尽管民主党候选人凯特·康利持中间派立场，当地进步派团体仍动员了大规模的地面拉票行动来支持她。
Local progressive groups have turned out a huge ground game to support Democratic nominee Cait Conley, despite her centrist leanings.
“当你挑战迈克·劳勒时，你就是在挑战有组织的劳工，”卡车司机工会主席肖恩·奥布莱恩上周在威彻斯特县为劳勒举行的一场集会上对纽约州第17国会选区的选民说。这是一个虚假、甚至厚颜无耻的说法：纽约州劳联-产联支持劳勒这位共和党人的民主党挑战者凯特琳·康利。美国通讯工人工会、SEIU1199、当地教师工会以及许多其他劳工团体也是如此，它们一如既往地支持这场竞选中的民主党人。
“When you take on Mike Lawler, you take on organized labor,” Teamsters president Sean O’Brien told New York 17th Congressional District voters at a rally for Lawler in Westchester County last week. It was a false, even brazen claim: The state AFL-CIO backs the Republican Lawler’s Democratic challenger, Caitlin Conley. So do the Communications Workers of America, SEIU1199, local teachers’ unions, and many other labor groups who are, as usual, supporting the Democrat in the race.
这并没有让奥布莱恩停下。当他居高临下地对康利说，是时候“戴上头盔、扣好下巴带，这是一项全接触运动”时，他也没有因为康利将成为纽约州首位进入众议院的女性特种作战老兵而感到收敛。问题是：康利似乎睡觉都戴着头盔。鉴于过去一年我从进步派选民那里听到的关于她的保留意见，主要的一点是她可能显得内敛，一点也不热情亲切，而且按进步派的标准来说有点鹰派。
That didn’t stop O’Brien. And he wasn’t chastened by the fact that Conley would be the first female special operations veteran from New York in the House of Representatives when he told her, condescendingly, it’s time “to put your helmet on and button your chin straps, it’s a full contact sport.”Here’s the thing: Conley would seem to sleep with her helmet on. Given the reservations I’ve heard about her from progressive voters over the last year, the main one is that she can be reserved, not at all warm or fuzzy, and is by progressive standards a little bit hawkish.
她给人的印象就是她作为一名陆军老兵的样子。但在该选区，没有人怀疑康利的勇敢或迎战准备。几天后在与我的通话中，康利对这位卡车司机工会领导人的大话嗤之以鼻。“我喜欢那些在9·11之后从未离开舒适沙发的人来谈论艰难战斗的样子。”她经常谈起自己十几岁时在2001年袭击事件后发誓参军。
She comes off as the Army veteran she is. But in the district, no one doubts Conley’s bravery or readiness for battle. Conley snickers at the Teamster leader’s braggadocio in a phone call with me a few days later. “I love how people who never left the comfort of their couch after 9/11 want to talk about hard fights.”She regularly talks about how she vowed as a teenager to join the military after the 2001 attacks.
劳勒是MAGA的忠实拥护者，偶尔会与总统决裂。但在两年前投票支持卡玛拉·哈里斯的选区，这可能不再是一份能获胜的纪录。因此他大肆强调自己与特朗普的分歧，以及他来自民主党人和工会成员的支持，并希望借此击败康利。
Lawler is a MAGA loyalist who has on occasion broken with the president. But in a district that voted for Kamala Harris two years ago, that may no longer be a winning record. So he plays up his differences with Trump, and his support from Democrats and union members, and he hopes he can get by Conley that way.
他可能不会。康利在6月的初选中击败了两位受欢迎的进步派女性对手，其中一些女性的支持者仍然有些不满，因为他们认为建制派民主党人在幕后支持这位退伍军人，而不是两位地方政界人士——罗克兰县议员贝丝·戴维森和塔里敦村受托人埃菲·菲利普斯-斯泰利，这两位女性多年来一直在立法层面为社区服务。众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯10月24日在皮克斯基尔与康利一同露面时，并未成为最大的吸引力。
He may not. Conley beat two popular, progressive female rivals in the June primary, and some of those women’s supporters are still a little bitter over what they perceive as establishment Democrats’ behind-the-scenes support for the military veteran, who had no local political record, over two local politicos, Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson and Tarrytown Village Trustee Effie Phillips-Staley, who have served their communities legislatively for years. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries didn’t prove to be the biggest draw when he appeared in Peekskill with Conley October 24.
