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卡塔尔方面在德黑兰举行马拉松式会谈,力争在中期选举前达成美伊协议Qataris hold marathon talks in Tehran in bid for U.S.-Iran deal before midterms

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本周,通勤者骑车经过德黑兰一幅描绘已故最高领袖阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊的大型广告牌。图片来源:Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty ImagesCommuters ride past a large billboard depicting slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran this week. Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

卡塔尔调解人周五在德黑兰进行了长达12个多小时的会谈,试图达成协议,重启美伊直接谈判,并在中期选举后避免战争爆发,外交消息人士透露。

Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran for more than 12 hours on Friday in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and avoid an outbreak of war after the midterms, according to diplomatic sources.

  • 讨论将于周六在卡塔尔多哈继续进行。

• The discussions will continue in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday.

为何重要:美国距离可能发动军事行动仅剩几天,该行动将对伊朗造成巨大破坏,并极可能导致伊朗对以色列和多个海湾国家实施报复性打击。

Why it matters: The U.S. is now just days away from a possible military operation that would inflict enormous damage on Iran and likely lead to retaliatory strikes against Israel and a host of Gulf countries.

新闻背景:一位外交消息人士称,卡塔尔调解人在周五的全天会议期间与白宫保持定期联系。

Driving the news: A diplomatic source said Qatari mediators were in regular contact with the White House during Friday's daylong session.

  • “取得了积极进展。谈判仍在继续,旨在促成美伊之间的协议,”该消息人士表示。

• "There was positive progress. Talks are still ongoing in an effort to unlock a deal between the U.S. and Iran," the source said.

  • 卡塔尔方面正敦促美伊双方就一套将在几天内实施的互惠步骤达成一致,使双方重返关于伊朗核计划及其他问题的直接谈判桌。

• The Qataris are prodding the U.S. and Iran to agree on a set of reciprocal steps that would be implemented over a few days and get the parties back to direct talks on the Iranian nuclear program and other issues.

  • 一位美国官员表示,两个相互竞争的要求迄今阻碍了谈判:特朗普政府坚持伊朗在恢复谈判时作出核让步,而伊朗则要求美国先解除海上封锁、释放冻结资金并允许其出售石油。

• A U.S. official said two competing demands have stymied the talks so far: the Trump administration's insistence that Iran make nuclear concessions as part of resuming talks, and Iran's stipulation that the U.S. first lift its naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow it to sell oil.

  • 卡塔尔方面正试图说服伊朗允许联合国核查员访问其遭轰炸的核设施,作为一项建立信任措施,美国将以一定程度的制裁减免作为回应。

• The Qataris are trying to convince Iran to allow U.N. inspectors to visit its bombed nuclear sites as a confidence-building measure that the U.S. would respond to with some sanctions relief.

内幕:特朗普核心圈子内部对于他应采取何种行动存在不同看法。

The intrigue: Inside Trump's inner circle, there are different opinions on what he should do.

  • 国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯和国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥对能否与现伊朗政权达成任何核协议持高度怀疑态度。一位美国官员称,他们认为特朗普的政治遗产应是进一步削弱该政权,包括实施进一步打击。

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are highly skeptical that any nuclear agreement can be reached with the current Iranian regime. They think Trump's legacy should be to weaken the regime even more, including with further strikes, a U.S. official said.

据此人透露,虽然副总统万斯以及特朗普特使维特科夫和库什纳希望重启谈判,但特朗普怀疑伊朗永远不会同意达成他能接受的协议。

• The person said that while Vice President Vance and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner want to resume negotiations, Trump is skeptical Iran will ever agree to a deal he finds acceptable. • "There are talks. They want to talk.

特朗普周五对记者说:“正在进行谈判。他们想谈。他们一直在谈。……坦白说,我们有时间。这是一场战争,但不是典型的战争。”

They keep talking. ... We have time, frankly. It's a war, but it is not a typical war," Trump told reporters on Friday.

财政部长贝森特正在领导一项名为“经济贱民行动”的经济施压行动,他是敦促特朗普让该计划继续发挥作用、而不是急于重返战斗状态的最亲密助手之一。

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading an economic pressure campaign dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast," is one of Trump's closest aides urging him to let the initiative play out rather than rush back into combat.

放眼全局:一位地区消息人士称,埃及、土耳其、伊拉克、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯等地区国家一直在敦促伊朗同意在中期选举前重启谈判。

Zoom out: Countries in the region like Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been urging Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the midterms, a regional source said.

一位美国官员表示,如果共和党在中期选举中惨败,特朗普可能更倾向于下令发动大规模军事行动。

• One U.S. official said Trump might be more inclined to order a major military operation if Republicans lose badly in the midterms.

该官员说:“如果他感到尴尬或被剥夺了权利,他会采取大胆行动。这是大家正在告诉伊朗人的事。他们达成协议的最佳机会就是现在。”

• "If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised he will do something bold. That's what everyone are telling the Iranians. Their best shot to get a deal is right now," the official said.

一位白宫官员表示,选举结果不会成为特朗普在伊朗问题上决策的考量因素。沙特阿拉伯和土耳其领导人近日敦促特朗普为外交留出更多时间。

• A White House official said the election results won't be a factor in Trump's decision-making about Iran. • The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey urged Trump in recent days to allow more time for diplomacy.

与此同时,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡正在游说特朗普在选举后立即发动针对伊朗的联合行动。

• At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lobbying Trump to launch a joint operation against Iran immediately after the election.

大局观:重燃战火不仅可能导致伊朗遭受大规模破坏,还会波及海湾国家,加剧全球能源危机。

The big picture: Renewed war could lead to massive destruction not only in Iran but in Gulf countries, exacerbating the global energy crisis.

伊朗誓言,如果美国袭击其能源基础设施,将通过攻击沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特和巴林的石油天然气设施进行报复。

• Iran has vowed to respond to any U.S. strikes on its energy infrastructure by attacking oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

任何美国对伊朗的袭击都将与以色列联合进行。伊朗很可能会以导弹袭击进行报复,真主党也可能对以色列发动袭击。

• Any U.S. attack on Iran would be conducted jointly with Israel. Iran would likely retaliate with missile strikes, while Hezbollah could also wage attacks on Israel.

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