
数月以来,以色列反对派领导人加迪·艾森科特(Gadi Eisenkot)一直将自己塑造为总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的稳健替代者,其竞选主张更多是基于可靠性,而非在应对该国诸多安全挑战方面提出截然不同的方针。
For months, Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has pitched himself as a modest alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, campaigning more on reliability than a markedly different approach to the country’s myriad security challenges.
但在竞选活动的最后几天,伊朗问题——以及以色列未来对伊朗的方针——正在拉大两人之间的政策分歧。内塔尼亚胡承诺要推翻德黑兰政权,并得到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的支持,称要“完成这项工作”。在上周的一次集会上,内塔尼亚胡将自己描绘成唯一有能力发动这场生存之战的领导人。
But in the final days of the election campaign, the question of Iran – and of Israel’s future approach to it – is widening the policy gap between the two. Netanyahu is pledging to topple Tehran’s regime – with US President Donald Trump backing him to “finish the job” – casting himself at a rally last week as the only leader capable of waging such an existential battle.
艾森科特则主张设定更狭窄的目标。他表示必须阻止伊朗的核计划,必要时可采取军事手段,但他本月在接受陆军电台采访时称,在德黑兰实现政权更迭“并非一个可实现的目标”。尽管他一生都是鹰派,但他表示希望更多地关注外交。
Eisenkot is advocating narrower goals. He says Iran’s nuclear program must be stopped, militarily if necessary, but he told Army Radio this month that regime change in Tehran is “not an achievable goal.”While he’s spent his life as a hawk, he says he wants more focus on diplomacy.
随着特朗普多次暗示要重启他与内塔尼亚胡于2月对伊朗伊斯兰共和国发动的战争,以色列将如何应对伊朗的问题正成为周二选举前的一个重要因素。这场冲突已中断数月,华盛顿试图通过海军封锁施加经济压力,而德黑兰则寻求控制霍尔木兹海峡。
The question of how Israel will approach Iran is becoming a bigger factor ahead of Tuesday’s election as Trump repeatedly hints at reviving the war that he and Netanyahu started against the Islamic Republic in February. The conflict has been in hiatus for months, with Washington attempting to apply economic pressure via a naval blockade and Tehran looking to control the Strait of Hormuz.
特朗普本月早些时候支持了内塔尼亚胡,尽管这对民调影响甚微,但他无疑会期望以色列支持新一轮攻势。据彭博社报道,美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)本月在以色列的一个空军基地会见了内塔尼亚胡,但此次会晤的目的并未披露。
Trump, who endorsed Netanyahu earlier this month — albeit with little impact on the polls — would doubtless expect Israel to support a fresh offensive. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Netanyahu at an Israeli airbase this month, Bloomberg reported, although the purpose of the meeting wasn’t disclosed.
66岁的艾森科特与在美国生活多年、口才出众且极具镜头感的内塔尼亚胡背景截然不同。这位前军方首脑是定居于工业城市埃拉特的摩洛哥移民之子,毕生致力于以色列国防事业。去年他创立“雅沙尔党”(希伯来语意为“直截了当”)并宣布计划推翻以色列任职时间最长的领导人,令许多人感到意外。
Eisenkot, 66, has a markedly different background from the articulate and telegenic Netanyahu, who spent years in the US. The former military chief is the son of Moroccan immigrants who settled in the working class city of Eilat, and has dedicated his life to Israel’s defense. Many were surprised last year when he launched his Yashar party (straightforward in Hebrew) and said that he planned to oust Israel’s longest serving leader.
艾森科特政治经验不足,英语也说得磕磕绊绊。但他表示,自己最大的优势在于看清了此次选举的利害攸关。艾森科特的儿子加尔和两个侄子在加沙与哈马斯作战时阵亡——这是他用以替代政治履历的一长串牺牲中的一部分。
Eisenkot has little political experience and faltering English. But he says that his overriding advantage is that he grasps the stakes in the election. Eisenkot’s son Gal and two of his nephews were killed while fighting against Hamas in Gaza – part of a long list of sacrifices he gives in lieu of a political resume.
艾森科特本月在以色列公共广播公司“坎”电台表示,他沉闷单调的演说风格和一身黑的标志性着装“都是伪装的一部分”。他补充说:“内塔尼亚胡不适合担任总理,因为他让以色列盲目走入了10月7日”,随后又未能将军事成果转化为外交成果,指的是2023年10月哈马斯袭击以色列以及该国随后的军事和外交政策。
His somber and monotonous oratory and ubiquitous all-black outfit are “all part of the camouflage,” Eisenkot said this month on Israel’s public broadcaster Kan. He added that “Netanyahu is unfit to be prime minister because he led Israel blindly into Oct. 7,” then failed to translate military achievements into diplomatic deals, referring to Hamas’ assault on Israel in October 2023 and the country’s subsequent military and foreign policy.
艾森科特的竞选活动很大程度上旨在利用许多以色列人对内塔尼亚胡的愤怒,后者拒绝为未能阻止哈马斯袭击承担责任,甚至拒绝启动调查。艾森科特将这场悲剧与内塔尼亚胡的联合政府联系起来,该政府中主张扩张的宗教右翼成员在描述以色列战争时,常援引上帝而非冷静的军事逻辑。
Much of Eisenkot’s campaign has looked to tap into the outrage that many Israelis feel toward Netanyahu, who has refused to take responsibility or even launch an inquiry into the failure to prevent the Hamas attack. Eisenkot connects the tragedy to Netanyahu’s coalition, whose expansionist, religious right-wing members often invoke God, rather than sober military logic, in describing Israel’s wars.