大约200人的人群——其中许多是工会成员——在哈德逊河沿岸走动并鼓掌，尤其是当康利介绍他为“杰弗里斯议长”（他的热切愿望）时。但当天在别处，皮克斯基尔充斥着行动主义，因为该选区涌现的许多本地团体利用选举季倒数第二个周末聚集、培训志愿者并拉票。
A crowd of maybe 200 people, many of them union members, milled about along the Hudson River and applauded, especially when Conley introduced him as “Speaker Jeffries” (his fervent wish). But elsewhere that day, Peekskill was teeming with activism, as the many local groups who’ve emerged in the district used the next-to-last election-season weekend to gather, train volunteers and canvas.
康利这场竞选的悖论在于：如果她获胜，这位中间派至少部分要归功于一场进步派的反叛运动——这场运动在劳勒2024年获胜后凝聚起来，誓言要用一名民主党人击败他。许多人在6月初选中没有得到自己中意的候选人，但他们仍在努力。正如菲利普斯-斯塔利本人对我所说：“从民主党内的左翼到温和派，我们所有人一致认同的是，迈克·劳勒必须下台。”
The paradox of Conley’s race is that if she wins, the centrist will at least partly owe her victory to a progressive insurgency that came together after Lawler’s 2024 victory vowing to defeat him with a Democrat. Many didn’t get their chosen candidate in the June primary, but they’re still hard at work. As Phillips-Staley herself told me, “What we are all aligned on, from the left to the moderate within the Democratic party, is that Mike Lawler needs to go.”
多数民调显示民主党将赢得众议院，但康利的选情很重要。2022年，纽约州让民主党失去了众议院，丢掉五个蓝营席位，而当时该党在全国范围内仅差四席。今年的初选中，曼哈顿地区出现了大量左翼的胜利——三名民主社会主义者（DSA）成员，加上可靠的进步派布拉德·兰德和迈卡·拉舍——但他们下周都会获胜。在康利所在的纽约州北部，中间派自由派现任议员帕特·瑞安和乔什·赖利看起来稳操胜券。
Most polls show Democrats winning the House, but Conley’s race is important. New York cost Democrats the House in 2022, losing five blue seats, when the party nationwide only came up short by four. This year’s primaries saw a lot of lefty victories in the Manhattan area–three DSA members, plus reliable progressives Brad Lander and Micah Lasher–but they’ll all win next week. Upstate near Conley, centrist liberal incumbents Pat Ryan and Josh Riley look safe.
真正让周二晚上变得有看头的是康利，加上长岛多少有些脆弱的民主党中间派汤姆·苏奥齐和劳拉·吉伦，以及在埃莉斯·斯特凡尼克原席位上一个不太可能获胜的民主党赢家布莱克·根德比恩。
It’s Conley, plus somewhat vulnerable Democratic centrists Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen on Long Island, and an unlikely Democratic victor in Elise Stefanik’s former seat, Democrat Blake Gendebien, who will make Tuesday night interesting.
纽约第17选区是一个多元化的选区，包括多种族、拉美裔占相当比例的皮克斯基尔、睡谷和塔里敦；罗克兰、普特南和达奇斯三县仍有白人占绝大多数的区域，再加上绵延数英里的韦斯特切斯特市镇，其中一些至今仍是20世纪60年代那种白人一统天下的面貌，但大多数已非如此。该选区大约20%是犹太人，康利自称在以色列问题上持“平衡”立场——有些人认为她狂热亲以色列——这帮助这位民主党人赢得了许多选民的支持，但未能赢得精力充沛的亲巴勒斯坦左翼。
NY 17 is a diverse district, with multiracial, fairly Latino Peekskill, Sleepy Hollow, and Tarrytown; still pretty white segments of Rockland, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties, plus miles of Westchester cities and towns, some of which are still 1960s alabaster, but most are not. Roughly 20 percent of the district is Jewish, and Conley’s self-described “balance” on Israel—some consider her to be rabidly pro-Israel—is helping the Democrat with many voters, but not with the energetic pro-Palestine left.
