
从局外人的角度看,人们很容易用一句法语“白帽与帽白”——意为“老一套、换汤不换药”——来形容以色列政治。有人可能会说,无论是本雅明·内塔尼亚胡还是加迪·艾森科特组建下一届政府,都无关紧要。
From an outsider's perspective, it's tempting to apply the French expression blanc bonnet et bonnet blanc – "same old, same old" – to Israeli politics. Some might say that whether it's Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot who forms the next government matters little.
毕竟,10月27日的选举结果仍不确定,而这场选举并未真正聚焦于以色列人与巴勒斯坦人未来共存这一关键议题。2023年10月7日大屠杀的恐怖阴影沉重地笼罩着一切。更何况,总理与反对派领袖在建国问题上立场相同:在约旦河与地中海之间不会有巴勒斯坦国。
After all, the October 27 elections, the outcome of which remains uncertain, didn't really focus on the key issue of future coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians. The horror of the October 7, 2023, massacre weighed heavily. What's more, both the prime minister and the opposition leader share the same position on the question of statehood: no Palestinian state between Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea.
77岁的右翼利库德集团领导人本雅明·内塔尼亚胡已执政近四分之一个世纪。新成立的中间偏右反对党“亚沙尔”的领袖是66岁的前总参谋长加迪·艾森科特。两人都体现了“主导以色列政治的顽固反巴勒斯坦立场”,这“使得在最关键问题上发生有意义的改变不太可能”,智库国际危机组织的以色列裔美国专家迈拉夫·宗斯泰因评论道。
At 77 years old, right-wing Likud party leader Benjamin Netanyahu has been in power for nearly a quarter of a century. The leader of Yashar, the new center-right opposition party, is former chief of the General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, 66. Both reflect a "monolithically anti-Palestinian stance that dominates Israeli politics," which "makes meaningful change on the most critical issues unlikely," observed Mairav Zonszein, an Israeli-American expert from the think tank International Crisis Group.
真正的分歧 尽管如此,内塔尼亚胡与艾森科特并不相同——且不仅在于风格。一边是一位老练的政治操盘手,他将美式公关与政治手腕调和成一杯由意识形态信念、煽动民粹和个人利益调成的鸡尾酒。另一边则是一位直言不讳的军人,直率而不加修饰——像坦克一样冷酷无情,却关注国家的分裂与制度的维护。这些差异至关重要——无论在国内还是国际上。以色列近乎势均力敌的选举分裂揭示了一个分裂的国家。
Real divide Nevertheless, Netanyahu and Eisenkot are not the same – and not just in terms of style. On one side is a seasoned political operator who blends American-style PR and political know-how into a cocktail of ideological convictions, demagoguery and personal interests. On the other is a straight-talking military man, blunt and unembellished – as unfeeling as a tank, but attentive to the country's divisions and the preservation of its institutions. These differences matter – both domestically and internationally. Israel's near-even electoral split reveals a divided country.