艾森科特反对建立巴勒斯坦国,但希望监督多达7万名来自约旦河西岸的巴勒斯坦日工返岗以色列,以确保经济稳定从而遏制恐怖主义,他在上周的一次竞选集会上表示。
Eisenkot opposes the creation of a Palestinian state, but wants to supervise the return of up to 70,000 Palestinian day workers from the West Bank into Israel to ensure economic stability to counter terrorism, he said at a campaign rally last week.
在加沙,他希望通过执行2025年10月由美国斡旋达成的和平协议,或通过军事力量将哈马斯赶下台,他本月在加沙边境附近对支持者这样表示。他并未详细说明如何结束哈马斯目前拒绝解除武装的局面,而这被广泛视为落实该协议的主要障碍。
In Gaza, he wants to remove Hamas from power, either by enforcing the US-brokered peace agreement of October 2025 or through military force, he told supporters near the Gaza border this month. He hasn’t elaborated on how to end the ongoing refusal of Hamas to disarm, widely viewed as the chief barrier to implementing that accord.
艾森科特的获胜之路要求他将以色列右翼与构成其基本盘的中间派团结起来,同时争取内塔尼亚胡利库德党的选民。他的策略是通过小规模活动和客厅会议,而非大型集会。
Eisenkot’s path to victory requires him to unify the Israeli right with the centrists that make up his base, while pulling in voters for Netanyahu’s Likud party. His strategy has been through small-scale events and living-room meetings rather than mass rallies.
希伯来大学政治学家盖伊尔·塔尔希尔表示,在利库德党的核心地带竞选时,他还在“心理层面下功夫”,试图在那些曾经不投票给内塔尼亚胡被视为禁忌的城镇中,动摇那些尚未决定的选民。
In campaigning in the Likud heartlands, he is also “working on the psychic level” to try to sway undecided voters in towns where it was once taboo to not vote Netanyahu, said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University.
选前民调一直显示,内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特的阵营都无法赢得组建政府所需的61个席位。10月22日的一项第12频道民调预测艾森科特将获得55席,内塔尼亚胡获得51席;而第13频道的一项调查则显示结果为52比49。
Pre-election polls have consistently shown that neither Netanyahu’s nor Eisenkot’s bloc will win the required 61 seats to secure a majority needed to form a government. A Channel 12 poll on Oct. 22 projected 55 for Eisenkot and 51 for Netanyahu, while a Channel 13 survey put the outcome at 52 to 49.
如果出现类似的结果,获胜者将需要拉拢其他政党,对于艾森科特来说,这可能意味着要与占人口20%的以色列阿拉伯人进行谈判。然而,他阵营中的两个合作伙伴表示,他们拒绝参与包含阿拉伯人的政府。
A result along those lines will require the winner to bring in other parties, which for Eisenkot could mean holding talks with the Israeli Arabs, who make up 20% of the population. Two of the partners in his bloc say they’ll refuse to take part in a government that includes Arabs, however.
艾森科特对外交的支持在一定程度上是出于务实考虑。据军方估计,在黎巴嫩、叙利亚、加沙、西岸、也门、伊拉克以及针对伊朗的广泛行动后,以色列军队面临严重的人力短缺,缺口约为1.5万名人员,其中包括约8000名一线士兵。
Eisenkot’s support for diplomacy is partly pragmatic. Israel’s army is facing severe manpower shortages after extensive operations in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, the West Bank, Yemen, Iraq, and against Iran, missing around 15,000 personnel and some 8,000 frontline soldiers, according to army estimates.
作为前总参谋长,以及加沙战争最初几个月紧急战时内阁的成员,他说自己曾目睹内塔尼亚胡无视战略规划的必要性,并掏空了国家安全委员会。
As army chief of staff and, in the first months of the war in Gaza, a member of the emergency war cabinet, he says he watched Netanyahu dismiss the need for strategic planning and hollow out the National Security Council.
艾森科特的X账号发布的内容,较少涉及政策声明,更多是致力于吸引内塔尼亚胡传统支持基础和宗教支持基础中的选民,特别是北非和中东裔以色列人。
Eisenkot’s X feed, though, has been less focused on policy statements and more on attracting voters from Netanyahu’s traditional and religious base, particularly Israelis of North African and Middle Eastern descent.
本月初,挺内塔尼亚胡的评论员伊农·马加尔(Yinon Magal)称他为“身后站着精英阿什肯纳兹犹太人的猴子”,艾森科特表示不会用回应来给这种言论增添体面。他转而发布了一段竞选集会的视频,画面中支持者高唱以色列国歌;随后又发布了前内塔尼亚胡支持者承诺将投票给他的视频。
Earlier this month, after pro-Netanyahu commentator Yinon Magal described him as “a monkey with elitist Ashkenazi Jews behind him,” Eisenkot said he would not dignify the remark with a response. He instead posted footage of a campaign rally where supporters sang Israel’s national anthem and later posted videos of former Netanyahu supporters pledging to vote for him.
艾森科特周四在一档播客节目中说,挺内塔尼亚胡阵营“已突破所有底线”,并补充道,他在竞选途中遇到的选民“厌倦了这种谎言文化、分裂文化,他们想看到一种不同的现实”。
The pro-Netanyahu camp “is crossing every line,” said Eisenkot on a podcast Thursday, adding that the voters he’s met on the campaign trail “are tired of this culture of lies, of division, and they want to see a different kind of reality.”