她告诉我：“这正是我一贯的立场，作为一个上过战场的人，我最不愿看到的就是更多的人类苦难。”“我确实认为我们必须实现两国方案，让以色列和巴勒斯坦都获得平等的安全、保障和主权。美国应当推动实现这一目标，而不是只停留在口头承诺上。”尽管康利反对民主党一些限制向以色列出售武器的举措，但她坚称自己“会批评内塔尼亚胡政府，或任何我认为对以色列和美国做了错事的政府”。
“This is where I have been consistent, and as someone who has been to war, the last thing I want to see is more human suffering,” she tells me. “I do believe we have to get to a two-state solution, where there’s equal safety, security, and sovereignty for Israel and Palestine. And that America should be pushing to deliver on that and not just give it lip service.”Although Conley has opposed some Democratic moves to limit sales of weaponry to Israel, she insists that she “will criticize the Netanyahu administration or any administration I believe is doing the wrong thing for Israel and America.”
该选区大约一半的选民是退伍军人、执法人员或公职人员（康利的母亲曾是邮政工人）。康利的军旅经历以及她家族的公共服务背景，引起了当地许多选民的共鸣。一位白人选民、进步派志愿者告诉我，她发现康利的服役经历对一些拉美裔选民具有吸引力，而母亲来自萨尔瓦多的菲利普斯-斯塔利表示她并不意外。“我父亲是退伍军人，拉美裔文化有时可能偏保守一些，这没什么。”
About half of the district’s voters are either veterans, law enforcement officials, or public employees (Conley’s mother was a postal worker). Conley’s military experience, as well as her family’s public service, resonates with many voters in the area. A white progressive volunteer told me she found that Conley’s military service was a draw to some Latino voters, and Phillips-Staley, whose mother is from El Salvador, said she wasn’t surprised. “My dad was a military veteran, and Latino cultures can sometimes be a little conservative, and that’s fine.”
康利说，她的军旅经历能够跨越种族和党派吸引选民。“我已经表明，我愿意为这个国家、为我们的社区做正确的事，即使艰难，即使危险，我也愿意冒着生命危险，保护这个国家，为我们的未来而奋斗。”“而且这也带来了一定程度的信任，”康利在采访中对我说。
Conley says her military service is a cross-racial, cross-party draw. “I have shown that I’m willing to do the right thing for this country in our community, even when it’s hard, even when it’s dangerous, I’m willing to put my life on the line, to protect this country and fight for our future. And there is a degree of trust that comes with that,” Conley told me in our interview.
“共和党人走到我面前说：‘我从来没投过民主党，但我会投给你，因为你是退伍军人。’”尽管我能在该选区找到许多对康利存有疑虑的进步派人士——毕竟我是为《国家》杂志撰稿——但我遇到的几乎所有人在初选后都团结在她身后。一些人认为，他们帮助她最好的方式是关注低投票倾向选民、低收入和/或拉丁裔选民，因为康利竞选团队专注于让已登记的民主党选民回心转意，并争取一些独立选民和共和党人，可能会忽略这些群体。
“I’ve had Republicans come up to me and say, ‘I’ve never voted for a Democrat, but I’m voting for you because you’re a veteran.’”Even though I could find plenty of progressives in the district with reservations about Conley—hey, I write for The Nation—virtually everyone I met united behind her, post-primary. Some believe they are helping her most by focusing on the low-propensity voters, low-income and/or Latino, that the Conley campaign may miss as it focuses on getting registered Democrats back in line, plus adding some independents and Republicans.
其他进步派则专注于赢回那些被劳勒的两党合作姿态所迷惑的民主党选民。另一个需要争取的关键选民群体是那些因民主党在近期国会竞选中的花招而感到疏远的选民。
Other progressives are focused on winning back Democrats who’ve fallen for Lawler’s bipartisan shtick. Another key group of voters to reach will be those who’ve been alienated by the party’s shenanigans in recent congressional races.
