
谁的周末更糟糕——是币安加密货币交易所,还是以科技股为主的纳斯达克?令人失望的财报引发了科技股和AI股的抛售,而币安报告称黑客窃取了63亿美元。
Which had a worse end of the week—the Binance crypto exchange or the tech-heavy Nasdaq? Disappointing earnings reports triggered a selloff in tech and AI shares, while Binance reported hackers pilfered $6.3 billion.
近期市场因对AI成本和风险的担忧以及地缘政治不确定性而动荡不安。再加上下周的美国中期选举,股价已不再能无视坏消息。谷歌母公司Alphabet周四至周五暴跌14%,市值蒸发约5000亿美元。
Markets have lately been jittery owing to concerns about AI costs and risks, and geopolitical uncertainty. Throw in the U.S. midterm elections next week, and stock prices are no longer blowing through bad news. Google’s Alphabet plunged 14% between Thursday and Friday, erasing some $500 billion in market value.
谷歌最近一个季度的广告收入低于投资者预期,引发外界担忧AI可能正在蚕食其搜索引擎。搜索广告是谷歌收入的关键来源,谷歌一直用这笔收入为其AI建设提供资金。如果更多人使用AI大语言模型进行搜索,这可能减少谷歌的收入,使其更难、成本更高地为AI雄心提供资金。
Google’s advertising revenue during the latest quarter undershot investor expectations, raising worries that AI may be cannibalizing its search engine. Search ads are a key source of Google revenue, which it has used to fund its AI build-out. If more people use AI large-language models for search, that could reduce Google’s income and make it harder and costlier to fund its AI ambitions.
还有人持续担忧,谷歌可能难以像传统搜索那样将其自有大语言模型Gemini和AI搜索工具变现。但好的一面是,由于对其AI工具和定制芯片的需求增加,谷歌云部门收入同比增长了一倍,这可能对英伟达及其高成本芯片构成竞争威胁。
There are also lingering concerns that Google may struggle to monetize its own large-language model Gemini and AI search tools to the degree it has traditional search. But on the bright side, revenue from Google’s cloud unit doubled from a year earlier from increased demand for its AI tools and custom chips, which could pose a competitive threat to Nvidia and its high-cost chips.
英特尔的境况比谷歌更糟,这家芯片制造商股价周五暴跌29%。AI是间接的罪魁祸首。来自谷歌和OpenAI等超大规模云服务商的旺盛需求推高了存储芯片价格,进而推高了个人电脑和智能手机等设备的价格。这正在损害运行英特尔传统芯片的个人电脑市场。
Intel had an even worse day than Google, with the chip-maker’s stock price plunging 29% on Friday. AI was indirectly to blame. Surging demand from hyperscalers like Google and OpenAI has driven up prices for memory chips and, consequently, devices like PCs and smartphones. This is hurting the market for PCs, which run on Intel’s legacy chips.
亚马逊股价周五同样大幅下挫,此前该公司公布的资本支出高于预期,且现金流为负。这加剧了市场担忧,即人工智能基础设施建设的成本正被证明高于预期。更多证据?Meta本周发行了250亿美元新股,而微软宣布发行250亿美元债券。
Amazon’s stock on Friday also took a header after the company reported higher than expected capital spending on AI and negative cash flow. This amplified market concerns that the AI build-out is proving more expensive than anticipated. More evidence? Meta this week floated $25 billion in new shares while Microsoft announced a $25 billion bond offering.
尽管Meta和微软的发行均获得强劲需求,但投资者担心人工智能投资的回报不足以在财务上支撑这些公司。超大规模云服务商届时可能不得不收缩投资,这可能冲击整个人工智能生态系统。这可能会打击目前利润丰厚的芯片制造商,如英伟达和美光科技。
While the Meta and Microsoft offerings drew strong demand, investors are nervous that the payoff from AI investments won’t be enough to financially sustain them. At some point hyperscalers may have to pull back, which could hurt the entire AI ecosystem. That might hit chip makers like Nvidia and Micron Technology that are currently churning out huge profits.
这在很大程度上解释了其他人工智能相关股票的暴跌,拖累纳斯达克指数周五下跌3%。鉴于大量资金涌入任何声称拥有人工智能概念的公司,回调或许在所难免。
This in large part explains the routs in other AI-related stocks, which dragged the Nasdaq down 3% on Friday. A correction was probably inevitable given the waves of capital that have been pouring into any company claiming to have an AI angle.
说到暴跌,币安周四晚间报告称,黑客从该交易所的数字钱包中窃取了价值63亿美元的稳定币和其他数字资产。币安是全球最大的加密货币交易所,这是有史以来最大的已知加密货币盗窃案。
Speaking of routs, Binance late Thursday reported that hackers had stolen $6.3 billion in stablecoins and other digital assets from the exchange’s digital wallets. Binance is the world’s largest crypto exchange, and this is the biggest known crypto heist in history.
币安暂停了提币业务,并表示计划动用应急储备基金和公司资产以保障客户利益,但目前不清楚这需要多长时间。而加密货币圈此前曾向我们保证稳定币是安全的。他们说,无需担心承诺高收益的加密货币交易所吸走银行存款。看吧妈,零风险。显然是有风险的。
Binance suspended withdrawals and said it plans to tap an emergency reserve fund and company assets to keep customers whole, though it’s not clear how long this could take. And here the crypto crowd has assured us that stablecoins are safe. No need to worry if crypto exchanges promising hefty yields draw deposits from banks, they say. Look ma, no risk. Apparently there is.
此处可能的人工智能关联在于,该技术正使网络黑客和窃贼更容易渗透甚至那些长期被认为安全的系统。朝鲜作为币安黑客的嫌疑对象,即便没有人工智能或许也能攻入。但币安黑客事件发生在一连串其他网络攻击之中。如果还没有的话,美国每一家企业都需要加强网络安全防御。
The possible AI link here is that the technology is making it easier for cyberhackers and thieves to penetrate even systems long thought to be safe. North Korea, the suspected Binance hacker, might have been able to break in without AI. But the Binance hack came amid a spate of other cyberattacks. If it isn’t already, every business in America needs to ramp up its cybersecurity defenses.
这一切都不足以引发监管层的恐慌,但政府可以做更多工作,提醒私营部门参与者注意威胁,以及如何防御和应对。人工智能狂热时代正在结束,取而代之的是更多谨慎,这意味着未来将出现更多像本周这样的市场行情周。
None of this is cause for regulatory panic, but government can do more to alert private actors about threats and how to defend and respond. The era of AI euphoria is ending, in favor of more caution, and that means there will be more market weeks like this one.