伦敦，10月30日——路易吉·洛瓦廖终于在并购之路上撞上了墙。这位市值330亿欧元的锡耶纳蒙特帕斯基银行首席执行官，曾成功发动大胆的敌意收购拿下中意银行，却于周四被自家股东否决了收购另外两家银行的提案。洛瓦廖抵御意大利圣保罗银行敌意收购的防线如今岌岌可危，意大利银行业诞生更有竞争力的“第三极”的残存希望也随之破灭。
LONDON, Oct 30 - Luigi Lovaglio has finally hit an M&A wall. The CEO of €33 billion Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena who pulled off an audacious hostile takeover of Mediobanca, was on Thursday blocked by his own shareholders from a bid to buy two other banks. Lovaglio's defence against Intesa Sanpaolo's hostile offer is now in trouble, as are any lingering hopes for a more competitive third force in Italian banking.
该计划向来大胆。锡耶纳蒙特帕斯基银行与中意银行的整合才刚刚开始几个月，市值1000亿欧元的国内巨头意大利圣保罗银行便杀入局面，提出的收购报价目前价值约为每股10.8欧元。按交易宣布时的价格计算，溢价仅为15%左右。
The plan was always bold. Barely months into the integration of Monte dei Paschi and Mediobanca, €100 billion domestic giant Intesa stepped in with a bid that's currently worth nearly €10.8 a share. Using prices when the deal was announced, it’s a slim 15% premium.
洛瓦廖的应对之策是同步发起对贷款竞争对手Banco BPM和财富管理同行Banca Generali的收购要约，以抵御意大利圣保罗银行。这在政治层面颇具洞见：意大利圣保罗银行的交易将进一步壮大国内最大银行，而锡耶纳蒙特帕斯基银行的战略旨在打造一个市值610亿欧元的新集团。这种三方合并本可成为意大利银行业一支有力的“第三极”，这是政界长期期盼的。它还能让这家世界最古老的银行保持完整，而意大利圣保罗银行为安抚反垄断机构，将不得不拆分锡耶纳蒙特帕斯基银行。
Lovaglio’s countermove was to launch simultaneous offers for lending rival Banco BPM and wealth peer Banca Generali to fend off Intesa. It seemed politically astute: whereas Intesa’s deal would empower the country's largest bank, the Monte dei Paschi strategy sought to create a new €61 billion group. The three-way union could have been a serious "third pole" in Italian banking, something politicians have long desired. It would also have kept the world's oldest bank intact, whereas Intesa will have to break it up to assuage antitrust authorities.
然而，股东们周四以压倒性多数否决了洛瓦廖的方案。这原本就是胜算渺茫的赌局：锡耶纳蒙特帕斯基银行一位实力雄厚的投资者、德尔韦基奥家族继承人的投资工具倒向了意大利圣保罗银行，此前曾与洛瓦廖交锋的大亨弗朗切斯科·加埃塔诺·卡尔塔焦内亦是如此。他们或许各有私心，但击沉该方案的不仅仅是本地权势人物：会上约91%的投票反对洛瓦廖的交易。
Yet shareholders overwhelmingly rejected Lovaglio’s plan on Thursday. It was always a long shot: one powerful Monte dei Paschi investor, the investment vehicle of the Del Vecchio heirs, swung behind Intesa, as did tycoon Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, who previously tussled with Lovaglio. They may have their own reasons, but it wasn’t just local powerbrokers who sank it: some 91% of votes at the meeting rejected the Lovaglio deals.
该计划伴随风险。洛瓦利奥提出的并购目标——意大利民众银行（BPM）和Banca Generali——并未公开回应他的示好，这增加了蒙特帕斯基银行可能不得不支付更高代价，或无法获得完全控制权的可能性。意大利联合圣保罗银行（Intesa）首席执行官梅西纳也打出了一张强有力的牌：他适度提高了收购价格，并承诺如果股东批准洛瓦利奥的方案，他将退出竞购。这或许是一招虚张声势，但蒙特帕斯基银行的投资者显然不愿冒险叫牌，即使这样做可能面临的下行风险极小。
The plan carried risks. Lovaglio's proposed M&A targets, BPM and Banca Generali, had not openly embraced his overtures, raising the prospect of Monte dei Paschi having to pay up or fail to secure full control. Intesa CEO Carlo Messina also played a powerful card, by modestly raising his price and pledging to walk away if the shareholders approved the Lovaglio plan. That could have been a bluff, but Monte dei Paschi investors were clearly not willing to call it, even if doing so might have presented minimal downside.
显而易见的是，蒙特帕斯基银行现在手握弱牌。股东随时可以坚持要价更高，但梅西纳几乎没有理由大幅提高报价，尤其是因为他似乎已获得蒙特帕斯基银行至少两大股东的支持。因此，这家规模较小银行的股价如今大致与联合圣保罗银行的报价价值持平，也就不足为奇了。
What’s clear is that Monte dei Paschi now has a weak hand Shareholders can always hold out for a higher price, but Intesa’s Messina has little reason to raise his offer much further, not least since he appears to have the backing of at least two of Monte dei Paschi's largest shareholders. It's no surprise then that the smaller bank's shares now trade roughly in line with the value of Intesa’s offer.
这一事件凸显了一个冷酷的并购现实：很难说服股东支持一个充满不确定性、仓促推出的反制举措，即使该举措具有合理的战略逻辑。当替代方案带有溢价时，情况尤为如此。在意大利，内部人士拥有巨大影响力，防御性手段可能错综复杂。其他欧洲标的曾成功抵御收购：例如西班牙萨巴德尔银行（Banco de Sabadell）应对西班牙对外银行（BBVA），以及意大利民众银行（Banco BPM）应对意大利联合信贷银行（UniCredit）。
The saga illustrates a cold M&A reality. It’s hard to persuade shareholders to back an uncertain, hurried counter-manoeuvre, even if it has a sound strategic logic. That's especially the case when the alternative carries a premium. In Italy, where insiders have substantial influence, defensive tricks can be complex. Other European targets have fended off deals: think Banco de Sabadell with BBVA or Banco BPM with UniCredit Yet in both cases the target benefitted from government help, which Lovaglio seemingly lacked.
然而，在这两种情况下，标的公司都受益于政府援助，而洛瓦利奥似乎缺乏这种支持。在防御性并购中，仅仅要求投资者着眼战略长远，很少能奏效。关注 @Unmack1
With defensive M&A, simply asking investors to take the strategic long-term view is rarely enough. Follow @Unmack1