自1986年以来，纽约第17选区一直是民主党的席位，2020年选出了进步派蒙代尔·琼斯。但重新划分选区让民主党国会竞选委员会（DCCC）主席、时任纽约第18选区众议员肖恩·帕特里克·马洛尼进入了2022年新划定的第17选区，迫使琼斯退出竞选。琼斯转而搬到纽约第10选区——一个涵盖曼哈顿下城和布鲁克林的选区——参选，对阵“工大家庭党”的刘汝琳，两位进步派最终都败给了靠自费竞选的李维斯家族大亨、自由派律师丹·戈德曼。
A Democratic seat since 1986, New York 17 elected progressive Mondaire Jones in 2020. But redistricting put DCCC head Sean Patrick Maloney, the representative in New York 18, in the newly drawn 17 for 2022, pushing Jones out of the race. Jones wound up moving to and running in New York 10, a lower Manhattan and Brooklyn district, against Working Families Party’s Yuh-Line Niou, and both progressives lost to the self-funding Levi’s family tycoon and liberal lawyer Dan Goldman.
马洛尼被广泛指责在去年10月忽视自己的竞选，转而为欧洲的民主党人筹款，最终以1800票之差败给了劳勒。2024年琼斯再次在纽约第17选区参选时，党内出现分裂，劳勒已在民主党选民中渗透，尽管哈里斯在该选区的总统选票上获胜，琼斯仍以令人沮丧的2.4万票之差败给了劳勒。
Maloney, widely accused of ignoring his own race to raise money for Democrats in Europe that October, lost to Lawler by 1,800 votes. When Jones ran again in NY-17 in 2024, the party was split, Lawler had made inroads with Democrats, and, despite Kamala Harris winning the district at the top of the ticket, Jones lost to Lawler by a depressing 24,000 votes.
在许多人在该选区所称的“蒙代尔烂摊子”之后——公平地说，琼斯并非主要制造烂摊子的人——当地进步派组成了一个由大约35个团体组成的联盟，称为“第17国会选区社区联盟”。“DCCC（民主党国会竞选委员会）操办了最近两场竞选并输了，”其主任蒂娜·沃尔兹-邦加尔说。第17国会选区社区联盟致力于建立DCCC未能创建的基层竞选机制。
After what many in the district call “the Mondaire mess”—and to be fair, Jones didn’t mainly make the mess—local progressives came together in a coalition of roughly 35 groups, known as the CD 17 Community Coalition. “The DCCC had run these last two campaigns and lost,” says its director, Tina Volz-Bongar. CD 17 Community Coalition committed to building a ground game that the DCCC had failed to create.
包括20个小型“Indivisible”（不可分割）分会在内的当地进步派，加上当地非营利组织，于2025年组织起来，此后几乎每周开会一次。“人们说我们生活在一个紫色选区，但那是因为民主党人不出来投票，”沃尔兹-邦加尔补充道。事实上，该选区拥有1个百分点的民主党选民登记优势，并被《库克政治报告》评为势均力敌。
Local progressives, including 20 small Indivisible chapters plus local nonprofits, got organized in 2025 and have been meeting almost weekly since. “People say we live in a purple district, but that’s because Democrats don’t come out to vote,” Volz-Bongar adds. In fact, the district has a one-point Democratic voter registration advantage, and is rated a toss-up by The Cook Political Report.
但从人口结构来看，它本应比现在更蓝。康利背后的多元联盟正试图弄清为什么不是这样。
But judging by demographics, it should be bluer than it is. The diverse coalition behind Conley is trying to figure out why it’s not.
就在杰弗里斯造访皮克斯基尔的同一个周六，“第17国会选区社区联盟”在该市的公共住房和“第8节”住房小区举办了“自由民主甜甜圈与咖啡”活动。“工作家庭党”成员正在挨家挨户敲门拉票。此外，总部设在皮克斯基尔的深度拉票组织“拉票连接者”与“加一”组织合作，在一家当地咖啡馆举办了开放日活动；“加一”专注于让选民通过共进餐食与朋友邻里建立联系。
So on the same Saturday that Jeffries visited Peekskill, the CD 17 Community Coalition hosted “Free Democracy Donuts and Coffee” events at the city’s public and Section 8 housing complexes. Working Families Party members were out knocking doors. In addition, Canvassing Connectors, a deep-canvassing group based in Peekskill, partnered with Plus One, which focuses on voters linking up with friends and neighbors over meals, for an open house at a local café.
