欧元。
France’s woes have “cast a relatively positive light on the pound,” said Jane Foley, head of G10 currency strategist at Rabobank, who sees political risks weighing on the euro into next year.