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美联社决策笔记:选举日佐治亚州有何看点AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia on Election Day

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佐治亚州莫罗,2026年10月28日星期三,民主党州长候选人基莎·兰斯·博顿斯(中)与前总统巴拉克·奥巴马以及民主党参议员候选人乔恩·奥索夫在佐治亚州初选前的集会后一同走下舞台。(美联社照片/布林·安德森)Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, center, joined by former President Barack Obama and Democratic candidate Sen. Jon Ossoff, walk off stage after a rally ahead of the Georgia Primary Election on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, Morrow, Ga. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)

罗伯特·尹 华盛顿 —— 佐治亚州民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫周二将在全国瞩目的关键竞选中捍卫其参议员席位,而共和党则试图在即将卸任的共和党州长布赖恩·肯普执政两届后守住州长官邸。

ROBERT YOON WASHINGTON — Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff is defending his Senate seat Tuesday in one of the nation’s marquee races, while Republicans try to hold onto the governor’s mansion after two terms under departing GOP Gov. Brian Kemp.

奥索夫是唯一一位在唐纳德·特朗普总统2024年大选中获胜的州寻求连任的民主党参议员。对于希望抵消中期选举环境下可能出现的席位损失的共和党而言,该席位将是一大奖赏,因为总统所属政党在中期选举中通常会失去席位。共和党拥有53个参议院席位,最多只能输掉其中三个,仍能依靠副总统JD·万斯的决定性一票维持控制权。

Ossoff is the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state President Donald Trump carried in 2024. The seat would be a top prize for Republicans looking to offset possible losses in a midterm environment where the president’s party typically loses seats. Republicans can afford to lose no more than three of their 53 Senate seats and still maintain control with Vice President JD Vance casting tiebreaking votes.

曾被认为对民主党遥不可及的参议院控制权,随着关键竞选州的共和党候选人因选民不满特朗普对高物价和伊朗战争的处理而失去支持,正日益成为角逐焦点。佐治亚州的竞选已吸引特朗普前往多尔顿和佩里为共和党举办集会,也吸引了前总统巴拉克·奥巴马前往亚特兰大助选。

Once thought out of reach for Democrats, control of the Senate is increasingly in play as Republican candidates in key contests lose support over disapproval of Trump’s handling of high prices and the war in Iran. The Georgia races have drawn Trump to GOP rallies in Dalton and Perry and former President Barack Obama to Atlanta .

来自佐治亚州与南卡罗来纳州接壤的保守派第10国会选区的两届联邦众议员迈克·科林斯,在5月19日的五人初选中得票最多,随后在6月16日的决选中以56%对45%击败前田纳西大学橄榄球教练德雷克·杜利,赢得共和党提名。特朗普在决选中背书科林斯,而肯普支持杜利。

Two-term Rep. Mike Collins, from the conservative 10th Congressional District along the South Carolina border, was the top vote-getter in the five-candidate May 19 primary and then won the Republican nomination outright in a June 16 runoff against former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, 56% to 45%. Trump endorsed Collins for the runoff, while Kemp backed Dooley.

在民主党初选中无人竞争的奥索夫,在筹款和支出上已远超科林斯竞选团队。截至10月14日,奥索夫筹集约1.37亿美元,而科林斯约1100万美元。科林斯获得了共和党参议院领袖约翰·图恩的参议院领导基金超级政治行动委员会等外部团体的帮助,但支持奥索夫的外部团体支出远超支持科林斯的团体。

Ossoff, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, has eclipsed the Collins campaign in fundraising and spending. Ossoff has raised about $137 million as of Oct. 14, compared to about $11 million for Collins. Collins has received help from outside groups such as Republican Senate Leader John Thune’s Senate Leadership Fund PAC, but outside groups supporting Ossoff have far outspent those supporting Collins.

在州长选举中,共和党医疗企业高管里克·杰克逊和民主党前亚特兰大市长凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯正竞争接替肯普的职位。杰克逊在6月的决选投票中获得了53%,击败了特朗普挑选的副州长伯特·琼斯。

In the governor’s race, Republican healthcare executive Rick Jackson and Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms are competing to succeed Kemp. Jackson received 53% of the June runoff vote , defeating Trump’s pick, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones.

博顿斯在5月的初选中获得了56%的选票,在七位候选人的竞争中锁定了民主党提名。

Bottoms clinched the Democratic nomination in the May primary , receiving 56% of the vote in a field of seven.