“加一”联合创始人艾米莉·西莫内斯告诉我，该组织发现很难达到聚会数量目标。“但一旦人们真正参与行动，他们就会感到兴奋，并意识到我们共享的人性，以及我们的共同点比算法告诉我们的要多，”她说。“我真心觉得，我们恢复文明社会的部分途径，就是面对面地在一起。”“拉票连接者”同样强调长期关系和线下聚会。
Plus One has found it challenging to meet its gathering goals, cofounder Emily Simoness tells me. “But once people actually do the work, they are thrilled, and they’re reminded of our shared humanity, and that we have more in common than the algorithm might tell us,” she says. “I really feel like part of how we get back to being a civil society is by being in person together.”Canvassing Connectors likewise emphasises longer-term relationships and in-person gatherings.
“我们一直告诉拉票对象‘我们要办个派对’，”“拉票连接者”联合创始人艾伦·查普尼克在邀请我去咖啡馆参加活动时对我说。“好吧，这就是派对！”就在杰弗里斯的滨水集会前不久，“食品与水源行动”组织发起了一场“阻止数据中心”集会。那个阳光明媚的周六，你在小而雅致的皮克斯基尔市中心街道上行走，不难发现有人在为康利竞选助选。
“We’ve been telling people we canvass that ‘we’re gonna have a party,’” Canvassing Connectors cofounder Ellen Chapnick told me, when she invited me to join them at the café. “Well, this is the party!”Food and Water Action sponsored a Stop Data Centers rally just before Jeffries’s waterfront gathering. You couldn’t walk the streets of the small, quaint Peekskill downtown that bright Saturday without spotting someone working to elect Conley.
康利表示，她对所获得的所有帮助心存感激。尽管存在意识形态差异，她并不认为自己的初选是一场恶斗。“我们共同点远多于分歧。而我们如何对人们的生活产生积极影响，必须成为我们的关注焦点。”忠于她一贯的风格，康利补充说，她不仅关注民主党选民，还要在自己的联盟中为独立选民和共和党选民留出位置。
Conley says she’s grateful for all the help. Despite ideological differences, she didn’t perceive her primary as a bitter one. “We shared a lot more than we differed on. And how we make a positive impact on people’s lives has to be our focus.”True to her brand, Conley added that she wasn’t only focused on Democrats but making a place in her coalition for independents and Republicans.
获得“劳动家庭党”背书的菲利普斯-斯泰利也表示，在初选结束前，女性候选人就已结成共同事业。“我们本可以互相攻击得恶毒得多。但总的来说，所有候选人相处得都相当融洽。因为我们明白——并在初选期间反复强调——使命是击败迈克·劳勒。我们在许多辩论和论坛上都说过，我们最终都将在大选中与他对决。”事实也的确如此。康利赢得初选后，“劳动家庭党”随即背书支持她。
Phillips-Staley, endorsed by the Working Families Party, also said the female candidates made common cause before the primary was over. “We could have been a lot nastier to each other. But for the most part all the candidates got along pretty well. Because we understood—and we said it repeatedly during the primary—that the mission is to defeat Mike Lawler. What we said in many debates and in many forums is that we would all be running against him in the general.”And so they are. The WFP endorsed Conley once she won the primary.
即便到了这个阶段，民调依然胶着，难分伯仲。艾默生学院最新一轮民调显示，康利领先两个百分点，处于误差范围内。对民主党人而言，好消息是劳勒有望失去一些他在2024年从蒙代尔·琼斯手中赢来的民主党选民支持。据艾默生学院数据，那一年有20%的民主党选民支持劳勒；今年这一比例降至12%，而康利正赢得10%的共和党选民支持，琼斯仅获4%。
Even this late in the game, the polls are too close to call. The last Emerson College poll had Conley up by two points, within the margin of error. The good news for the Democrat was that Lawler was on target to lose some of the Democratic support he won away from Mondaire Jones in 2024. That year, according to Emerson, 20 percent of Democrats supported Lawler; this year it’s down to 12 percent, while Conley is grabbing 10 percent of Republicans, and Jones just 4 percent “Had Democrats stayed on the side of the Democratic Party, Mike Lawler would not have won,” Phillips-Staley told me.
“如果民主党选民坚持支持民主党，迈克·劳勒就不会赢，”菲利普斯-斯泰利告诉我。尽管如此，她依然将最多精力投入到争取无党派、低投票倾向的拉美裔非投票人群身上。
She is nonetheless working hardest on unaligned, low-propensity Latino nonvoters.