获胜者将在下一届总统选举期间执政,如果乔治亚州像2020年和2024年那样保持竞争性,他可能会成为关键人物。特朗普指责肯普拒绝帮助推翻他在乔治亚州2020年输给民主党人乔·拜登的选举结果,但两人在2024年特朗普连任胜选前达成了缓和。

The winner will be in office during the next presidential election campaign and could emerge as a key figure if Georgia remains as competitive as it was in 2020 and 2024. Trump blamed Kemp for refusing to help overturn his 2020 loss in Georgia to Democrat Joe Biden, but the two reached a détente in 2024 ahead of Trump’s reelection victory.

乔治亚州法律允许县选举官员在选举日早上7点开始统计邮寄选票。因此,选举之夜首次报告的投票结果将包括大量邮寄选票以及提前的现场投票。

Georgia state law allows county elections officials to begin tabulating mail ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day. As a result, the first votes reported on election night will include many of these mail ballots as well as early in-person votes.

总体来看,自2020年选举期间提前投票和邮寄投票议题高度政治化以来,这类选票倾向于有利于民主党。这表明,在竞争激烈的选举中,民主党候选人在投票站关闭后最初的投票报告中可能会取得领先,尽管随着更多选举日现场投票的统计,竞争可能会显著收紧。

Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This suggests that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more Election Day votes are tabulated.

例如,在2024年总统选举中,民主党副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在投票站关闭后不久公布的初步结果中领先11个百分点,但在现场选票统计的第一小时内,特朗普领先27个百分点。随后这一优势逐步收窄,最终在全部选票计入后,特朗普以约2个百分点的优势击败哈里斯。

For example, in the 2024 presidential election, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris took an 11-point lead as initial results were released shortly after polls closed, but Trump led by 27 points within the hour as in-person Election Day votes were tabulated. That lead then tightened steadily and he ended up besting Harris by about 2 percentage points when all votes were counted.

在全州性竞选中,共和党通常在乔治亚州北部、中心和东南部的较小、较为农村的县份表现最佳,而民主党则在亚特兰大、奥古斯塔、哥伦布、梅肯、萨凡纳和雅典等人口中心获得最高票数。

In statewide races, Republicans tend to perform best in the smaller, more rural counties in Georgia’s northern, central and southeastern regions, while Democrats post their best numbers in the population centers of Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah and Athens.

亚特兰大都会区的富尔顿县、格威内特县、科布县和迪卡尔布县是佐治亚州人口最多的县,也是该州民主党核心票仓的组成部分。

The Atlanta-area counties of Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb are the most populous in Georgia and form the core of the state’s Democratic stronghold.

如果没有候选人获得多数票,得票最多的前两名将进入12月1日的决选。投票将于美国东部时间晚上7点结束。

If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a Dec. 1 runoff. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.

美联社将提供参议院、众议院、州长、副州长、州务卿、总检察长、农业专员、保险专员、州学校总监、劳工专员、公共服务专员、州参议院、州众议院以及三项全州性拟议宪法修正案的投票结果,并宣布获胜者。2022年佐治亚州参议院选举共投出约390万张选票。

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners for Senate, House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, agriculture commissioner, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, labor commissioner, public service commissioner, state Senate, state House and three statewide proposed constitutional amendments. About 3.9 million votes were cast in the 2022 Senate race in Georgia.

2022年参议院选举中,约64%的选票是通过提前现场投票或邮寄方式投出的。

About 64% of the votes in the 2022 Senate race were cast early in-person or by mail.

佐治亚州最新的提前投票总数可在美联社的提前投票追踪器中查看。

The latest advance vote totals for Georgia can be found in the AP’s advance vote tracker .

预计约五分之四的县将在当晚第一次投票更新中公布全部或几乎全部提前现场投票和邮寄投票结果,这一时间早于大多数县公布任何选举日现场投票结果的时间。

About four of every five counties are expected to release all or almost all of their early in-person and mail voting results in the first vote update of the night, before most counties release any in-person Election Day votes.

在2024年大选中,美联社于美国东部时间晚上7点04分,即投票结束后四分钟,发布了佐治亚州的首批结果。到美国东部时间晚上10点21分,约90%的总选票已完成计票。当晚最后一次投票更新是在美国东部时间凌晨3点15分,当时约99%的总选票已完成计票。

In the 2024 general election, the AP reported the first results in Georgia at 7:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. About 90% of the total vote had been counted by 10:21 p.m. ET. The last vote update of the night was at 3:15 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted.

佐治亚州没有自动重新计票的规定,但如果票差小于或等于总选票的0.5%,落败的候选人可以要求重新计票。如果美联社能够判定领先优势过大,重新计票或法律挑战无法改变结果,美联社可能会在一场可能面临重新计票的竞选中宣布获胜者。

There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

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